A Call for Free Education and Free Healthcare Delivery for ALL Nigerians as contained in the University of Ife Convocation Speech by Chief Obafemi Awolowo on Saturday, 6th July, 1974.
CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK
IT FOLLOWS THAT, IF THE 1963 FIGURES ARE ‘NEAREST THE TRUTH’, THEN THE 1973 FIGURES ARE ‘FURTHEST FROM THE TRUTH’.
In the second place, during the inter-census periods of 1931 to 1953 and 1953 to 1963, the trend in inter-regional population movements showed that the South was gaining steadily at the expense of the North.
In 1931, the population of the North was 58 per cent of the total for the country, in 1953 it was 55 per cent; and in 1963 it was 54 per cent.
I hasten to add that it does not even require arithmetical calculations such as these to demonstrate that the South has, population wise since 1931, been gaining steadily at the expense of the North: the trend is visible for everyone in Nigeria to see. And having regard to the existing economic and social circumstances of the country, this trend is not only natural and normal, but also necessary and welcome.
The 1973 PROVISIONAL census figures have, however, shown a complete and sharp reversal of this normal trend. During the intercensal period of 1963 to 1973, the North has moved from 54 per cent of total population to 65 per cent. Unless it can be established that there was gross undercounting of the North in 1963 as compared with the rest of the country, which from all available evidence was certainly not the case, what the 1973 provisional result necessarily implies, therefore, among other things, is that many more Southerners had moved to the North between 1963 and 1973 than the other way round. This is obviously not the case. On the contrary, as We all know, population movement from the North to the South Was greater and more massive in the last ten years than ever before.
In the third place, the average population growth rate for Africa as a whole is 2.7 per cent whilst the growth rates in West African countries range between 1.9 per cent and 3 per cent.
The 1973 provisional census result for Nigeria, however, indicates that the range of growth rates in our 12 States is between – 0.62 per cent in the Western State and 7.04 per cent in the North-Eastern State.
THIS JUST CANNOT BE TRUE. And for anyone seriously to suggest that it can in the face of the visible, tangible relative factors for population growth in the different States in the country, is to deny ordinary commonsense to the Nigerian populace, and to inflict grievous wounds both on our body politic and on the feelings of thinking Nigerian citizens.
In the fourth place, the provisional figures have revived, with greater vividness and starker reality, the erstwhile fear of permanent domination of one group of Nigerians by another.
According to the provisional figures, the population of North-East and Kana States alone is almost equal to that of the South put together. And if the utterly false trends of population growths in the States, indicated by the provisional figures, were contrived and repeated in 1983 – and one cannot now see, if the provisional figures are allowed to stand, why a repeat performance should not occur in 1983; if the same trends were repeated in 1983 by the same contrivances, then 74 per cent of all Nigerians would be living in the North ten years from now!
The fear and dreadful forebodings which the provisional figures struck into the minds of many Nigerians have been further heightened, on reflection, by the steady erosion of the powers of the States in favour of the Federal Government. A close analysis of the situation will reveal that the country is already sliding back to a unitary form of Government behind an imposing facade of federalism. And as we all know, under a unitary form of Government, by whatever name called and no matter how many ineffective States there are in the country, whichever party controls the Central Government controls all and dominates all.
The seeds of fierce inter-ethnic strife are already sown by the provisional figures; all Nigerian patriots, both in the North and the South, must unite in an appeal to the Supreme Military Council to prevail on the National Census Board to remove the seeds before they germinate and grow.
I am aware that those responsible for the 1973 census figures would like us to treat them as PROVISIONAL ONLY. I am also aware that they have assured us that they are immediately embarking on rigorous post-enumeration tests, surveys and checks which by the end of this year, would produce final accurate figures which could be greater or less than the so-called provisional figures.
It is my humble, respectful, but considered view that, again, we should all appeal to the National Census Board and to our Head of State, H.E. General Yakubu Gowon, to prevail upon the Board, to desist from this post-enumeration exercise. It can have no useful or beneficial end: it can only produce result which would exacerbate feelings which are already wounded and embittered, or embitter those that are now at peace with the Board.
In the end, it would only involve the nation in further colossal dissipation and waste of energy and money. During the period of waiting, greater inter-state and inter-ethnic tension would be generated, and their deep wound already inflicted on our body politic would have that much time to fester and become traumatic.
There are other reasons why the proposed post-enumeration exercise should be abandoned.
In the first place, final census figures after post-enumeration checks, etc., are never more than 5 per cent above or below the provisional figures. In the instant case, 5 per cent above would land us in a desert of deep inter-ethnic distrust from which it would take us long to escape: 5 per cent below would only confirm us in the present deplorable and intolerable position. Up to and more than 10 per cent below would be proof positive of the worthlessness of the provisional figures.
CONTINUES NEXT WEEK
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