Seven swing states that may decide 2024 US election

About 240 million people can vote in this year’s US election. Still, only a relatively small number of them, seven swing states,  are likely to decide who becomes the next president.

Under the US Constitution, it is established that each of the 50 states would hold its vote for president and under the complex Electoral College system, each state has a certain number of “electors,” based on population. However, most states have a winner-take-all system that awards all electors to whoever wins the popular vote.

Elections are typically decided in the high-stakes “swing states” that have a history of switching between Republican and Democratic candidates. This is because candidates need to receive 270 of the 538 electoral votes in order to win.

Vice President, Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are getting ready for the election confrontation that will take place on November 5. This election is expected to be one of the most tight battles in the history of contemporary American politics.

There are just a few states that are considered to be “swing” states, according to the opinions of experts, and it is possible that either Democrat Harris or Republican Trump may win those states.

This year, seven of such battlegrounds – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – seem to hold the keys to the White House.

Here is a look at the seven swing states:

Pennsylvania 

Electoral college votes: 19 of 538
State population: 13 million people
2020 winner: Biden by 82,000 votes.

Pennsylvania was once reliably Democratic, but these days, they don’t come much tighter than the Keystone State.

Trump won the most populous battleground, with 13 million residents, by 0.7 percentage points in 2016. Joe, while President Biden claimed it by 1.2 percentage points in 2020.

Trump and Harris have campaigned repeatedly in the eastern state, where the pair held their one and only presidential debate. Trump, who survived an assassination attempt at a July rally in Pennsylvania, is courting the rural white population and warning that migrants are overwhelming small towns.

The state proved pivotal in the 2020 election, backing Biden. He has often spoken of his connection to the working-class city of Scranton, where he grew up.

The economy is a a top issue here, as well as many other places. Inflation spiked across the country under the Biden administration, before gradually reducing.

Pennsylvanians are far from unique among Americans for feeling cost-of-living pressures as a result of inflation.

High inflation could hurt Harris across the US as polling suggests it is giving voters an unfavourable view of the economy.

Trump has sought to attack her by pinning her to the Biden economy.

Harris is touting recent infrastructure wins, and in Pittsburgh she outlined plans to invest $100 billion in manufacturing, a key issue for state residents.

Georgia

Electoral college votes: 16 of 538
State population: 11 million people
2020 winner: Biden by 13,000 votes.

A third of Georgia’s population is African-American, one of the country’s largest proportions of black residents, and it is believed that this demographic was instrumental in Biden flipping the state in 2020.

Some disillusionment with Biden had been reported among America’s black voters, but the Harris campaign hopes to animate this constituency.

This southeastern state was an election flashpoint at the end of Trump’s first term, and the controversy simmers.

Prosecutors in Georgia indicted Trump in an election interference case after he called state officials urging them to “find” enough votes to overturn Biden’s narrow 2020 victory.

However, in a boost for Trump, the case is paused until after the election.

Biden was the first Democrat to win the Peach State since 1992. Demographic changes are likely to benefit Harris, who has courted minority voters across Georgia.

North Carolina

Electoral college votes: 16 of 538
State population: 10.8 million people
2020 winner: Trump by 74,000 votes.

The southeastern state has voted Democratic only once since 1980, but Harris believes it’s back in play.

The population, now over 10 million, is expanding and growing more diverse, benefiting Democrats.

Polls appear to have tightened in the Tar Heel State after Harris assumed her place at the top of the Democratic ticket, and some analysts now call it a “toss-up”.

North Carolina borders Georgia, and shares some of its top electoral concerns, as well as those in Arizona, another Sun Belt state.

Trump carried North Carolina in 2020 but did so by just over 70,000 votes, which has further buoyed Democrats’ hopes that this “purple” state (one that could vote red or blue) could be winnable in this election year.

Complicating matters for Trump, a scandal involving the state’s Republican gubernatorial candidate has infuriated party officials who worry it could sink Trump in a close race.

As in neighbouring Georgia, one wild card is how the devastation from storm Helene, which recently laid waste to towns in western North Carolina, might impact the vote.

Michigan

Electoral college votes: 15 of 538
State population: 10 million people
2020 winner: Biden by 150,000 votes.

The Great Lakes state has picked the winning presidential candidate in the last two elections. Despite backing Biden in 2020, it has become symbolic of a nationwide backlash over the president’s support for Israel during that country’s war in Gaza.

During Michigan’s Democratic primary contest in February, more than 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option on their ballots, part of a campaign mounted by activists who want the US government to halt its military aid to Israel.

Notably, Michigan has the country’s largest proportion of Arab-Americans – a demographic whose support for Biden was in jeopardy. But Harris has taken a harder tone on Israel, and some people believe she will be more sympathetic to their cause.

Trump has highlighted the state’s significance in his potential path to victory. Commenting on events in the Middle East, he has called on Israel to finish its campaign over Hamas in Gaza, but “get it over with fast”.

Trump flipped Michigan, a former Democratic stronghold, on his way to defeating Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Biden returned it to the blue column in 2020, buoyed by unionized workers and a large Black community.

But this time, Harris risks losing the support of a 200,000-strong Arab-American community that has denounced Biden’s — and by extension her — handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

Arizona

Electoral college votes: 11 of 538.
State population: 7.4 million people.
2020 winner: Biden by 10,000 votes.

The Democrats gained the presidency in 2020 with the support of the Grand Canyon State, which narrowly voted to back the party’s candidate for the first time since the 1990s.

This state borders Mexico for hundreds of miles, and has become a focal point of the nation’s immigration debate.

Trump hopes frustrations over the Biden-Harris administration’s immigration policy will swing Arizona, which shares a border with Mexico, back in his favor.

Harris visited Arizona’s border in September vowing to crack down on migration and work on reviving last year’s bipartisan border bill, which she said Trump “tanked” for political purposes.

He has also vowed to carry out “the largest deportation operation” in US history if he regains the presidency.

Border crossings have fallen in recent months from record highs, which have made the issue near the top of voters’ concerns.

Arizona has also hosted a bitter row over abortion access, after state Republicans tried unsuccessfully to reinstate a 160-year-old near-total ban on terminating pregnancies.

Wisconsin

Electoral college votes: 10 of 538
State population: 5.9 million people
2020 winner: Biden by 21,000 votes.

Clinton lost Wisconsin after giving the state a wide berth during the 2016 campaign.

Analysts have suggested it is in marginal states like this one where an impact could be made by third-party candidates who are campaigning against the policies of the big two candidates.

Polling had indicated that a sizeable show of support for independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr could have harmed the vote tallies for Harris or Trump. Kennedy suspended his campaign in late August and endorsed Trump.

Democrats have been fighting to have Green Party candidate Jill Stein removed from the ballot here, saying the party did not comply with state election laws, and has also filed an elections complaint against Cornel West, a left-leaning academic.

Trump has described that state as “really important… if we win Wisconsin, we win the whole thing”. The summer Republican National Convention was held in Milwaukee.

Harris was rallying in that same city when her party’s own convention formally nominated her as the Democratic presidential candidate, appearing via a live feed.

As with Midwestern neighbor Michigan, it was a different story when Trump’s opponent was Biden, who turned a 23,000-vote deficit into a winning margin of 21,000 for Democrats.

Nevada

Electoral college votes: 6 of 538
State population: 3.2 million people
2020 winner: Biden by 34,000 votes.

The Silver State, with a population of 3.1 million, hasn’t voted Republican since 2004. Conservatives, buoyed by Trump’s headway with Hispanic voters, are convinced they can flip the script.

Recent averages published by poll-tracking firm 538 indicate that polls once showed Trump enjoying a wide lead over Biden, but that advantage has shrunk since Harris became the top of the ticket.

Democrats had hoped a candidate with greater appeal to younger and more diverse voters would close the gap.

Both candidates are vying to win the state’s sizeable Latino population.

Despite the fact that the US economy has shown strong growth and jobs creation since Mr Biden took the presidency, the post-Covid recovery has been slower in Nevada than elsewhere.

At 5.1%, the state has the highest unemployment rate in the country, after California and the District of Columbia, according to the latest US government statistics.

If Trump comes to power again, he has vowed a return to an agenda of lower taxes across the board, and fewer regulations.

Trump held a significant lead here against Biden.

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