Koro Ibo, Oladejo and Lagos APC search for ransom

LET’S start with the lighthearted.

Last Thursday, I found myself in a “political” space with the Director General of the Bola Tinubu/Kadri Obafemi Hamzat Campaign Council of the Lagos chapter of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Musiliu Obanikoro.

Penultimate Friday, I had seen him on the big screen at the inauguration of the campaign council and dismissed the slim-fit image of his appearance as just some smooth digital enhancement, known among tech guys as filter, especially when what looked like a bulge on his biceps was projected, in the equally tight-fitting top he was wearing.

In my mind, there was no way “Koro Ibo” (his political sobriquet which means Koro the vote or Koro the vote harvester), after being around for this long, would remain the boyish-appearing fellow projected on television.

Last Thursday proved me wrong and right. Yes, Koro (the compressed form of his surname) has truly been around long enough, both in calendar count and political ageism (the ageing concept is being positively projected here as a mark of relevance and possessing the erudite experience) but his boyish look on the projector, days earlier, wasn’t a digital abracadabra! When he took my hand (and it appears his strong handshake is a deliberate expression of some kind of mental machismo), as he pumped and bumped hands around, demonstrating a felicity and warmth I would not have easily associated with him from a distance, I instantly felt the intensity!

Obanikoro, at 66+ is older but much stronger when our palms connected. Then the grip. Whoa!

I quickly ran an eye over him, particularly the biceps brachii since he was still in another short-sleeved top (looks like it’s his personal styling and a deliberate flaunt of his bulging arms which should not make anyone angry because he obviously worked for it).

This closer-to-70-than-60 egbon is a hunk. I’m not one to naturally drool over appearances but his isn’t deceptive! Somebody is putting in a lot of work to have that great shape. At least, I know someone born on December 13, 1967 (just 58+) who is now almost derelict due to reckless lifestyle, despite the almost-limitless cash at his disposal. There are many like that, with access to cash (almost always pilfered from the common purse), consuming the proverbial salt a Yoruba adage says you can’t take in anyhow simply because you are wealthy.

God says He gives pleasure not indulgence. If you are on a destructive path in the name of splurging, I can tell you categorically that there is a spirit demon leading you to an early grave. I whispered around about what the DG could be doing. Obviously he’s on an exercise regimen that requires a lot of discipline and self-denial, especially indulgences that should be easily available to his kind, considering his fame, money, connections, influences and reach in corridors of power (certainly it’s not an everyday assignment to lead a combined presidential and governorship campaign in the President’s backyard)!

Then the gist about him shunning fat by limiting himself to ponmo (cow hide) when dining anywhere! Maybe Nigerians don’t even know a lot about the leaders they think they know. I’m certain many would never think Koro a disciplined person in his private life, due to certain political issues in his past. Maybe he was actually right for his current assignment! Only time will tell. For those who may be envious of his lean core and abs, I recommend Proverbs 6:6.

The ruling party in the state of Mr. President is under pressure, seeking redemption.

One, it needs to win the January 16 presidential election and two, win it convincingly.

In the 2023 general election, the party won three-quarters of the four-layered exercise but lost the prized poll; presidential. The undisputed leader of the state ruling establishment, who scraped his 2023 presidency winning numbers from elsewhere, particularly North West and North Central; (the former seems drifting from him towards his erstwhile friend; Atiku of ADC, while the latter looks safe for him for now), is back on the ballot for his re-election and affliction can’t be seen to be rising the second time, according to Nahum 1:9.

Last time, Lagos APC could only give its leader, 572,606 votes, relinquishing the top spot to Peter Obi, then of Labour Party. Now the familiar foe is back as the presidential candidate of the NDC and the 2027 line-up is a rematch of sorts for the three frontrunners; Asiwaju, Atiku and Obi.

Should Lagos APC be worried? Absolutely. The forces that almost demystified its leader in his backyard about four years ago haven’t disintegrated completely though the potency of the uprising that powered Obi to the famous victory in Lagos doesn’t appear as sanguine again as it was then. The shrunk enthusiasm around Mr. Obi’s candidature this time in Lagos, especially among non-Igbo language speakers, hasn’t diminished the threat he poses to Asiwaju in the vote-rich state, and the local chapter of the ruling party seems very mindful of the Obi/Igbo/angry non-Igbo youths/Christians combined electoral danger to the President doing well among his “people” in the next year election.

At least, this time, there is no assumption the President will just wave his magic wand and his column would be filled with votes; an assumption severally identified as the undoing of the 2023 outing. The party in the state seems ready to “dirty” (used in positive sense of getting really down to business) its hands, doing what is required to redeem itself from the loss of face of the other time. Its campaign council is decked to the hilt, though considered a bit unwieldy by some outsiders. But for a party that its Lagos boss, Pastor Cornelius Ojelabi says is going to enter every corner to solicit votes for the President and the governorship candidate, the assemblage should be deemed fitting for the enormity of the assignment.

Either unintended or deliberately skewed, voting in Lagos is gradually receding to tribal supremacy fight and that may drive the turnout in the presidential election in the state, which even party insiders have concluded would require greater task to win than the governorship projection, which has Hamzat well ahead in practically all the polls conducted since his emergence as the party’s candidate. Yet for the party and the gubernatorial candidate, the President losing again in Lagos is not even a thought to consider; the question now is, by what margin.

While this may sound to many non-APC members of the public as optimism taken too far, considering that the election is squarely a referendum on Asiwaju’s performance, my little insight into the preparedness of the campaign suggests an organised process that is bound to be result-oriented, even if the winning numbers being considered are a bit unrealistic, even within the system.

Numbers between three and five millions have been thrown around as targeted votes for Asiwaju in Lagos but even with the way the election-regulating Electoral Act has been shaped, there is no world where close to five million voters (since Obi and Atiku voters would also participate) will vote within the time allotted for the exercise, regardless of the efficacy of the get-out-the-vote outreaches of the ruling party and others. So far, the best performance for the ruling establishment led by Asiwaju in Lagos since 1999 was the 2011 blowout re-election win of Babatunde Fashola over his PDP challenger, Ade Dosunmu. Fashola took 1,346,549 votes to Dosunmu’s 269,557. The crushing margin was 1.07 million votes and a win in 18 out of the 20 local governments!

Available data showed that since the Fashola epic performance, turnout has been dwindling with every election cycle and during the 2023 poll, all votes scored by all participating candidates including the winner (Obi), when added, weren’t still up to the Fashola figure of 16 years ago.

The moral of this story; the ruling establishment must find a way to reconnect with the Lagos electorate for an impressive turnout that can deliver as desired for the leader and KOH.

The most melodious of campaign jingles will sound like a dirge to a distraught voter. The unkind ones may even follow the rendering, with curses. There is something that is said about an angry man. I’m saying this here because I see it around.

I remember the recent Osun political battle between Adeleke of Accord/APC (he’s APC for the President) and Oyebamiji of APC. On a WhatsApp platform I belong to, an APC sympathiser hailed his candidate by saying “AMBO”, meaning we are cruising to victory or on our way to Osun government house. Someone who is his close friend but an Adeleke sympathiser, promptly replied to him “E ni de” (Yoruba saying for “you will never arrive or make it”.

The Oyebamiji man cried blue murder, charging the admin to sanction his friend for cursing him.

The matter wasn’t as easy as I relay it here.

I have also seen beautiful posters of unwanted candidates defaced through redrawing to look monstrous, despite the fellow being naturally comely.

Some analysts would argue that there is practically no independent left to convince among voters in Nigeria today. The political space is so dripping with tribal and religious emotions that the more you try to expose someone’s preferred candidate, the more stubborn the supporter gets in his support. He just locks up and whatever you say is the fault of his candidate becomes the endearing point for him, especially the not-too-literate voters who form the voting nucleus in Nigeria. That is why it’s almost useless attacking opposing candidates.

In trying to return to the “golden” era of Lagos, beloved by it, the ruling establishment has made a great dash off the blocks with the composition of its campaign team especially the very fit veteran (I stylishly envy him) leading. The early realisation that the race ahead is also a marathon and not a dash, is also the right mentality to stay the course and win impressively.

Concluding, I have a thought for the campaign which I deliberately didn’t verbalise last Friday for some reason.

Hon. Seye Oladejo was vaguely known to me when I was the Lagos Bureau Chief of Nigerian Tribune and he, the party’s official spokesperson. But Thursday was the first time I would listen to him speak that closely. Apart from being very passionate about the party and its success next year, he projects self as a stalwart who calls black the proverbial evil that it is as the Yoruba would describe straight shooting.

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I believe he has a message for his party. Is it possible for the front row members to hear him out, without prejudicing his intent? Yes, he spoke in my presence which is mostly for in-house consumption. It should be for those who need to hear it, especially those running the grassroots show.

And let nobody come and say it’s because of some primaries’ heartache. Yes, he lost but his message should be rewarding for all. I won’t deliver the message for him.

My Yoruba people will say “enu onikan la ti gbo kan”.

Won’t translate.