Tinubu at three: The gains, the pains…

MAY 29, 2023 was the date of formal inauguration of the incumbent President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who had won an election on the platform of the governing All Progressives Congress with a convincing margin.

The elaborate event for a change of baton between a predecessor and successor was symbolic. Aside the fact that both Buhari and Tinubu belonged to same ruling party, discerning Nigerians could spot certain differences between the two prominent figures in Nigeria’s turbulent political history: Tinubu was a pro- democracy activist, outspoken voice against military tyranny former governor, a kingmaker in APC who labored against all odds to become a king. His predecessor was a former military Head of State, reticent, dyed in wool ultraconservative, who fate and rugged determination thrusted into the most exalted seat in Nigeria.

Those familiar with Tinubu’s political trajectory, his success story as Lagos state governor were confident that his tenure would be a marked departure from his immediate predecessor, in terms of meeting expectations of the average Nigerian who longed for the basic necessities of life.

The excitement, the joy of having a thorough civilian and a progressive in the saddle was almost turned into ashes in the mouths of party faithful who were gathered within the precincts of Eagle Square ( venue of Tinubu’s “ coronation”) and Nigerians, those who stayed glued to their TV screens.

Tinubu in his inaugural speech had pronounced oil subsidy deadand went further to abolish multiple foreign exchange regime.

The President who declared that “ subsidy is gone,” assured Nigerians that the scarce public funds funneled to pay importers of refined petroleum products would be used to provide public infrastructures and add value to the lives of the citizenry .

Checks revealed that before his pronouncement , which jolted Nigerians, about N4.3trn naira was budgeted for fuel subsidy in 2022 while N 3.36trn naira was budgeted for it in the first half of 2023.

His declaration expectedly led to sudden rise in price of Premium Motor Spirit ( PMS), otherwise known as petrol, with a spiraling effect on other goods—- even before Tinubu stepped out of Eagles Square. 

Opposition parties decried the policy prounoncement as hasty, bereft of consultations and adequate safety nets in place to mitigate the effects of attendant inflation on Nigerians.

Oil industry players like the Independent Petroleum Marketers of Nigeria, ( IPMAN) equally faulted the timing, submitting that the new administration should have given a timeline to fix the moribund NNPCL refineries before scrapping the subsidy regime.

Three years down the line, a resilient Tinubu has justified his tough economic policy reforms, insisting that even when they were unpopular with Nigerians at the receiving end, such difficult but necessary decisions had to be taken to stabilise the economy and prevent a deeper national crisis.

In a statement on the third anniversary of his administration, Tinubu painted an unsavory picture of the economic crisis before him.

He said:” When this administration assumed office, our nation faced profound economic and structural difficulties. Mounting fiscal pressures, unsustainable fuel subsidies, declining revenues, exchange-rate distortions, rising debt-servicing costs, insecurity in several parts of the country, energy supply constraints, and declining public confidence in institutions all threatened our progress.

“At the height of the subsidy regime, Nigeria was spending as much as ₦18.4 billion daily to sustain petrol subsidies—over ₦4 trillion in 2022 alone—resources that could have been invested in roads, healthcare, education, housing, and critical infrastructure. Multiple exchange rate windows and forex arbitrage created massive distortions, with Nigeria losing more than ₦8 trillion over three years to rent-seeking and speculative practices.

“The situation demanded urgent and courageous action. Difficult but necessary decisions had to be taken to stabilise the economy and prevent a deeper national crisis. “The easy choices would have been politically convenient. “But leadership demands courage, especially when the right decisions are difficult.

“Had we refused to act, our nation would have drifted toward fiscal breakdown, worsening poverty, and severe economic uncertainty. “Together, we chose reform over ruin and decisiveness over hesitation. We chose long-term national recovery over short-term comfort.

“These decisions came with sacrifice. The rising cost of living triggered by our measures placed enormous pressure on families, workers, and businesses. Young people searching for jobs felt discouraged. “Many questioned whether these difficult decisions would lead to a better future.”

The pains, the empirical gains:

Tinubu did not leave the feats achieved by his tough economic policies hanging. In his anniversary speech, he offered empirical evidence of visible growth in the economy, money taken from rent seekers who benefitted massively from fuel importation but now tied to social infrastructures— fixing the highways, rail modernisation and investment in power sector, particularly renewable energy.

He said:” Across the country, visible progress is taking shape.”

“Our economy is now more competitive and better positioned for sustainable growth than it was in 2023. “Public finances are improving. States and local governments have greater resources to invest in their people. “Investor confidence is growing. The stock market is booming, with the All Share Index rising from 53,000 and market capitalisation of N30 Trillion in 2023 to a record All Share Index of 250,000 and market capitalisation of N160 Trillion this year. “Companies are declaring record profits and dividends.

“Critical infrastructure projects are advancing at an unprecedented scale. Over 2,700 kilometres of highways and major roads are under construction, reconstruction, or rehabilitation, including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, the Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway, the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Road, the East-West Road, and many rural access roads. “Significant sections are already completed or nearing completion, improving transportation, reducing travel time, boosting regional trade, and creating thousands of jobs.

“Rail modernisation projects are ongoing to improve connectivity, logistics, and economic integration across the federation.

“In the oil and gas sector, the reforms we instituted have attracted billions of dollars in fresh investment from the international oil companies that had shunned our country. The $5 billion NLNG Train 7 project is nearing completion to boost LNG production capacity, exports, and dividends.

“Domestic gas utilisation is expanding. Local refining capacity has improved our energy security. With large-scale domestic and modular refineries operational, Nigeria is reducing its dependence on imported petroleum products and conserving foreign exchange.”

Embarrassing gaps: Insecurity, unstable power

While Nigerians could feel the determined efforts to revamp infrastructures, mitigate the sufferings of helpless commuters through conversion of petrol engines to Compressed Natural Gas, ( CNG) at affordable prices for commercial vehicles and Nigerian Education Loan Fund for indigent students, insecurity remains palpable while power sectors appears irredeemable despite huge financial commitment.

In a firm resolve to walk his talks to address scary security challenges, the present administration made a provision of N5.41 trillion to defence and security in the 2026 Budget, the highest.

While declaring state of emergency on security, President Tinubu approved recruitment of 50,000 new police officers and thousands of military recruits.

But Nigerians find it difficult to reconcile the disconnect between huge financial investment in surveillance, logistics and modern technology with the resurgence in activities of bandits and terrorists.

Following attacks on schools in Orire Local Government Area, over 46 abductees, teachers, students, including a two year old remain in the custody of terrorists in old Oyo National Park corridor.

Over 42 students of Musa Central Primary School and Government Day Junior

 Secondary School in Askira-Uba Local Government Area abducted last month are still in custody of terrorists.

In his last Friday Democracy Day broadcast, President Tinubu agonized over the fate of innocent students in captivity as he declared that “democracy without security is a mirage.”

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The President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces who revealed that “over 13,000 terrorists have been neutralised in the past year,” appealed to Nigerians to “stand united and be assured that the enemies of our nation shall soon be history. We will triumph over terror and continue to build a more prosperous nation, “ he assured.