The race for the Alagbaka Government House has gathered momentum in Ondo State, with three main contenders for the number one seat. HAKEEM GBADAMOSI writes on the strength of the top candidates in the race.
AHEAD of the October 10 governorship election in Ondo State, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has unveiled 17 political parties that will be participating in the election. But in terms of the visibility of the candidates and their parties across the 18 local government areas of the state, the race for the Alagbaka House appears to be a three-horse game with the emergence of the embattled deputy governor of the state, Honourable Agboola Ajayi, as the governorship candidate of the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP), which is reputed as the third force in the politics of the Sunshine State.
Candidates of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition before the coming of ZLP, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Rotimi Akeredolu and Eyitayo Jegede respectively were regarded as the front runners and are also said to have warmed themselves into the consciousness of the people of the state. The coming of the ZLP has made the contest a three-horse race. Pundits have, accordingly, begun permutations about the likely outcome of the contest.
The embattled deputy governor of the state, Ajayi had dominated the media space in the last two months after parting ways with his principal, Akeredolu, to join the PDP, where he contested and lost the party’s ticket to Jegede. Not satisfied with the treatment received in PDP, Ajayi lfet the umbrella party and pitched his tent with the ZLP.
Interestingly, the three strong gladiators in the race hailed from the three senatorial districts in the state. While Jegede hails from the central, Akeredolu is from the north and Ajayi hails from the south. It is also interesting to know that the three senatorial districts comprise of six local government areas each, with differing voting population.
Just like the 2016 governorship election, this governorship pattern will be a three-horse race, where three top contenders hailed from the three senatorial districts in the state. Jegede and Akeredolu seemed to be in a familiar terrain as they both contested in the 2016 race, which Jegede lost.
The Sunshine State has the voting strength of 1,643,350 voters of the 1,822,346 registered voters who have collected their Permanent Voters Card (PVC) and these voters would determine the fate of these three men, who are all legal luminary by profession.
The breakdown of the senatorial districts indicated that Ondo Central has 669,648, Ondo North 443,556 and Ondo South with 530,146. Though the political space of the state has been reconfigured among the three leading parties, it is, however, predicted that voters in the state might vote along ethnic line.
Looking at the six sub-ethnic divisions in the state – the Akoko speaking, the Owo people, Akure which encompasses Ifedore and the two Akure local government areas, Ondo speaking of Ondo, Ile Oluji and Idanre, Ilaje speaking nation, the Ikale and the Ijaw speaking – it is only Akure, Ilaje and Ijaw ethnic groups that have not produced a governor in the state. The Akoko had it in Adefarati, the Owo had it in Ajasin and Akeredolu, the Ondo have it in Mimiko, and the Ikale speaking group had it in Dr Olusegun Agagu.
Voters of Akure extraction are spread through three local government areas that have always dictated who wins any election in the state. They may hold the ace in the October duel. The Akure people have been clamouring to produce the number one citizen since over 40 years of the state’s existence and while Jegede’s candidacy offers them much hope in that regard, the votes from the area are not enough to do the magic.
The Ondo Central where the PDP candidate, Jegede, hails from has the largest number of voters of about 669,648 with Akure South, the political home and base of Jegede, having the highest number of voters, not only in the district but in the state with 261, 281 voters. Jegede will be hoping to secure the majority votes of this area and be praying some parts of Akure don’t vote for the ZLP running mate, Gboye Adegbenro, a former commissioner under Mimiko, as well as other parties.
Adegbenro hails from Akure-speaking part of Ifedore Local Government Area of the state in Ilara-Mokin and he will be banking on securing his people’s affirmation for ZLP. The APC chairman, Ade Adetimehin is from the Idanre, but the area is regarded as one of the strongholds of PDP in the state, as the Senator representing Ondo Central, Ayo Akinyelure and a former Commissioner for Information under Mimiko, Kayode Akinmade, hails from the town. Also, a former Chief of Staff to Mimiko, Dr Kola Ademujinmi, who is the Director General of Ajayi campaign group, is also from there. Apart from this, the PDP won the House of Assembly seat for the area during the 2019 general election but the lawmaker, Festus Akingbaso, seems to have pitched his tent with the ZLP candidate, Ajayi.
Unlike in 2016 governorship election when Jegede political godfather, Mimiko, secured the votes of Ondo West and East, the ZLP is hoping to mop up majority votes in these two local government areas. APC, despite picking a candidate from the northern part of the state, looks hopeful of a good win in Akure North, considering the array of political bigwigs from the area which include the Minister of State for Niger Delta, Senator Tayo Alasoadura and the state Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure, Saka Yusuf Ogunleye and a host of others.
One factor has not changed much since he left office. Mimiko still wields a great deal of political influence in the three Ondo speaking local government of the central, which include Ondo West, Ondo East and Idanre Local Government Areas.
The voting pattern of these three councils of Ondo extraction is always similar, showing a kind of affinity in the political direction of the area. It is apparent that the voting pattern of the two local government areas in the ancient Ondo city and Idanre has always followed same trend. The people of Ile Oluji, who are geographically and culturally linked with the Ondos and Idanres but had been categorised to be within Ondo Southern district, observers say, may decide to go with their kinsman from Ondo and Idanre, Ajayi. With about 66,000 votes coming from this local government, ZLP might hold the ace in the area.
Ondo South Senatorial District is known to be the stronghold of the PDP and this might accounted for the number of PDP aspirants who contested the party’s primary election from the area. But the ticket was won by Jegede from the central. It remains to be seen if majority of the contestants are still irked by the outcome of the election or have accepted to work Jegede. The decision of the party in the choice of Jegede’s running mate is also a factor.
Though Ajayi is from the southern senatorial district, from the minority of the minority of the coastal area of Ese Odo, he remains a force to reckon with in the politics of the state. He is a former local government chairman of Ese Odo and one-term House of Representatives. But does he have the muscle to lockdown the votes from the district? The people of the area are clamouring for power to shift.
Akeredolu can be said to be enjoying some backing from the people of the Ondo South who argue that it will only be proper to allow him complete his second tenure in line with unwritten agreement for power rotation among the three geo-political zones of the state. Beside this, those who hail from the Ondo South see Akeredolu as the shortest bridge for power to move to their area after the North Senatorial zone, which the governor represents, might have completed eight years like his predecessor, Mimiko who is from Ondo Central.
The Ondo South might turn out to be the battle ground for the three political parties. It is undoubtedly Ajayi’s home front, but votesfrom the area, according to observers, might be shared. Akeredolu’s running mate, Lucky Ayedatiwa, is from the Ilaje Local Government Area of Ondo South which has the largest voting strength in the zone.
Ayedatiwa commands great followership, respect and acceptance in the south and beyond. Many of the foot soldiers and Akeredolu appointees in this area have been mobilising to secure victory for the party. Apart from this, Akeredolu will be banking on some developmental projects his administration executed in the region to campaign for him.
The recent coming together of the APC members in the unity forum is an added advantage for Akeredolu. One of the leading lights of the forum, who is regarded as a strong force to reckon with in the state politics, Chief Olusola Oke, has keyed in into the APC agenda of Akeredolu for second term.
Oke, the Alliance for Democracy (AD) candidate in the 2016 election, won the two Ilaje and Okitipupa Local Government Areas. The return and presence of Oke in Akeredolu’s fold is a boost for APC and Akeredolu in the election.
Though Oke contested in the APC primary election, but lost to Akeredolu, the governors and the members of the aggrieved forum have been able to iron out their differences ahead of the election.
The construction of Ore fly over, which is the first of its kind in the state, the industrial hubs in Ore, the exploration and exploitation of bitumen in the Ondo South, sea ports among other strides have always been a reference point for APC at every opportunity given to campaign to the people of the zone.
The PDP deputy governorship candidate, Ikengboju Gboluga, hails from the southern district in Okitipupa Local Government Area which used to be the stronghold of the party since the return of the country to civil administration in 1999.
Given that the people of the area are aggrieved over the choice of Jegede, who hails from the central, Gboluga’s presence in the race should be enough to facilitate victory for the party in some of the local government, especially Okitipupa and Irele where he represents at the National Assembly.
If the PDP wants a big victory in Ondo South, observers note the most of the core politicians who command followership in the area and who have withdrawn to their shell immediately after the primaries that threw up Jegede, need to be persuaded to keep faith with the party.
One of the aspirant’s campaign groups, Ben Banji Okunomo Campaign Organisation, recently declared his withdrawing support for the PDP. The group, in a communique signed by its chairman, Bitire Solomon, accused Jegede of not being magnanimous in victory and sidelining other groups within the party.
The BBO alleged that, sequel to his emergence as the flagbearer of the party, Jegede manipulated the party structure to favour his political camp at the expense of others. Jegede was also accused of foisting on the party his running mate, despite stiff opposition to this choice.
However, some members of the aggrieved PDP who would have loved to support Ajayi to realise his dreams might not work for him because of the platform he is contesting. Many politicians from the Southern Senatorial District are still said to nurse a grudge against Mimiko believed to have thwarted the aspiration of the Ondo South to take control the state after him. Mimiko was alleged to have imposed Jegede, who hailed from the same senatorial district with him, on the party.
Though Mimiko is not contesting in the coming election, Ajayi is said to be riding on his political shoulder to achieve his dream of governing the state and some of his foot soldiers might have chosen to be neutral than work for Ajayi.
Apart from this, many of them see Ajayi as over ambitious and his quest for power as inordinate, saying that he should have stayed in PDP and deployed his arsenal to ensure PDP sends Akeredolu packing rather than contesting in ZLP. However, political analysts see the race in the Ondo South to be mainly between the APC and ZLP.
The lawmaker representing the Ondo South, Senator Nicholas Tofowomo, who is a PDP member is from Ile Oluji. But can he muster the votes for the party? He has been said to be inactive politically lately. Though he still commands respect in the community, analysts say he is up for a tough battle as the Commissioner for Finance, Wale Akinterinwa, and Pius Osunyinkanmi coming from the ancient town of Ile Oluji.
Odigbo is populated with non-indigenes and it is the commercial nerve of the state, which has been the stronghold of APC. The residents of this area are mainly from Oyo and Osun speaking towns, who are speculated to have the tendency to lean towards the APC in their states.
The House of Representatives member representing the area, Honourable Mayowa Akinfolarin, an APC member, is another quiet politician from the area who commands a huge followership. A former deputy speaker in the state House of Assembly and two-term House of Representatives member, Akinfolarin’s influence in Odigbo is speculated to be strong enough to swing votes in Akeredolu’s favour.
The Northern District where Akeredolu hails from is being said to be a no-go area for either ZLP or PDP. The two opposition parties never looked towards the area to pick their running mates. Akeredolu remains the only candidate in the contest with roots from the Ondo North.
This is an advantage for the incumbent as the people of the district may still prefer to have the number one citizen from the area. APC expects block votes from this area, especially from Owo, Ose and the Akokos. The return of Olusegun Abraham and the Senator representing the district, Senator Ajayi Boroffice, to Akeredolu’s camp is also seen as an added advantage as they openly endorsed the candidacy of Akeredolu.
The three House of Representatives members from the Ondo North are in Akeredolu’s camp. These National Assembly lawmakers have been working underneath after Akeredolu emerged as APC candidate to ensure his return and winning the area which has about 450,000 voters.
Akeredolu appears to have succeeded in holding APC together with the pacification of members of the unity forum, thus cementing the cracks initially noticed and ending factions within the party, in addition to his deep pocket to prosecute the election.
Apart from this, Akeredolu has also been receiving endorsement from virtually all sectors –from traditional rulers, religious groups, and even political groups. The 43 political parties de-registered recently by INEC have come together to collapse their structures for Akeredolu to ensure his re-election. Though it remains to be seen what strength these parties will bring to bear on Akeredolu’s candidature.
The governor’s drive towards ensuring water tight security in the state through the introduction of Amotekun has been a blessing to his ambition. Many believe there would be no justification to deny him second tenure.
Several factors will nevertheless determine where the pendulum swings at the end of the day. Apart from the federal support the incumbent might enjoy, Akeredolu’s achievements, according to major political players in the state, set him apart in the race. But with the decision to reduce the tuition for students of the state-owned tertiary institution in the state, analysts argue that the governor himself knows the election won’t be a tea party, as some of the unpleasant policies of his government will also be played up by the opposition.
The strengths and weaknesses of the three candidates seem to have divided the voters across the state. Akeredolu’s supporters have always maintained that his chances in the October 10 election will draw strength from his achievements of the current administration, including the regular payment of workers as well as the liquidation of inherited salary arears.
While many believe that the state’s infrastructural development is a plus for the APC in the state, others are of the opinion that an alternative party should be allowed to provide the remedy for the increasing economic hardship faced by the state.
Some section of the state voters tends to look towards the way of Jegede to provide succour for the people of the state in this area, as Ajayi is seen to be part of the current government, who played an important role and contributed to some of the challenges faced by Akeredolu’s government.
But the feeling appears different in some quarters as some voters said the APC government has a slim chance due to the hardship which the government at the center failed to attend to.
One thing is certain: there are three main choices before voters in Ondo on October 10. Who should be the deciders are the people of the state.
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