Osun guber: Tough choices before Omisore, Ife, Osogbo

AS I was putting this piece together, I was reliably informed that a power-sharing deal was being worked out by APC patriarch, Chief Bisi Akande, between the campaign organisation of Osun APC gubernatorial candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, and the Senator Iyiola Omisore-led group within the same opposition party in the state. A meeting between the two sides is for Sunday (today) in Abuja, according to a participating source. The “healing” process was reportedly at the behest of Oyebamiji’s unarguable godfather and Marine Minister (sounds like aquatic mysticism), the second, one-term governor (OTG) of the state, Gboyega Oyetola. Incidentally, Chief Akande, also of the progressive fold, is Oyetola’s senior in this undesirable class of sacked incumbents. Interestingly too, the only governor in the history of the state to have completed a two-term mandate is former progressive firebrand, Rauf Aregbesola, who now leads right-wing-leaning opposition to the first seeming-progressive president and former boss, Bola Tinubu, who operates more like a liberal. While the first term of now-late Isiaka Adeleke, sibling of the incumbent, known in their political circle as Adeleke senior, was cut short by the June 12, 1993 crisis and the attendant military adventure in power, Olagunsoye Oyinlola’s supposed 2003 to 2011 two-term mandate was cut short by the judicially imposed Aregbesola in 2010. The incumbent, Jackson Adeleke, is seeking in August to become the second civilian governor in the history of the state to win and complete a second term. If August favours him, he would be the first-ever governor in the state’s history to win two consecutive mandates from voters; a slim departure from Aregbesola’s first term, a judicially made governorship.

Since 1999, Osun has established a pattern and path to gubernatorial success. In the three senatorial districts of West, East and Central are the three towns that define the electoral map and decide electoral success, due to their voting strength, once two of the trio choose to collabo. In West is the dominant Edeland which produced the incumbent, partnering with Ifeland in East, where the current deputy governor is from. The partnership in 2022 rid the Abere Government House of Oyetola from Central, though he is not from Osogboland, the highest vote-grosser in the zone.

While the Adeleke winning ticket is still intact despite platform change, APC, led by the man defeated four years ago and desirous of paying the incumbent back, went to same Osun West, Ikire to be precise, to controversially nominate Oyebamiji, an Oyetola surrogate. To complete the ticket copycatism, APC also turned to Ife for Oyebamiji’s running mate, after the party at the national level, leveraging on the support of its apex leader, President Bola Tinubu, humiliated Omisore, the age-long, undisputed political leader and trajector of Ifeland, out of the party’s gubernatorial race.

Weeks after the contentious Oyebamiji nomination, it would appear dawned on Oyetola as APC leader in the state that to make a decent dent on Adeleke’s path to re-election, not only should their ticket reflect the incumbent’s combination, the strongman of Ife politics would have to be in the mix and on their side, working for them, hence the signal for horse trading.

An uncle in Ijesaland politics days back described Omisore as a cat with nine lives, who has a way of bouncing back when you think his back isn’t just against the wall but on the ground.

Before today’s meeting, rumour had festered that Adeleke’s Accord was making overtures to Omisore and the panic of that possibility reportedly quickened the olive branch from his party, which had reportedly sidelined him since the emergence of Oyebamiji. Now, Omisore is the beautiful bride of the August poll but, unlike 2022 when he functioned as the national secretary of APC and duty-bound to work for its success, he is a free bird in this election cycle and could roam as desired, though there has been a kind of sustained animosity between him and the Adeleke political dynasty, dating back to his PDP days alongside Adeleke senior and the constant struggle for political ascendancy between them.

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Certainly nothing is given in politics, though APC would feel more like home for Omisore and the Ife community is certain to retain the number two spot, regardless of who triumphs between Adeleke and Oyebamiji. From information flowing to me, Omisore would appear wanting to make APC sweat for his support and his armada of political influence in Osun East (he has a strong support base in Ijesaland too that many even consider bigger than Aregbesola’s, despite the latter being a son of the soil). I have his detailed ask from the Oyetola team but let’s just say he is asking big not to be treated small. You can’t blame him. The Lagos group led by President Tinubu just showed him how humiliatingly belittling it can make helpless gladiators; telling the immediate past national scribe of the party he didn’t understand the process of putting himself up for a nomination fight! And to think the same person handled the nomination process for Aspirant Tinubu to become Candidate Tinubu and ultimately President Tinubu. Mehn, politics can be condescending!

Even among Omisore supporters, in Ife and beyond, they know he asked big and do have an understanding of what their leader may return with from today’s meeting. Their expectation (tickets to be ceded to his group) would be deemed reasonably good in a normal election cycle but the permutations about now and the immediate future have made nearly everything about the Osun guber contest contextually different.

Having produced three deputy governors with a likely fourth on the way, you can’t blame the Ife for looking beyond 2026 and another four years of being a “spare” in the governance of the state. If you have been the second calabash for three times and you have the capacity to change your fortune, why won’t you?

If Adeleke wins a second term in office, Osun West including Oyebamiji’sIkire would have fulfilled the aspiration propelling the “West lokan” (turn of Osun West to produce governor) slogan which began when Aregbesola from East was rounding off in 2018, only for Central in Oyetola to snatch the seat. After West, the preponderance of opinions favours Omisore’s East and, with Ijesa having had their turn through Rauf Aregbesola, it’s taken that the Ife should produce the governor from any major platform in 2030. Already a declaration has gone into effect on it in Ifeland and whoever is seen working against it is likely to become an automatic enemy of the ancestral land, including its own. Whether it would be Omisore again at about 73 years in 2030 or someone else seems immaterial to the Ife. All they seem to care about now is producing Osun governor in 2030.

But in that promising tomorrow is also the dilemma of Omisore and his people. The likely victory of the candidate of his party, who is now desperately courting the Ife strongman, will throw a spanner into the Ife agenda since there is no agreement Oyebamiji would serve a term. His possible election this year and likely re-election in 2030 would keep the Ife waiting for another eight years, meaning a straight 12 years for West. How tantalising!

In fact, if West wants to do wayo (play games) with the other two senatorial districts, its political leaders could wangle an understanding that would make Adeleke lose deliberately to Oyebamiji, for the zone to have the possible 12 unbroken years like Central with Akande of then-AD and Oyinlola of PDP doing back to back for their zone, though there was no known senatorial alliance, at least in the public domain, to keep the Abere seat within the Central “family”. Can Oyebamiji repeat the Oyinlola feat for his party and, more importantly, for his West?

Unfortunately for him (Oyebamiji), he needs those he wants to deny a future aspiration to fulfil his own present dream. Both Ife and Osogbo, the two big Osun communities that shape gubernatorial contests, are yet to produce a governor, though the Western Region governorship held by now-late Adesoji Aderemi, the Ooni of Ife between 1960 and 1962, is being imputed to the Ife as a slot filled. For Osogbo, despite being the state capital and a voting powerhouse, all it has to its résumé is Titilayo Laoye-Tomori as deputy governor to Aregbesola for eight years. While Central, where Osogbo belongs, can’t in good conscience aggressively bid like the East in 2030, having produced three governors in Akande, Oyinlola and Oyetola, the fact that Osogbo has remained a mere vote-hunting ground for other zones doesn’t sound fair. It’s like saying you can’t be the seat of power and still have power. Let others sit on you while hunting for their own. Despite Central as a zone serving as a weak spot for Osogbo with three governors already, the town can still make a statement in August to shape its political relevance for the future. Even for Osogbo, another two-term governor from elsewhere can also elongate the pause imposed on it by other governor-producing towns in its zone. Osogbo political leaders would have to decide the quicker path to Abere, starting with the choices to be made in August.

The Ife have a better deal but difficult options to choose from. Certainly they would have number two again and taking the main seat in the next four years depends on which party to save now and which to sink. Both leading parties have the number two spot already on the platter but Adeleke’s Accord offers an almost certain number one spot for the Ife in 2030 if an agreement is made now to support the incumbent, who already has an Ife indigene as deputy.

Omisore and the Adelekes may not be the best of friends but permanent enmity surely doesn’t belong in the realm of politics. In making today’s negotiations real, both Omisore and Oyetola (Oyebamiji is just Oyetola 2.0) are fighting for relevance post-August. There have been hush-hush talks about Oyetola propping up Oyebamiji to give a semblance of contest, for West to complete its 8 years in Adeleke. It looks far-fetched considering the animosity between the duo in the build-up to Oyetola’s crushing defeat in 2022, but never say never in politics. Omisore isn’t likely to personally benefit much from today’s “truce”, but his political family, mostly outside Ife, will. But an arrangement conceding the governorship seat to the Ife in 2030 positions him to fulfil a years-long ambition, though it certainly won’t be on the platform of his current party if it wins in August. His group is, however, poised to “benefit” from the same party trying to keep the future farther from their leader. Ironic?

So what is it going to be? Run with the hare and hunt with the hounds? If APC gives Omisore his ask at today’s meeting in exchange for his group’s full support in August, all eyes would definitely be on him while navigating the immediate, without forfeiting the future.

Again, the man who is not on the ballot will be the cynosure. What grace!