There seems to be a growing momentum against the 2023 presidential election being a two-horse race. WALE AKINSELURE, examines the feasibility of a ‘Third Force’ giving the major parties: the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) a keen contest.
Just before the 2019 general election, the quest by some Nigerians for a ‘Third Force’ crumbled like a pack of cards. This happened after several personalities proclaimed the setting up of movements that were out to upstage the two major parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). More Nigerians, indeed, embraced the imperativeness of a third force owing to the glaring failures of both the APC and PDP administrations. Whether the 16 years PDP-led government or the four years APC-led government, as of year 2019, Nigerians continued to bewail the failure of government to live up to its primary constitutional duty: security and welfare of the people and wanted an alternative. Apart from the success story of the APC in 2013, most of the attempts to form either a third force or mega party have failed to materialise. Among other reasons, the futility usually stemmed from a failure of the various movements to coalesce into a big, strong force to drive the people.
Around the world, a third force attaining power is a big challenge. In most countries, there are usually two dominant parties, with a third force putting up a dark horse display once in a blue moon. In Ghana, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) are the dominant parties. In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) is fully in control with the Democratic Alliance a very distant second. The Conservatives and Labour regularly exchange the baton in the United Kingdom. The Democrats and the Republicans own the United States politics. In Nigeria, the PDP and APC have been dominant in the fourth republic with the third force movement usually showing up just few months before the conduct of general election.
Nigerians have revived the need for a third force ahead of the 2023 general election. This time, the quest of an alternative reverberates across the nation due to woes that have befallen the country. In fact, the stand of many is that it is imperative to have a ‘third force because of the precarious state of the nation. Pressure groups like the Coalition for Nigeria Movement (CNM), the Nigeria Intervention Movement (NIM), the Alliance for the Defense of Democracy (ADD), the Rescue Nigeria Movement (RNM) and the National Consultative Front (NCFront) have at various times announced their intentions to create a mega party that could be regarded as a third force within the political scene. Among other movements, the NCFront unveiled in 2020 offered a semblance of seriousness going by the prominent Nigerians that promoted the movement. Leaders of the movement included renowned economist, Professor Pat Utomi; a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Ghali Na’abba; a prominent lawyer, Olisa Agbakoba; human rights lawyer, Femi Falana; former minister, Dr Oby Ezekwesili; Chairman of the National Conscience Party (NCP), Dr Tanko Yinusa; and former Cross River State Governor Donald Duke. The NCFront later announced the setting up of a shadow government to provide alternative interventions and solutions to problems of national governance in the various sectors of the economy. There was also The National Movement (TNM) spearheaded by former Kano governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso. Prominent politicians that showed support for the movement were former Minister of Sports, Solomon Dalung; former Kogi governor, Idris Wada; Senator Suleiman Hunkuyi; Alhaji Buba Galadima; Professor Rufai Alkali; Chief Solomon Edoda among others. The movements have come up with various agenda. The Rescue Nigeria Project has an agenda to salvage the country fix what it called the mess. The National Consultative Front styled itself a citizens-led mass political movement that will meet with other groups to save Nigeria and from a strong third force movement as a political bloc. With the 2023 election drawing near, questions continued to be asked about whether the several movements will fizzle out as usual during any election cycle, come together to form a political party, adopt an existing political party or simply remain a movement.
In February, Utomi had promised what was called a mega alliance with the likes of Professor Attahiru Jega, Usman Bugaje, Kingsley Moghalu to berth a political movement to be described as third force. As part of forming the third force, Utomi said meetings had been held with the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), a number of parties, labour movements, social movements and networks. Asked then whether the Third Force will materialize, Utomi said: “Assuming that the Third Force is not crystallising, will Nigerians choose death by going back to those two groups? PDP, APC are one party, anyway. Can Nigerians themselves rally around and create something for themselves assuming what we are presenting does not happen? But, in truth, it is happening and this is structure we promised, and it is in place already. The structure is a combination of fusion and alliance. How long does election take in the United Kingdom, from when it is announced till when the polling takes place? It is usually not up to a month. When you are properly organised, you know what you are going after. Two weeks is enough to execute a campaign. It is joblessness that makes us spend one year running around.”
At every electoral cycle, questions continue to raised about the extent to which the third force has been ingrained in the mind of Nigerians. Aside from question about the extent to which the movement has penetrated villages and towns, there is also the question of whether it is bringing to the table something sufficiently fresh, believable and worth the attention and membership of a thoroughly disappointed Nigerian electorate. There are also issues whether the third force is not just another movement led by ruling class elements or politicians frustrated out of the two major parties, defectors from existing main parties seeking refuge somewhere.
Last week, convener of the Big Tent of the Third Force and Chairman of the NCFront, Utomi declared that the third force had adopted the Labour party and its presidential candidate, Mr Peter Obi as arrow head of a collegial leadership initiative. He boasted that the third force had a much stronger and deeper than APC and PDP. The third force, according to Utomi, comprised the 36 political commissions of both the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC), structures of the congress of Nigerian Professionals and their My Great Nigeria Project, the Network of the concerned professionals, collaborating political parties like ADC, PRP, SDP, faith based organizations in both Christian and moslem traditions. Utomi added that the third force’s conviction has been deepened by the passion with which young and old people are motivated to buy into the reform preached by Mr Peter Obi.
A former Chairman, Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU), Dr Izielen Agbon also questions the identity and agenda of the third force as a political party. Agbon questioned: “The Labour party has been promoted as a third force. What are the specific concrete demands of the Labour Party as a third force? It is not clear if the NLC workers’ charter of demands has been adopted by the Labour Party as the basis of its existence. While the NLC and TUC set up the LP as a tool for electoral struggles by workers, youths, farmers and women, Nigerian politicians see it as just an alternative bourgeois electoral party. The Labour Party has welcomed these neo-liberal anti-worker forces into its leadership. Thus, the present amorphous nature of the Labour Party is an obstacle to its ability to be a tactical, ideological political united front of oppressed Nigerian masses fighting to win material benefits and guarantee the future of their children.”
Meanwhile, analysts are weighing the chances of a third force against the APC and PDP. While some have ruled out the chances of a third force winning the 2023 presidential election, there are those who say an upset is possible. A public affairs analyst, Waziri Adio argued that an upset in the next election is near-impossible. He opined that time is running out for the construction of a formidable nationwide vote-winning structure by the third-force candidates; the enormous war chest needed for a presidential run; and the reluctance of the typical voter to bet on candidates with slim chances.
However, an elder statesman and foundation member of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Alhaji Tanko Yakasai argued that the conveners of the various third force groups are not adopting the type of strategy that led to the formation of the defunct National Party of Nigeria (NPN) during the Second Republic. Yakasai said: “Before we formed the NPN, the then national movement had branches in all the parts of the country, the east, the west and the north. So, by the time the military lifted the ban on political activities, we were ready. We had our constitution, manifesto and other things in place. It did not take us a week. What we did was to change the word ‘movement’ to ‘party’ and put ‘Nigeria,’ such that instead of the national movement, we had the National Party of Nigeria. In a matter of one week, we had our posters all over the place. They need to do something like this, but the most important thing is that they should give every Nigerian a sense of belonging in the party and to do that, they must involve them right from the word go.”
Generally, reservations abound regarding what the third force can achieve in the 2023 elections. A former deputy governorship candidate of the Labour Party, in Oyo State, Professor Abideen Olaiya simply posited that the third force is not ripe for the 2023 election. “What politicians are doing is coalition or realignments not third force. Third force can only win election when citizens are ready for ballot revolution,” Olaiya said. A former NLC chairman in Oyo State, Mr Waheed Olojede simply declared the chance of the third force putting up any tangible challenge against the PDP and APC as slim.
A lecturer in the Department of Political Science, University of Ibadan, Dr Stephen Lafenwa, argued that even if all other parties come together to form the third force, the 2023 race will still be between the major parties: APC and PDP. Though he noted that the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and the Labour party showed little prospects, Lafenwa said the bane of effective third force was: lack of adequate preparation, absence of dependable structures, funding problem. “No virile third force can be put in place after the party primaries of all major parties. Even if all other parties besides APC and PDP come together to form the third force, the race is between the two major parties. NNPP and Labour coalition seems to show little prospects but clash of personal interest of their leaders would never allow the coalition to come to the fore. Nigeria’s system does not allow for third force; religious and ethnic sentiment are also another problem. Nigerians should put more pressure on the government to restructure the system in such a way that political power returns to the people.”
On the contrary, Programme Director at Media Rights Agenda, Lagos, Ayode Longe argued that the Labour party and its presidential candidate, Mr Peter Obi, was a virile third force that can upstage the PDP and APC in the 2023 elections whose allegiance is to the ruling class. He said the bane of a virile third force is ignorance, poverty, political violence, weak institutions and being at the mercy of law enforcement agents. Longe said: “The third force can actually upstage APC and PDP. Remember, PDP said it will rule for 60 years before handing over but it ruled for 16 years because people became disenchanted with the rule of PDP. I can tell you that people have also become disenchanted with the APC today because life today under APC’s General Muhammadu Buhari has become short and brutish with the daily incidents of killings, violent armed robbery, kidnapping for ransom, ritual killings and the unending Boko Haram insurgency. But for Labour Party and Obi, and in fact the masses of Nigerians to achieve the feat of upstaging PDP and APC, there has to be oneness of purpose, they have to work together and breakdown the weapon of ethnicity and religion that the political class is trying to use to divide Nigerians.”
Founder and Spiritual Head, Shafaudeen in Islam Worldwide, Professor Sabit Olagoke argued that though a third force is desirable, it will be very difficult to manage. He said what had become imperative is for Nigerians to seek God’s guidance to vote right. Olagoke said: “Most of these splinter groups or outside the box of APC and PDP may not be able to stand the test of time if given the chance to come up due to the hurdles of election. Learning from the antecedent of how the former President Obasanjo gathered forces of the third column for the 2019 elections, we without faith called him names and he himself was disappointed in very many who he believed will be able to tackle the might of the APC and PDP unashamedly show their true colours of already polarized Nigerians hence, his Coalition formation naturally disintegrated without the strength to tackle the might of the PDP and APC. What is important now for Nigerians is to seek divine guidance for God to touch them when they are exercising their franchise.”
A lecturer at William V.S. Tubman University, Liberia, Dr Barthlomew Akpah said if Nigerians can jettison biases of ethnic and religious leanings, presidential candidate of the Labour party, Peter Obi can spring a surprise and win the next election. Akpah averred: “In politics, surprises spring. Although, a reality check presents the Labour Party with a glimmer of hope on creating upset and upstaging PDP and APC. That said, I see the Labour Party especially for the presidential election making a huge impact in the entire southern axis of the country. Peter Obi’s movement can also gain sizable votes from the Middle-Belt. The NNPP may as well pull a string in the North Central. Indeed, the third force as represented by the Labour Party poses some headaches to the party bigwigs in both APC and PDP.”
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