THE race for the governorship ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is narrowing down to three aspirants namely Chief Adebayo Adelabu,Senator Teslim Folarin and Professor Adeolu Akande.
Investigations across the state indicate that the winner of the race may be determined by factors that are not entirely limited to the party or the state. If the present rating however persists, Chief Adebayo Adelabu or Professor Akande is sure to fly the ticket of the party in 2023.
Adebayo Adelabu
Adelabu was the candidate of the APC in the 2023 gubernatorial election when he polled over 300, 000 votes to come second after Engineer Seyi Makinde. Adelabu has told anyone who cares to listen that the votes he polled in 2019 are safe in his kitty and he only needs additional few thousands to be governor in 2023. Many of his party members, however, think otherwise. They indeed blame him for the loss of the party in 2019.
Adelabu had resigned as Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria to emerge the candidate of the APC within months. He rode on the back of his highly popular grandfather, Adegoke Adelabu and the endorsement of Senator Bola Tinubu to become the party’s standard-bearer. Tinubu was reported to have prevailed on then Governor Abiola Ajimobi to endorse Adelabu instead of Joseph Tegbe whom he had earlier supported. Tegbe’s candidacy had been bedeviled by his controversial indigene-ship of Ibadan. Political opponents say he is an Itsekiri from Delta State. Although he has since become a Mogaji in Ibadan, many people conversant with the politics of the Ibadan Mogaji chieftaincy system insist that he is yet to convince doubting Thomas’s of his place of origin.
Adelabu’s failure at the poll has, however, been blamed on what they describe as his arrogance. After his emergence as the candidate out of over 10 aspirants, many people had expected Adelabu to extend the olive branch to other aspirants. He did not. He himself had admitted at many meetings that if he had won the election in 2019, he would have remained a stranger to party members and they would not have enjoyed him. Although he claimed to have learnt his lesson, members of the APC are still in doubt of this.
Adelabu’s chances in 2023 are tied to that of Tinubu who is also running for the presidency. The body language of those who hold sway in Abuja does not look encouraging for Tinubu’s ambition. It is reckoned that Tinubu’s plight might extend to Adelabu who does not have any political structure he can fall back on in case Tinubu is helpless.
At a meeting he had with a group of parliamentarians in the state recently, Adelabu revealed that if he failed to win the APC ticket, he would run on any other party’s ticket. This may be an indication that if Tinubu does not win the presidential ticket as is feared by many of his supporters, he would port to another party with the likes of Adelabu whose entire political hope lies on him. Adelabu porting out of APC may not help the party, but definitely cannot take Adelabu to Government House, Agodi. Adelabu nevertheless remains an aspirant with a deep pocket and if Tinubu is able to win in Abuja, Adelabu will be a beneficiary. Otherwise, his chances will dwindle.
Senator Teslim Folarin
Folarin hails from Ona Ara Local Government and is a third time Senator. His sojourn as Senate Leader between 2007 and 2011 is supposed to have made him tower above other contestants for the party’s ticket, but his lack of little or nothing to show for his 10 years in the Senate remains a major setback for his politics.
His positives, however, include the tutelage he received from Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu under whose roof he began his politics. However, this is also his albatross as the members of the APC who view themselves as progressives do not see Folarin as one of them. One of them put it this way:”Even party leaders in Abuja tell us whether we want to turn Oyo State into a PDP state. Members of Folarin’s political family are people like Alhaja Bose Adedibu, Ambassador Arapaja and Auxillary. These are the people controlling the government with Seyi Makinde. If we present Folarin as candidate, what option are we giving progressives? It means we want to kill the legacies of our leaders like Bola Ige, Lam Adesina and Abiola Ajimobi.”
One of attractions of supporters to Folarin is that he is well connected in Abuja because of his long stay in power at the federal level. He had been a Senator three times including a term as Senate Leader. Cumulatively, he has spent 10 years in the Senate. However, his opponents claim that his connection is in PDP and not APC.”Tell me one thing he has been able to influence in this government? asked one of the leaders in Ona Ara Local Government. “He told us to submit a list for the coordinators of Special Works. None of the names came out. He again told us that his nominees were the ones coming to register as party members. None of his nominees came out of the list. He has not been able to influence one single appointment in this government. His influence is in PDP, not in APC,” he said.
A major plus for Folarin is his connection with the Ibadan chieftaincy system since Adedibu’s days. He has climbed the stairs of the Ibadan chieftaincy hierarchy and is said to be close to many of the influential chiefs. This will certainly help him in the race.
Folarin is aligned with former Governor Adebayo Alao Akala and the talk in the APC is that they have shared all available offices among themselves. Akala’s son, Olamiju is slated to be the Deputy Governor. Lowo Obisesan, Ajimobi’s Commissioner for Environment famous for demolition of people’s houses, is slated to become the Secretary to the State Government while Mogaji Akogun, another of Akala’s boys, is listed to be the Chief of Staff.” They have chosen their three senators and 14 representatives,” said a member of the Oyo State House of Assembly whose seat has already been given out by the Folarin/Akala group. This has infuriated many party members, especially original members of the APC who see the Folarin-Akala alignment as a plot to hijack their party.
Akala nevertheless remains a major force in the politics of Oyo State and his support is a major booster for Folarin. However, many politicians across the state contend that ultimately, Akala will only support the candidate that he is sure will win. “I have been around for long and I was with Tiger since PDP days through Labour, ADP and now APC. He will support the candidate that will win. All this claim that he supports Folarin is just a make-belief. Quote me.”
Prof Adeolu Akande
Akande is the chairman of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), one of the biggest commissions of the Federal Government. He is from Otu in the Oke Ogun area of the state. He served as Chief of Staff to the late Governor Abiola Ajimobi in the first two years of the administration. His entrance into the race is regarded as refreshing and his focus on policy issues in his political activities has marked him as different in the pack.
He is a Professor of Political Science and lawyer, a factor that has made him very appealing to the elite of the state. He is also widely commended for the way he carried himself as Chief of Staff to Governor Ajimobi. The position and his career as a journalist including his stint as an editor in the Nigerian Tribune gave him extensive contacts with traditional rulers and political leaders across Oyo State.
Akande had served as member of four presidential campaigns and worked as special assistant in the presidency. Both positions made him arguably one of the most connected politicians in Oyo State at the federal level. He is a friend with most of the governors in the South West. He has used the contacts extensively to get political appointments and employments for people across the state. He is credited with getting 22 board appointments for indigenes of the state in the current government apart from ambassadorial and life-changing career appointments.
He recently secured a N500 million ICT Park for Ibadan in addition to a campus wide internet service for Oke Ogun Polytechnic and a Campus Knowledge Centre for Emmanuel Alayande College of Education, a hi-tech ambulance for UCH and endowment of a professorial chair in Communications by the NCC at the University of Ibadan. His Adeolu Akande Foundation is also well known for providing financial support to youths and traders in addition to providing free health outreach for thousands of people.
Akande is popular within the rank of progressives being a member of the Unity Forum and is also actively involved in the initiative to get the Unity Forum to come back as one with the Ajimobi Legacy Forum.
Many politicians, however, believe he does not have the funds required for the governorship race. A notable journalist familiar with the politics of Oyo State, however, countered this. “I can mention two of his sponsors who can single-handedly finance the campaign. He certainly does not have the money, but he has more than enough people to provide more money than he needs for the campaign,” the senior journalist noted.
Akande hails from Otu in Itesiwaju Local Government which many of his opponents contend does not have huge votes that a governorship candidate requires. Oke Ogun zone from where he is from controls about 25 per cent of votes and his supporters argue that with a united APC and a general appeal that Akande possesses, he will surmount the challenge. They point at the fact that his Oyo North Senatorial zone recorded highest number of party members in the recent APC registration.
Those who think otherwise insist that only an Ibadan candidate can defeat Seyi Makinde because 54 per cent of the votes in Oyo State are locked up in Ibadan. “Where the candidate comes from is not the issue. We have had a candidate of a major party who hailed from Ibadan, but scored a paltry 65,000 votes. A candidate with mass appeal will override such argument,” argued one of Akande’s supporters.
The Dark Horses
Joseph Tegbe
Like in every race, there are dark horses who will struggle to make their impact felt. One of them is Joseph Tegbe. Tegbe was unofficial Economic Adviser to Governor Ajimobi. He was Ajimobi’s candidate until the 11th hour when Tinubu forced him to support Adelabu. Tegbe made impact at the time because Ajimobi put the structure of government behind him. The entire local government structure controlled by Mrs Wumi Ogunesan was put at his disposal. However, Tegbe parted ways with the Ajimobis when he was dropped and Ajimobi could not fulfill the promise of making him a minister in 2019. In the absence of a government structure and coupled with his crisis of identity which he faces and non-membership of the three main groups in the APC, that is, Lamists, SENACO and PDP Reformers, it is doubtful if Tegbe can get a foothold in the race.
A Senior Advocate of Nigeria and former Deputy Speaker under Chief Kolapo Isola, Akintola has been voracious in his quest to be APC candidate. However, he is not a member of any of the three main groups in the APC. His strong point has always been the relationship with Tinubu, but events have made it clear that Adelabu is the choice candidate of Tinubu. Akintola has always claimed affinity with the Ibadan royalty and elders, but indications are that the elders of Ibadan are thinly spread across the aspirants, including those who are not even from Ibadan, in their support.
Senator Fatai Buhari
Until recently, the general impression in APC was that Buhari wanted a third term in the senate representing Oyo North Senatorial Zone. He is viewed in some circles as the best performing Senator in Oyo State. However, he hails from Ogbomosho which has only three of the 13 local government areas in Oyo North Senatorial zone.
There are reports of youths of Oke Ogun openly challenging him to give them their Senatorial seat as they are tired of using 10 local governments to serve three local governments. Buhari’s headache is compounded by Akala sponsoring his son, Olamiju, to be Folarin’s running mate as governor. Ogbomosho with three out of 13 councils in Oyo North Senatorial Zone cannot produce the Senator and Deputy Governor leaving the 10 councils of Oke Ogun with nothing.
Many political watchers view Buhari’s recent show of interest in the governorship as a ploy to negotiate for a return to the Senate. It is yet to be seen how he can achieve this when Folarin’s governorship hopes lies on Akala, while it seems that the condition for Akala’s support for him is for his son, Olamiju, to be the deputy governorship candidate.
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