KUNLE ODEREMI interrogates the current interplay of forces in the All Progressives Congress (APC) over the contest for its presidential ticket.
In January, President Muhammadu Buhari declared that he has an anointed candidate for the All Progressives Congress (APC) for next year’s general election, but held back on disclosing the particular candidate. His purpose for holding back the identity of the lucky aspirant was a tactical reason bordering on security. But the wait for him to unveil his endorsed candidate cannot go beyond June.
To be exact, June 3, is the deadline given by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for parties to resolve all matters relating to primaries. Parties that fail to comply with the guidelines are not expected to submit the name of their candidates to the commission. In effect, the parties are required to stick to the 61 days’ timeline for candidates to emerge in compliance with section 84 of the new Electoral Act. Under the broad timetable and schedule of activities, the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them begin from April 4 to June 3, 2022, while the submission of nomination forms to INEC, though online, will hold between June 10 and June 17.
The gritty battle for the APC presidential ticket has taken a fever pitch, with the entry of vice president, Professor Yemi Osinbajo and the Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi. Thus far, the number of aspirants has increased to 15, with the contestants mostly from the South-West and the South-East. But, suffice to say that President Buhari still holds the ace as the de facto leader of the ruling party in the choice of a possible candiadte. He ranks first among other gladiators that would decide the ticket of the party. With the commanding position that he displayed in the emergence of a former governor of Nasarawa State, Senator Abdullahi Adamu as the national chairman of the APC, the president constitutes the alter ego in the battle for the presidential ticket of the party. It was similar to the role he played in the choice of the leadership of the National Assembly and his body language has been a critical factor on matters affecting the APC. The deference to him by the influential bloc, the Progressive Governors’ Forum has equally given him undue advantage, with some members of a clique acting as foot soldiers.
Governor Ben Ayade, who defected from the PDP to the APC is confident the president will show the way on the issue of who gets the ticket of the party. He said: “I believe the President will do the right thing for the interest of this nation. As far as I know, Buhari, to a large extent, would be the one to decide for the party (APC), the person that will succeed him.” The governor added that those had indicated their interest in the ticket from the South were only exercising their rights under the constitution.
There is, however, another phase in the raging battle for the ticket. It is about who becomes running mate to whoever emerges as the standard-bearer of the APC. This has split the rank of the governors. The issue formed part of the problems that marked the tenure of the hitherto interim national leadership of the party, with the main actors involved in the subtle political fight coming from the North since the party has zoned its presidential ticket to the South. The Yobe State governor, Mai Mala Buni, was appointed as interim national chairman in June 2020, following the removal of Adams Oshiomhole.
There are several potent forces in the ongoing chess game among which are Governor Abubakar Bagudu of Kebbi State. As a close confidant of the president, the incumbent national chairman of the APC, Senator Abdullahi Adamu is another major factor in the battle for the APC ticket.
In the meantime, some aspirants are said to have initiated moves to leave the party in case of a possible loss in the ongoing chess game. One of the former governors from the south-east is said to be perfecting plans to return to the PDP but is facing stiff resistance and opposition from some party bigwigs, including senators and his state governor. There are also speculations about some APC chieftains shifting their camps to the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
Mutual suspicion in Lagos
The current scenario depicts a relationship gone sour between the leader of the APC, Chief Bola Tinubu and the vice-president, Professor Yemi Osinbajo. It is recalled that their symbiotic relationship predates the current political dispensation. Osinbajo was among the legal luminaries and professionals that prepared grounds for the takeoff of civil dispensation in Lagos after the 1999 general election. From being the Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice, he played a Yeoman’s role in legal reforms and administration that complemented the efforts of other members of the Tinubu cabinet in value addition to governance. The final decision of the vice president to join the fray over the presidential ticket has seemingly exacerbated the relationship between the two camps. Both camps displayed an unusual political maturity at the Eagle Square Abuja during the convention of the APC. Their members had tried to outpace each other through public display of loyalty to their principals with scintillating vibes and lyrics to market them.
Ogun: Whose base?
The political graph in Ogun over the ticket of the APC for the presidential race might be too early to plot. There are speculations that one or two other APC chieftains might declare interest in the ticket after Osinbajo threw in his hat in the ring. One of them is said to be a close political associate of President Buhari, while the other APC leader is a defector from the PDP. Could one of them become the anointed candidate of the president? Osinbajo hails from Ogun State. Tinubu is believed to have some close political allies in the Gateway State.
Umahi vs PDP
After several denials, Governor Dave Umahi eventually defected to the APC. He had also said his action was not predicated on any plan to run for the presidency. His decision to ditch the PDP platform that brought him into the Government House Abakaliki has fueled the protracted cold war and distrust between him and his former co-travellers in the PDP. his hold on the political lever of the state is threatened by a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Senator Anyim Pius Anyim who seeking the ticket of the PDP for the 2023 general election. Umahi also faces some form of opposition from a group of aPC leaders in the state in a seeming supremacy battle.
Kogi: Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State is the lone ranger from the North in the race for APC ticket. He is optimistic about getting the ticket based on what he perceived as his pedigree, service and integrity. H also believes that the youth and woman form part of his support base. He said the APC needs a vibrant, smart and young candidate for the election, in apparent reference to the agitation for zoning. “By the grace of God, after my emergence as the presidential candidate, every other zoning arrangement will sort itself out naturally, just like what you saw at the Eagle Square,” he said.
Ekiti
Speculations about the governor of Ekiti State, Dr Kayode Fayemi contesting for the presidency has not ebbed in spite of his remaining taciturn on the issue. Posters on his speculated ambition were common place in parts of the country and found in strategic locations of Abuja before and during the APC convention.
Just as the APC did on its convention to elect national officers, the party may take that familiar path in deciding its candidates for the elections to avert running fowl of the provisions of the electoral act. And the chairman of the Progressives Governors Forum (PGF), and Kebbi State governor, Atiku Bagudu, has indicated that the party might decide its presidential candidate by consensus. “We always encourage our party to go for the best. Don’t forget that in the 2015 presidential election primary, President Buhari contested against several others and it was a beautiful contest. There is nothing wrong. Members of the party always want to see consensus if it is possible but we are a democratic party.”
For the governor of Kaduna State, Dr Nasir El-Rufai, the APC will overcome its challenges and triumph in the 2023 elections as the party has done well though it could have done better. He said: “I believe that in 2023, the APC is going to win the presidential election as well as the majority of the governorship elections.”
Akpabio versus Emmanuel
With the Minister of the Niger Delta Affairs, Godswill Akpabio set to flaunt his uncommon agenda of transformation, a major contest between a godfather and a godson is in the works. He facilitated the choice of Governor Udom Emmanuel as his successor, who has upped his game by seeking the presidential ticket of APC for 2023. With the split in Akwa Ibiom PDP, the bid to succeed Buhari as president by Akpabio faces uncertainty as the duo renew an old battle for supremacy in the political turf.
Ngige in Anambra
The Minister of Labour and former governor of Anambra State, Dr Chris Ngige has lent credence to reports of his intention to seek the APC ticket. His party has battled vainly to establish strong presence in the major electoral battle in the state. Conversely, another former governor of the state, Mr Peter Obi is seeking the ticket of PDP, with a popular opinion of having bequeathed an enviable legacy that should recommend him for the highest office in the land.
Rivers: Friends now foes
The battle is between two political allies: Governor Nyesom Wike and his erstwhile benefactor, Mr Rotimi Amaechi, the current minister of transportation, who have since been separated by political intrigues, deep-seated anger and rivalry. The relationship that began on a symbiotic level and assumed mentor/mentee form, has degenerated to serious bad blood. Incidentally, both of them now have their eyes on the ball: presidency but under different platform. While one will be depending so much on power of incumbency to make his opponent’s camp hostile and volatile, the other will be relying heavily on the centre to help because it is an apparent payback time.
Okorocha vs Uzodimma
For Rochas Okorocha, he has a Herculean task in maintaining a grip on his hitherto political fortress called Imo. He and his successor, Governor Hope Uzodimma are not on the same since the change of guard in Government House. Thus, his bid for the presidential ticket of the APC is fraught with challenges of getting a favourable disposition of the governor, having a base at home to confer a relative power of negotiation for compromise in the talks for the ticket of the party.
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“Absolutely, When we came with the Buhari government in 2015 I became the minister. We were committed to a roadmap to establish a National Carrier, to concession the airports, to set up a leasing company, to establish cargo facilities and we have been doing that.”
On why the Buhari government wanted a national carrier, the minister responded: “Nigeria is situated at the centre of Africa, equidistant from all locations in Africa. 30.4 million square kilometres miles, 1.5 billion people, very green land. If Central and Eastern Africa is the belt of the continent, then Nigeria is the buckle. 200 million people and rising middle class, propensity to fly is high. Nigeria is a candidate for National Carrier.”
Sirika who insisted that the coming national carrier will be private sector driven added; “Private. Yes. 5 per cent government and no government stepping right in that company, no government control, no membership of government on board. Totally private and committed.
“Whatever we say we will do as a government since 2015, it has happened. that is why Tim Clark of Emirates, Qatar Airways and all of them are looking to go into Nigeria in multiple frequencies and multiple landing points because Nigeria is the right place for the airline business.
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