An Associate Professor of History at the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile Ife, Tunji Ogunyemi, speaks to DARE ADEKANMBI on the February 25 presidential election, the statement made by APC presidential candidate, Senator Bola Tinubu at Abeokuta, the enormous task before the next president, among other issues.
The presidential contest is just about four weeks and the candidates have been traversing the length and breadth of the country, seeking votes. What is your take on the state of the race?
I think most of the candidates should be commended for raising the level of political awareness across the country, particularly with respect to political communication and political socialization and the fact that they have come this far after the primaries. I think they should be commended for raising the level of political activities in the country.
Do you see the going election going into a run-off as has been predicted in some polls?
The February 25 presidential election will never go into any run-off. The election and the way I see it, the political calculations and permutations, including the revelations that we are now hearing in respect of different candidates, will not go into any run-off. In Nigeria, elections are not settled on the basis of quantum of votes. They are more importantly settled on the grounds of spread of votes and not just spread of votes but also the weight [width] of votes. It will be weightless for anybody, for example, who earned a significant amount of votes in a state, but whose votes do not amount to 25 per cent in that state. It is a waste. The fact that such a politician had a lot of crowd during political campaigning will not save him from political disgrace. So, this election will be a straight fight among the three gladiators that we already have and a clear winner will emerge in the first ballot.
What do you make of Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) assurances to Nigerians that the elections will be credible and technology will be deployed to sanitise the polls?
I will rather believe Nigerians for their capacity to make things happen for good in their country rather than INEC. I don’t think with the experience we had with INEC in Osun last year gives any hope to believe INEC is born again. I think INEC can be handling its own shenanigans, rather than dishing out information that is not really necessary to the public. Nigerians are better off now and can report anything that happens during elections. They can report violence, especially on social media. In fact, CSOs are doing a lot to mobilise Nigerians to go and collect their PVCs and vote more than INEC or the National Orientation Agency can even achieve. So, I don’t think whatever INEC says with respect to political socialization, mobilization and conscientising the people, it will do anything better because the statistics have shown that from one election to another, INEC has not significantly improved.
Does it worry you that there is instability in all the major parties ahead of the elections: The G-5 issue in PDP, President MuhammaduBuhari’s seeming lethargy towards the APC presidential candidate, Senator Bola Tinubu and so on, Labour Party is not spared?
Whatever happens, Nigerians hold the ace. Nigerians will do the deciding. When you talk about the president showing lethargy towards his party’s presidential candidate, has he not demonstrated graver and higher of lethargy in dealing with issues dealing with insecurity in his own state of Katsina? Is there anything that the president has shown any enthusiasm in handling in the country? Is it security, is it the economy? I think the only thing that he is enthusiastic in doing is only his personal health situation where he has taken several leaves to go and handle his personal health challenges.
The lethargy of the president now is proverbial and just true to type, very typical. Nigerians should take their destinies in their own hands and they are doing that already and it is commendable. The level of political education in Nigeria now, I daresay is higher than that of the United States of America. There is no part of Nigeria now that is not conscientizedenough to show a correlation between their current economic deprivation and the need to do something significant with respect to their future. Nigerians are not going to invest or entrust their future into the hands of those who are the rapacious elite threatening the social fabric and social concord we have in the country. So, I would rather say that the enthusiasm towards the Nigerian State and the need to change the country for the better lie more in the hands of Nigerians than in the hands of any leader.
Do you see Nigerians reflecting their current socio-economic reality in the way they will vote?
It is very likely that they will do so differently in the zones, but not significantly in all the zones. For example, in the South-East, they are most likely to reflect that, but they are not likely to reflect that in the South-West. The North has never reflected any reality of the economy of the country in respect of its political choices. The West as well as the North always votes on the basis of other factors. For example, the North always votes on the basis of political leadership and the direction that their leaders have always given unto them. So, solidarity determines voting pattern in the North rather than the reality of their economic deprivation. In the West, solidarity, principled politics and issues that have to do with local autonomy have been the determining factors in political choices, rather than issues of economic deprivation. In the South-East, the issue that will determine political choice is economic deprivation, and maybe the South-South will follow suit. But in the North-East, North-West, North-Central and the South-West, the election will be determined more by emotional attachment to who they are and who their leaders ask them to vote for. That is actually what is going to determine the result of the election.
There are security concerns being raised about the level of insecurity in the country threatening election in certain places, even INEC facilities are still coming under attacks…
For the sake of analysis, let’s take the South-East for example. There was insecurity in Anambra State when Professor Charles Soludo was elected governor of the state. Was there not? There was insecurity in the North-East when we had the 2019 elections. There has never been a time when insecurity prevents a significant portion of Nigeria form holding elections. At any rate, if elections do not hold in all the five states in the South-East, it cannot stop the remaining 31 states from holding elections. No law stops them. It is only when the president says there is significant breakdown of law and order in parts of the country and he feels that the outcome of the elections will be affected by insecurity that he can take step that the elections be postponed he will invoke the constitutional provision which permits him to suspend elections for the next six months. But in the current instance, there is no clear evidence to show that because there is insecurity in one part of the country, then there is going to be a cancellation of elections in all parts of the country. It will never happen. Nigeria is not in that kind of political quagmire. At any rate, don’t forget that the South-East is not a geographically large area. If you put all the five states in the South-East together and put them inside Kogi State, there will still be excess space left. So, it is a very small area that we are talking about. By proximity, the election in Anambra and Imo states can be done using the Benin or Asaba headquarters of INEC, if the destruction of INEC facilities is an issue in those South-East states. Elections can be conducted using proximous states across those area and Nigerians in the areas will come out to vote, especially now that irredentists and ethnic champions see some hope in one of the candidates.
Tinubu was in Abeokuta, Ogun State to campaign and he made some very strong statements regarding the situation in his party and the government he helped to bring about, accusing some folks of trying to sabotage him. He seems to have hinted about people within the government and the party trying to stop him from emerging victorious…
I was not in Abeokuta, but I have seen the video and read comments of people about his speech at the rally or campaign, if you like. There was nothing that he said that was outside of the legitimate. He spoke about the issue of currency, petrol and others are being manipulated in such a way as to cause social dissension. Is that not the truth? Were the security forces not trying to apprehend the CBN governor himself? He was forced to take, if you like, a medical vacation. In fact, he was forced to go to the court to enforce his fundamental rights to prevent the fifth columnists from sabotaging the monetary policy that he has taken. So, if Tinubu alludes to any of these, he is perfectly in order. At any rate, is anybody expecting that Tinubu will not feel the pulse of his own people? It will be self-defeatist if not a sheer lie for anyone to say that the economic reality of fuel scarcity and the instability in the monetary policy does no ill to Tinubu. I suspect that the South-West is the major base of Tinubu. So, he needs to connect with his own people, especially the ordinary people, to feel what they feel and tell them that he understands how they feel. I think the Abeokuta declaration was made in that light and nothing more than that. It was not an attempt to spite anybody that is handling the Federal Government of Nigeria now. But far more than that, even going historically, Tinubu has never used the pedestal or if you like, the record of the current Federal Government as the basis of his own campaign. He has been using his own record as governor of Lagos State between 1999 and 2007. Tinubu has never been in government since 2007. So, the only thing he can use is his own record of eight years as governor and the fact that Lagos has continued to be the number one state in every effort in all spheres of Nigeria’s economic and social development. As the fifth largest economy in Africa, Lagos is a success story, better than the economies of all the Eastern countries in Africa put together. Why will Tinubu nor boast of that and put that side by side the not so comfortable situation of his people? I think he spoke well and those statements were perfectly in order.
Some people are already saying Tinubu not using Buhari’s record to campaign is an admission that the APC government has failed…
Has the wife of the president herself not apologised on behalf of her husband in terms of non-performance? Can anybody be closer to the president personally than the wife? So, if a group of Nigerians belongs to a political party and they are so truthful to themselves and to the public as to admit that certain things have not been done well, should we then penalize and continue to pillory that kind of person? Even the president himself said he has done his best and that his best may not be good enough for us. He did not put it in that kind of language, but that was actually what he meant. Is anybody going to say all is well with the country? In those areas where he has done well, maybe in the area of infrastructure, roads, bridges and stabilizing issues that have to do with local production of food, particularly rice, in gingering local production of food and through the CBN interventions, he has scored a very good grade in these areas. But in the critical issue of the welfare of Nigerians, Section 14 sub section 2 paragraph b is very clear. It says the purpose of government shall be the security and welfare of the people. Can it be said in all honesty that this government has scored a first in those two areas? The answer is absolutely no. So, if we now have a leader of a political party indirectly, by subterfuge, making an apology for that, should we sanction him?
Nigerians are saying Tinubu should take responsibility for bringing Buhari, having led the arrangements that made Buhari president…
The truth is that Tinubu has never been in any government since 2007. So, what is it? Even some of his highly trusted lieutenants who were recommended to Buhari were rejected. In fact, some of them who had the opportunity of working in this government were removed after three or four years. An example is MrBabatunde Fowler, one of the best crack heads when it comes to revenue generation. When the government of Buhari was busy sidelining and isolating Tinubu, nobody spoke. How come they now want to award Tinubu negative marks for Buhari’s failure? At any rate and by extension, Buhari won election in 2015 and 2019, are Nigerians who voted for Buhari in those elections not supposed to be sharers in the blame? Did Tinubu alone vote for Buhari in those elections? In fact in 2019, the total electoral votes that Buhari garnered were more than those of 2015. It means Nigerians were satisfied with him. This is to tell you that Nigerians don’t vote essentially, particularly in the North-East, North-West, North-Central and South-West on the basis only of economic performance. They vote, particularly in the North, on emotional issues, things that are far removed from development, issues of whether the person is a Muslim or not a Christian, whether he is Hausa or Fulani, or whether it is the North’s turn to control the presidency after the South has done it for about 14 years. These are the issues that determine who the North will vote for. Each time Buhari comes into an election, he brings with him about 10 million votes. How many Nigerians can mobilize 10 million votes? So, you can’t approbate and reprobate at the same time. If you want Buhari and his votes, then you must take all the risks, liabilities, privileges attached thereto and connected therewith. Buhari is a behemoth, a huge factor when it comes to electioneering and vote acquisition in this country.
So, where are those complaining? Why can’t they do something significant in their respective zones to ensure that the party of the person they don’t like loses? You can’t say that you don’t like to eat pork, but you are using the oil from pork to fry egg. If you say someone has not done well, why do you keep voting for the person? Nigerians are not led by economic rationality in their voting at all. They are led more by emotional issues outside reason. Did you not notice how the people of Oyo State disgraced Bola Ige in 1983 in the way they voted? And what was the determining issue: “omowa n e je o se” [It is our son that we must elect as governor]. This was how the Ibadan factor came in and is still a dominant factor till today in Oyo politics. How many governors have we had since 1999 and how many of them are non-Ibadan? Only one, the late Adebayo Alao-Akala, and this was made possible through the instrumentality of an Ibadan iron man, the late LamidiAdedibu, through all legal and mostly illegal means. So, Ibadan alone can determine the destiny of Oyo State, regardless of the quality of anybody who comes from elsewhere. So, if Ibadan insists it wants to continue to produce the governor of the state, just like the Igala of Kogi State, they will continue to have their way because they are the commanding majority, while the others are permanent minority. If this can happen in a highly educated Oyo State, I dare anybody to say it can’t happen in other places in Nigeria where illiteracy rate is about 80 per cent in virtually all the 19 states in the North with his poverty rate also.
Whoever becomes the president is going to be having issues to deal with and not much is being expected because of the amount of debt owed, the level of division and so on…
The next president will have a lot in his hands and his plate will be full. Part of the things that will make him to have sleepless nights will be: the budgetary implementation profile of Nigeria and by this we are talking about the capital budget and not the recurrent budget. Salaries will always be paid even if the government does not have money. It can ask the CBN to print money and get out of the trouble. The Federal Government can’t run short of money since it has the CBN. It is only states that can run short because they don’t have any CBN. The best performance ratio since 2015 has always been 30 per cent. This tells you why the country is not growing. It is the capital budget that grows the economy and creates wealth. It is talking about roads, bridges, schools, hospitals and so on. So, whoever wins the election will have the problem of balancing capital budget with recurrent budget.
The second thing is that the person is going to have a significant problem managing Nigeria’s indebtedness. Currently, more than 80 per cent of Nigeria’s total current revenue is spent on servicing debts. I did not say paying debts. Imagine a person who earns N100 in a day and he spends more than N80 paying debtors. Will the person be able to have enough money to survive? That is the situation of Nigeria now. Our debt is unsustainable.
The third and the final thing is the issue that has to do with healing the country. The government has significantly made Nigerians to detest and hate themselves to the extent that the issues that have to do with balancing the multiplicity and the plurality of Nigeria has become a major challenge now. So, how to rebuild the country and its ethnic composition will be the greatest challenge for the next president. Healing the country and calling back those who are agitating to break away the country, assuaging their fears, almost practically begging them to let go their anger and reconciling Nigerians back to themselves through significant transfer of power and appointment to them and balancing the equation in terms of nepotistically managed governmental institutions in the country will be the greatest nation-building challenge to the next president.
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