2027: Opposition split could strengthen Tinubu’s re-election bid — Analyst

The continued division among opposition parties could strengthen President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid in the 2027 presidential election, political, data and policy analyst Kolawole Johnson has said.

Johnson, who spoke on Channels Television’s Politics Today, said the opposition would need to form an alliance if it hoped to mount a serious challenge to Tinubu, warning that a divided opposition could allow votes to be shared among several candidates.

“If they don’t have the alliance, you can’t defeat Bola Tinubu,” he said.

He said the political dynamics ahead of the 2027 election would differ from those of 2019 and 2023, stressing that voters’ registration, collection of Permanent Voter Cards and developments closer to the election would be important in determining the eventual voting pattern.

Johnson also cautioned against relying solely on opinion polls to assess the likely outcome of the election, noting that survey research was only one of several methodologies available to political researchers.

According to him, “You have the science of the politics, which is ongoing, and you have the politics of the science of that politics, which is also ongoing.”

He added that politicians could influence the release of data in their favour as part of their electoral strategies, making it necessary to examine polling data alongside other indicators.

On the chances of the major opposition candidates, Johnson said former Vice President Atiku Abubakar was campaigning differently and could make inroads into areas currently supporting Tinubu.

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He also projected changes in the support base of Labour Party presidential candidate in the 2023 election, Peter Obi, particularly in the South-East and South-West.

“In the last election, check, for example, the South-East and maybe the South-West. The South-East is where he had, of course, the majority of his votes. Are you sure that he will still maintain the same number from the South-East? The answer is no, he will not,” he said.

Johnson said votes could shift among the major candidates as political campaigns intensify, adding that not all voters who had made early decisions would necessarily maintain those choices on election day.

He identified violence and vote-buying among factors capable of changing voting patterns between the period of polling and the actual election.

“You will have elections that people have decided, your survey will show you the candidate that will probably win, but you get to the election and money will change the entire direction,” he said.

The analyst also pointed to the North-West as a region that could influence the contest, particularly Kano, Kaduna and Katsina, saying political crises within the ruling All Progressives Congress in the region could affect Tinubu’s support.

“The North-West that you mentioned, for example, you know, the big states there with the votes, Kano, Kaduna, and Katsina, they are the big three. And I think if there are crises there, too, the beneficiary of that crisis will be Atiku,” he said.

Johnson maintained that Tinubu could still secure substantial support in states such as Ondo, Osun and Ekiti, although he said such support would not necessarily be determined by the performance of the governors in those states.

Asked what could substantially alter the current political calculations ahead of the 2027 election, Johnson identified insecurity as a major factor.

“I think whatever would change it against him, I think, may be insecurity. I don’t think it will be one of those things that we have on ground now, except that if we have some serious insecurity on our hand,” he said.