Ogun 2027: How far can Adebutu go in quest to succeed Abiodun as governor?

OLAYINKA OLUKOYA examines Ogun State governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Hon Ladi Adebutu, his performance in previous elections, the factors that could work in his favour, the obstacles he must overcome, the internal dynamics within the PDP and the likely strategies of the ruling party ahead of the 2027 polls.

AS the 2027 general elections draw near, the political landscape of Ogun State is taking shape.

Political parties have started strategising on how to win the hearts of the electorate in order to secure victory at the polls. From the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), among others, the battle to fill elective posts in various offices is gathering momentum.

Although the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has not lifted ban on political campaigns, there have been various engagements of stakeholders in the politics of the state.

However, the emergence of Hon. Oladipupo Adebutu as the standard bearer of the PDP is once again preparing him for what many believe could be his most defining political battle.

The question on the lips of the people of the state is: can Ladi Adebutu break the jinx? Can he succeed Dapo Abiodun who is from the same town Iperu Remo with Adebutu, same local government, Ikenne LG and same Ogun East senatorial district?

For Adebutu, a former member of the House of Representatives from 2011 to 2015, the journey of vying for the number one seat of the Gateway State is neither new nor easy. There is no gainsaying in the fact that the PDP candidate is a formidable opposition figure in Ogun politics, having contested for the governorship in 2023.

In 2019, he sought the PDP gubernatorial ticket but a court judgment recognised the late Senator Buruji Kashamu as the party’s candidate, following a protracted crisis within the party. Having spent over a decade building political structures across the state, Adebutu contested against the incumbent governor and his party came second in the election.

His relentless bid for the governorship has earned him experience, statewide visibility and ardent following. He has his supporters spread across the 20 local government areas of the state.

The 2027 general election therefore presents both an opportunity and a referendum on Adebutu’s political relevance. It is worthy of note that one of the greatest assets working in Adebutu’s favour is name recognition. His father, Sir Kensington Adebukunola Adebutu, is a renowned philanthropist. His contributions to national development and empowerment cannot be quantified. The name Adebutu is a household one in the country.

Unlike many politicians who emerge close to election season, Adebutu’s political identity is firmly established in Ogun State. He is deeply rooted in the political setting of the state.

From Ogun East to Ogun Central and Ogun West, his name enjoys considerable recognition. He has wide acceptability at the grassroots level as well.

Political observers also believe that the PDP candidate enters the race with the advantage of having contested the 2023 governorship election. That experience exposed the strengths and weaknesses of his campaign machinery and has given his team time to reorganise ahead of another electoral battle.

One major factor that could strengthen his chances is the desire among some sections of the electorate for political change after years of APC control of the state.

At a session with newsmen recently, the PDP governorship candidate revealed that his administration if voted into power would ensure local government autonomy for even development. He also emphasised on infrastructure, youth employment, economic opportunities, industrial development and social welfare.

Adebutu has consistently projected himself as a candidate committed to people-oriented governance, inclusive development and party unity. No doubt, the PDP will be a principal beneficiary should Ogun voters decide to vote for the party in the forthcoming governorship election.

However, the biggest challenge before Adebutu is confronting the political machinery of the ruling APC. Since 2011, the APC has maintained control of Ogun State, establishing extensive grassroots structures, and wielding significant influence across local government areas.

With the emergence of Senator Solomon Adeola as the APC candidate, the electoral path might not be easy for the PDP and its standard bearer to tread. Aside from the track records of Adeola, the Senate Committee Chairman on Appropriations, breaking the jinx of Ogun West producing the first number one citizen in the history of the 50-year-old state might be a major obstacle for Adebutu to realise his long-standing ambition.

According to sources, another challenge for Adebutu is his inability to convert previous popularity into electoral victory. Having contested multiple governorship elections without success, critics argue that he must convince undecided voters that this time offers something fundamentally different. While his supporters attribute past defeats to legal disputes, controversies and alleged irregularities, others insist that elections are ultimately won by building broader coalitions across political, ethnic and demographic lines.

READ ALSO: Ogun 2027: Adebutu unveils seven-point agenda

Historically, Ogun politics has witnessed intense intra-party rivalries capable of weakening otherwise formidable candidates. Although the consensus process that produced Adebutu suggests improved unity within the party, sustaining that harmony through the campaign season will require careful political management.

Interestingly, the PDP and Adebutu thought it wise to pick Alhaja Yemi Sowunmi-Kolapo, a seasoned journalist, from Ogun Central as the deputy governorship candidate. The choice of running mate is key for the party as Ogun Central, being the state’s largest voting bloc, has traditionally played a decisive role in governorship elections.

Similarly, Ogun East senatorial district will be another battleground for the PDP, with the decision of the APC to pick Mrs Kudirat Adegunwa- Balogun, a chartered accountant, and one of the daughters of foremost billionaire industrialist, Alhaji Adebola Adegunwa, as the party’s deputy governorship candidate. The PDP might record not too significant number of votes from Ogun West, as the district appears ready to fight it out in ensuring that the Ogun West agenda is pursued vigorously to achieve the long-term dream of producing the state helmsman by 2027.

The ability of the PDP governorship candidate to build strong alliances across these three senatorial districts may ultimately determine whether he can secure victory. Youth participation could also reshape the political equation.

Considering the present economic realities under the APC government vis-a-vis unemployment and the rising cost of living have made governance issues more prominent than ever before. The voters might not want the return of the party into power, as they might desire a change in government and style for better living. Some observers believe this factor might work in Adebutu’s avour and that of his party.

Adebutu might pull surprises if he can present practical solutions rather than political rhetoric and may enjoy an advantage among first-time and younger voters. Therefore, the campaign cannot rely solely on popularity or philanthropy. It must communicate a clear economic vision, articulate practical governance priorities and reassure voters that he possesses both the competence and political capacity to govern effectively.

Of note, is his ability to appeal beyond traditional PDP supporters as elections in Ogun State have increasingly been decided by swing voters, professionals, artisans, women, students and the growing urban population who tend to evaluate candidates on issues beyond party loyalty.

In his submission, former chairman of Ijebu East Local Government, Hon. Adewale Adedayo, argued that the ‘Yewa Lokan’ clamour is a fluke. He insisted that Adebutu is a core Ogun State indigene, not ‘imported’ into the state, hence, his wide acceptability by the people will work out for him.

Adedayo, a stakeholder from Ogun East Senatorial District, pointed out that the PDP governorship candidate has very clear agenda about agriculture, security, rural development and a firm commitment to allow financial autonomy for local governments.

He said: “Adebutu remains the Prince of Ogun East Senatorial District, with a father from Remo and an Ijebu mother. There is none of the nine Local Governments in Ogun East Senatorial District where you’ll not find footprints of Adebutu. He has helped solve many problems that should have attracted the attention of the state government across Remo and Ijebu. That is nine local governments out of 20.

“Now, Ogun Central Senatorial District has Senator Iyabo Obasanjo as the PDP senatorial candidate under Adebutu. Either when she was Commissioner for Health under the administration of Otunba Gbenga Daniel or during her tenure in the Senate, Iyabo Obasanjo distinguished herself across the six local governments of Egbaland. She is a game changer in terms of votes, given the fact that Ogun Central has the highest number of registered voters in Ogun State.”

“In Ogun West, the deciding factor appears to be Ado Odo/Ota Local Government Area. Non-indigenes are said to be about 70 percent of the population. They are very close to Lagos State and know the value of good governance. Already, they know the value of Adebutu. It is very clear that PDP will win this local government too.”

However, a political analyst, Bola Adeniji, stressed that the 2027 governorship aspiration of Hon Adebutu was a tall order, saying the depth of his pocket or the undoubtable social capital of his influential father can eviscerate so many hurdles about his ambition with Senator Adeola as the APC flagbearer.

He said: “The first hurdle that confronts Adebutu is the geographical disadvantage that he has struggled in recent times to manage. He comes from the same senatorial district, local government and electoral ward with the incumbent Governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun. For a state where the cry for emancipation by the people of Ogun West senatorial district is so deafening, it will be almost impossible for the people of Ogun State to concede to a succession between two kinsmen.

“Secondly, political observers have identified the weakness of the PDP as a gravely limiting factor in the Iperu-born politician’s quest for the top office in the state. In the last few weeks, chieftains and members of the PDP in the state have decamped in droves to the APC. Many of them have openly professed their support for the candidacy of YAYI in preference to Adebutu – whose ambition they described as “perpetual and directionless”. With a shrinking party structure, his capacity for grassroots mobilisation is weakened, making electoral success a forlorn hope.

“Political watchers have cited the strength of the ruling party and its candidate as unassailable hurdle for Adebutu. The APC ran a fairly successful primary that has not witnessed dissensions and activities since then have been about reconciliation and consolidation of the ticket given to the Senate Committee Chairman on Appropriation, Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola. Several stakeholders meetings have been held in recent weeks to harmonise aspirants and put in place formidable structures for the coming campaigns. This is in contrast to Adebutu’s solo run with a dicey ticket on his hands.”

Ultimately, the 2027 governorship election promises to be one of the most closely watched political contests in Ogun State’s democratic history. Adebutu’s emergence as the PDP flag bearer has removed uncertainty within the opposition and positioned him once again as the principal challenger to the ruling APC.