WITH governors of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ruling out the possibility of the leading opposition party being part of the Coalition of Political Leaders, the promoters have more hurdles to overcome, writes KUNLE ODEREMI.
RISING from a meeting held in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital, last week, governors elected on the platform of the leading opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) distanced the party from the ongoing moves by the presidential candidate of the party in the last general election, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar from the move. As a key promoter of the movement, the former vice president had led a delegation, which comprised the immediate past governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, Senator Aminu Tambuwal, among others, of the movement to visit former President Muhammadu Buhari in a subtle way to give credibility to the coalition.
On February 11, this year, Atiku was the head of a similar team that visited former President Olusegun Obasanjo, at his hilltop residence in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, ostensibly to galvanise popular support for the emerging coalition to challenge the All Progressive Congress (APC) in the next general election. Other members of the delegation included a former governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal, former Governor of Cross River State, Senator Liyel Imoke, as well as a number of other stalwarts.
On March 20, Atiku, has announced the formation of a Coalition of Opposition Political Parties. He confirmed the birth of the movement while responding to a question on behalf of the opposition leaders at a press conference held at the Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja.
After those visits and the unveiling of the coalition and other faces behind it, the promoters stepped up efforts at building a consensus and strengthening public perception. This was in spite of the cynism from the ruling APC, which believes the coming together of those political forces is of no consequence to the chances of the APC retaining power in 2027. According to the chieftains of the party, the opposition figures are only seeking relevance after losing out in the field in the last general election in the country. Some observers also noted that the efforts of the promoters of the coalition suffered a setback when the PDP governors dissociated the party from the coalition. The governors stated: “Noting the nationwide speculations about possible merger of political parties, groups and/or associations, the Forum resolved that the PDP will not join any coalition or merger. However, the PDP as a major opposition party welcomes any party, persons or groups that are willing to join it with a view to wresting power and enthroning good leadership in 2027.”
The resolution of the governors drew flak from the movement. Speaking on behalf of the coalition, a former national officer of APC, Mallam Salihu Lukman, said the movement has become imperative in order to maintain and foster healthy political competition, as well as to rescue democracy from imminent collapse. He said; ”The governors know that the virus that afflicts the PDP has no cure. They are only grandstanding. They know that Nigerians cannot accept this PDP as the alternative because it is clear to all discerning Nigerians that the ruling party has hijacked its soul.”
With the PDP governors declaration that they and other party faithful should be counted out of the coalition, the movement is believed faced with another hurdle to scale. Sources within the coalition said the defection of some political big wigs to the Social Democratic party (SDP) is a mere decoy of the alternative platform for coalition.
Meanwhile, there is still uncertainty within the coaltion over the platform to be deployed to prosecute the elections in 2027. The leaders are said to be riveting their energies on galvanising support for the movement for now and not the fringe party the Social Democratic Party (SDP), contrary to impression created by El-Rufai that other chieftains from other parties were on the verge of joining him when he defected from the APC to the SDP. One of the sources said: “The issue over presidential hopefuls still revolves around Atiku, Obi and Jonathan. Maybe Osinbajo is the dark horse. But I can tell you if not Jonathan, there is an 80% chance it is Osinbajo. Those are the two the northerners, particularly northwestern ones are considering. “Senator Musa Kwankwaso is clear about the fact that he feels Obi is his junior and deputising him is out of the question. He admitted the other two having been president and vice are choices he can work with. It is the same thing with El-Rufai and another former minister, Chukwuemeka Nwajuiba and co also think Jonathan and Osinbajo are the front runners.”
On the assumption that the South-East and the South-South will not be guaranteed with Osinbajo as candidate, the source said: “It will depend on Obi’s role. However, we are not too worried about the South-South; we will take it against Asiwaju Bola Tinubu with Jonathan, suspended Governor Simi Fubara of rivers State, Governor Douye Diri of Bayelsa State and the general sentiment, except if Obi runs, which will eat into our votes. So, the South-East is the problem. When told that there is the possibility of Obi contesting again given Obasanjo’s disposition, another source stated: “That’s why they are trying to work on former President Obasanjo; they are really working on him. Atiku is being worked on also. There was a meeting of the leaders held in Abuja penultimate Sunday in Abuja. A former Minister of Interior, Mr Rauf Aregbesola couldn’t attend because of our meeting but he should have been briefed. So, the coalition leaders are working assiduously to succeed.”
Also, the promoters of the coalition are reportedly considering direct primaries to pick what some of the leaders described as a most suitable presidential candidate for the 2027 election. This is even as the leaders are yet to resolve the issue of the platform to be deployed in fielding candidates for the general election, due to the fear that the process could be compromised and frustrated by agents of the ruling APC and government agencies, and to guide against infiltration by Fifth Columnists.
Sources close to the coalition said the direct primary option tops the list of other models being tinkered with by the leaders to choose a candidate that “possesses necessary pedigree to face President Tinubu of the APC at the polls. Direct primary entails the participation of all party members in the selection of party candidates while indirect primary involves use of delegates, often party leaders at local levels, political appointees, as well as elected officials, to elect party candidates. A source disclosed that the option is to produce a consensus presidential candidate that can reduce the reach of President Tinubu as the standard-bearer of the APC in the next general election. The belief among some major stakeholders in the coalition, the sources claimed, is that the direct primary could go a long way in averting the backlash often associated with choice of candidates, citing the state of affairs in PDP since 2023. They recalled that the option mitigated the level of the protest and distrust that trailed the emergence of the then Major General Buhari (retd) at the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential primary in 2018. On the issue of power rotation, the preponderance of the leaders of the coalition reportedly argue that a southern candidate would enable the group leverage on the votes in the South once the process of his emergence is seamless and transparent for the zones in the North to buy-in. Part of the permutations of the coalition is also said to be to produce a candidate that has the brightest chance of securing a majority of votes in the North that could complement votes from the South-South and South-East in particular. According to them, the proposal will allow for the members of the coalition to harness the comparative advantage of areas where the APC seemed not to have dominance since it was formed in 2013 despite consolidating its hold on most stares in the South-West, the home base of President Tinubu. However, the sources hinted that the names of former President Goodluck Jonathan and former vice president top the list of those that could be worked on to run for the presidency based on a number of grounds. One of the grounds for the option is that one of them is qualified for a single term of four years based on the letter of the constitution, with the belief that this would allow for power to rotate to the North in 2031.
The quest by the coalition to see the APC out of Aso Rock is also said to have led to some former top Federal Government functionaries that antagonised the same faith ticket of the APC in 2023 to have a volte face, with a vow to remain resolute and steadfast in the agenda of the current alliance. The sources also said the place of the presidential candidate of the Labour party (LP), Mr Peter Obi in the emerging scenario is also being considered by the promoters of the coalition as he is perceived as capable of giving the alliance the block votes of the South-East. But the issue of power rotation between the North and the South is said to remain hard not to be cracked for the coalition, coupled with how to make former President Obasanjo, the major backer of Mr Peter Obi, buy into the agenda of the coalition. At the moment, the political configuration in the South-East is that while the APC has two governors, PDP, APGA and the LP have one each.
A top notch of the APC, who spoke on the efforts by the opposition politicians to form the coalition said it was unequivocal declaration by them that their individual parties had failed. He said: “If the so-called PDP chieftains agree to form a coalition, it is an admission that their party has failed. I think that they have about 12 governors and the other people pushing coalition. Do some of the individuals and their parties have a governor? No, even the NNPP that has a governor is not keen on joining the coalition. So, those people talking about coalition are desperately seeking refuge. They are just roaming around. Mallam Nasir el-Rufai does not have a base and Atiku is not in charge of PDP, his party is disarray. Obi does not have control over his party (Labour Party). The APC stalwart said those behind the coalition were not clear about what they actually want as far as the current exercise is concerned. “Besides, there are some conceptual problems in what they are talking about: is it a merger or an alliance? What happens to other levels of election if it is not a merger? For instance, will all those parties not field candidates for other levels of elections? So it is just a slogan of confusion,” the source stated.
The Chairman of the Senate Committee on Media and Public Affairs, Senator Yemi Adaramodu also cast doubts on moves by those behind the coalition to impact on the APC in the 2027 general election. He said the APC was not perturbed about the movement. “Our party APC is not worried. What do you expect politicians to do? They are living to play politics. So, if they are playing politics, do you want them to be clapping for APC? No!”
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