MUCH has been saying and written about census on one hand and conflict resolution and prevention on the other hand by many scholars, experts, and politicians etc. Some people even surprised us by arguing that Nigeria should not have a census now because of insecurity. Little did the people know that census is even a crucial panacea to put an end to insecurity not only in Nigeria but in most of the developing nations that are ravaged with war; counter wars and different forms of conflicts and insecurity. The whole essence of this article is to enlighten us on how conflict resolution and prevention can emerge with use of census figures, particularly nigeria with use of about to be conducted 2022 census results. I have published some write-ups on census in the past to expound expatiate the crucial importance of census to solicit for the unflinching support of every individual and group of individuals for census in Nigeria. Among these articles are the following publications in Nigerian Tribune : {1.} “Census and Economic Development” (30th May, 2002). {2.} “Census and Globalization” (7th November, 2003). {3.} “Census as a Public Service” (11th August, 2004). {4.} “Census as the Crux of Sustainable Development Goals” (23rd October,2017).
This very article is also in the same vein with the previous articles on census, to enlighten the stakeholders the security agents and the general public on the crucial importance of census in putting an end to various forms of Conflicts that are confronting Nigeria now. The United Nations defines population census as “the total process of collecting, compiling, evaluating, analysing and publishing or otherwise disseminating demographic, economic and social data pertaining, at a specified time, to all persons in a country or in a well-delimited part of a country” and a housing census as “the total process of collecting, compiling, evaluating, analysing and publishing or otherwise disseminating statistical data pertaining, at a specified time, to all living quarters and occupants thereof in a country or in a well-delimited part of a country.” See United Nations (2008), paragraphs 1.4 and 1.6. Population census gives a complete and comprehensive picture of the size, composition and distribution of the population, which is a basis for evidence-based development planning, decision making and good governance. It also provides basic data for demographic, social, and economic analysis of the population, including population estimates and projections.
Census provides detailed statistics for small areas and small population groups for efficient governance at all levels. It provides the basic data required for allocating government funds among various regions and districts for education, health and other services, and delineating electoral districts at the national and regional, district, and lowest administrative regions in both urban and rural area levels. Similarly, housing census provides characteristics of the living quarters of the population. When population and housing censuses are carried out together, they provide a higher value since data on housing conditions could be analysed in association with the demographic, social and economic characteristics of the occupants and vice versa. Another important use of the population and housing census is that it provides a sampling frame for household surveys in the intercensal period. Census statistics are used as benchmarks for statistical compilation and for research and analysis. Population censuses are the principal sources of records for use as sampling frame for surveys during the inter-censal period. Population projection is one of the most important analytical outputs based on census data. Such projections can be done at national and sub-national levels.
On the other hand, conflict is a situation that occurs in every society and relationship, and it refers to confrontation between individuals or group resulting from opposite or incompatible ends or means. Also, as described by International Alert, conflict is one of the energies of life that seem common, natural and unavoidable. Social-economic differences are some of the factors that make conflict inevitable. Mostly, the social –economic differences emerge as a result inadequate plan or total absence of evidence-based plan, because of failure to integrate Population Census figure into annual budget or any infrastructural facilities like health, education, roads, electricity, water etc . Hence, conflict resolution, according to Lund (1997), is an effort to increase cooperation among the parties to the a conflict and deepen their relationship by addressing the conditions that led to the dispute, fostering positive attitudes and allying distrust through reconciliation initiatives and building or strengthening the institutions and process through which the parties interact. Again, Maluwa (1989) defines conflict resolution as changing reality either by reducing scarcity of a disputed value or resource, or by changing the casual factors that have made for antagonism and confrontation in the past. It can also consist of changing the demands of the actors so that a distribution of values is found that is subjectively acceptable to both of the actors and therefore agreed to.
In the same vein, conflict prevention is any action, policy, procedure or institution undertaken in a particular vulnerable place and time in order to avoid the threat or use of armed force and related forms of coercion by state or group, as the way to settle disputes that can arise from destabilizing effects of economic, social, political and national and international change. Conflict prevention can also include action taken after violent conflict to avoid it recurrence. Now that another census exercise is looming in Nigeria, and there are numerous conflicts confronting it, it is pertinent and important to further strengthen and reinforce the importance of census as related to conflict resolution and conflict prevention. Many internal conflicts are presently disturbing Nigeria and many countries of the world, particularly in Africa. While, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Yemen, Colombia are undergoing civil war, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Libya, Mali, Myanmar, Niger, Chad and the Democratic Republic of Congo, etc, are all facing different forms terrorism. In Nigeria, apart from terrorism, kidnapping and insurgency, there are many communal conflicts and boundary conflicts in different parts. But do we delay the census exercise because of these conflicts?
The answer is NO Nigeria needs a census now more than ever before. If the National Population Commission {NPC} can successfully demarcate entire country, including the troubled areas in preparation for the census for many months, there is no blinking the fact that the NPC can as well conduct credible, reliable and worldwide acceptable Census in Nigeria in less than a Month even with the unprecedented technology of Satellite Imagery with use of CensusPad to collect data.
It is pertinent and pathetic to note that these Conflicts in different Nations are causing terrible and colossal loss of lives and properties that made these Nations perpetually undeveloped. Many institutions have destroyed; economies cannot grow, greater proportion of the populace are in abject poverty and number of Internal Displaced People (IDP) and Refugees kept on increasing and the Conflicts continue to defied every solution.
One thing that is common in these Nations that experiencing different forms of Conflicts is inconsistency in conduct of Census exercise. In Afghanistan with Civil War and Terrorist, it is only 1979 that Census held. Even when the Country is conducting Housing listing between 2002-2005, there was no Census; Ethiopia postpones Census three times in 1984, 1977 and 2007; DRC conducted last Census in 1984; The last Census in Iraq with political unrest was in 1994; Mali with Insurgency and Civil War Conducted last Census in 2009. Here in Nigeria last Census was 2006. Hence, government could not provide evidence-based planning of provision of social economic infrastructural facilities for the greater proportion of the Populace to put an end to perpetual Conflicts and Civil War. What you will find in most of the developing Nations are numerous white elephant projects and political motivated projects that do not have any significant impact on the Populace. Hence, the people would continue to demand for good governance that would bring poverty alleviation, and bring to an end perceived exclusion and deprivation that constitute the root causes of many of the Conflicts in our Nation today. Again, it is with the use credible Census figure that government can have evidence based Planning that would give succour to the masses and happily support the government, bringing peace and tranquilize the entire the whole Nation.
The most peaceful Nations of the World today are Iceland, New Zealand Denmark, Canada. These Countries do not take issue of Census with levity. Iceland just conducted Census in 2020, in fact the 1st comprehensive Census in the World was conducted in Iceland in 1703 and ever since then the nation has been consistent in conducting Census. New Zealand had its last Census in 2018; Denmark in 2016; Canada in 2016. Therefore, it can be seen that there is positive correlation between tranquillity of a Nation and consistency of Census exercise of the Nation.
Evidence-based planning is needed for any project to have impact on the Populace. The Security Agents- the Military, Police, Naval Air-force, Civil Defence, even Amotekun etc must get the population figure of different trouble areas and indeed entire Country, if the trouble is to put to an end. It is with Census figure that Security Agencies can plan for the logistic; type and quantity of human and financial and equipment resources needed to put an end to any form of Conflict of any Nation. The Number of Personnel that we should have, the localisation and location of Infrastructures, Stations, and Barracks etc should be determined by the Census Figure. It is with the Census figure that formidable, efficient, effective plan that can put an end to all forms of Conflicts. The Conflict resolution would promote economic growth and economic development that would produce poverty alleviation brings peace to the Nation Nigeria.
In addition, Conflict resolution or Conflict prevention entails Early warning that refers to the set of activities that aim to collect, collate and analyse data in order to detect and identify the signs of emerging crisis before it explodes into uncontrolled violence of any form of Conflict. The use of credible Census figure is very critical and crucial in the Early warning, otherwise the Early warning would be based on false and faulty premise which would yield little or no result in Conflict Resolution of Conflict prevention. Other indicators like Political Indicators; Economic Indicator; Personal Security; Military build-up and expenditure; Social Indicators- that include demographic build-up, Environmental Indicators; Population changes and movements, Population density for Early warning analysis rest majorly on credible and reliable Population Census figure.
The achievement of these Securities can only be shown through the Population figure. It is with next Census Figure that these Security Agents can determine the proportion of coverage now, which will serve as baseline and set a target for another year on the proportion of Coverage to be achieved. It is in view of the target that various activities and interventions would be made. At the end of the Year our Security Agents should be able to give impact indicator that shown that targeted proportion of Population coverage achieved in relation to the specific mandates of the Security Agents. For, instance, Nigeria Police Force should be able to tell the Nation proportion of decrease in Crime in relation to the population; also Federal Roads Safety the proportion of reduction in Roads accidents in relation to the population.
For the purpose of attaining the target below Chain of efficient Monitoring Frame work could be adopted not only for our Security Agents but also for virtually every government establishment in the Country, with utilization of Census result.
Chain of efficient Monitoring Frame work Linking Inputs to Impact
The above indicators have to be monitored and evaluated at every point in time in course of implementation of the Annual or Strategic Plan of any government establishment including our Security Agents in the Country if we are to move forward in this Nation. And the only way by which this could be done is through Census Figure. Even private establishment that is smart enough can adopt this principle for Profit maximization. It is very good and very encouraging that High Monitoring is introduced in this year Budget for every Capital Expenditure, where general public would be able to monitor Capital Projects. However, the only way that the High Monitoring could be most effective and efficient in through the extent of impact of the Capital Projects on the Populace, which can only be determined through Population Census figure.
In addition, many UN Agencies and other International Agencies and donor Countries are interested in and expended on Census, not because they are Fathers Christmas but because they put high premium on impact of their programmes and projects on the good proportion of the Populace. For instance, UNFPA’s new strategic plan (2022-2025) focuses on accelerating progress towards achieving three transformative results: to end preventable maternal deaths; end unmet need for family planning; and end gender-based violence and harmful practices. There must empirical evidence to show achievement these three transformative results through the proportion of the Populace that impacted. And this can only be shown through Population Census figure. Hence, UNFPA and other UN Agencies are quite in support of the Census for the purpose of Conflict Resolution and Prevention. As it is stated in Article1 (para 1) of the Charter that ‘’the purposes of the UN are […] to maintain peace and security, and to that end : to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of treat to the Peace. And suppression and aggression or other breaches of the peace, and to bring about by peaceful means, and conformity with principles of justice and international law, adjustment or settlement of international disputes or situations which might lead to a breach of Peace” . Hence, focus of these UN Agencies is principally Conflict Prevention. That is why the activities of UNODC is to support Nations to put an end to many conflicts particularly as related to Crime and Drugs.
National Population Commission {NPC} is leaving no Stone unturned to give Nigeria unprecedented credible Census this year. The whole Nigeria has been demarcated into Enumeration Areas {EAs} which is units of Areas that can be completed by a pair of Enumerators within Census period. The pre-test of the Census is going on throughout the Federation and the Census is tentatively fixed for the Month of May 2022 until when the President will make a proclamation on the exact date of the Census.
In light of the above, it can be deduced that Census is quite indispensable in Conflict Resolution and Prevention in Nigeria and other Nations of the World. It then behoove on every individual and group of individuals to give NPC every support in this herculean task. Let us all promote 2022 Census for our Nation Nigeria so that we can have evidence based budget that can cater for all and sundry to put an end boko haram, terrorist, kidnapping, bandits etc and sleep with two eyes close.
- Komolafe, a deputy director at the NPC, is a former census specialist with UNFPA and planning specialist with the UNDP.
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