As the countdown to the June 18 governorship election in Ekiti State progresses, ‘YOMI AYELESO reports in this piece the stake in the poll especially as relates to the political sagacity of leading gladiators, as well as the implications of the contest on July 18, 2022 Osun governorship poll and the 2023 general election.
Aside the fact that the June 18 governorship election will afford the people of Ekiti State the chance to elect a new governor who will take over from the incumbent, Dr Kayode Fayemi later in the year, it will also speak about the strengths and otherwise of some gladiators and power brokers in the state and set the tone for future elections in the country. Since 1999, four individuals have been involved prominently in the politics of Ekiti State every election year either directly or indirectly. These political actors have remained relevant and powerful in the governance of the state. They are, former governors, Adeniyi Adebayo, Ayodele Fayose, Segun Oni and the incumbent Fayemi.
Interestingly, the quartet will be involved the battle on who succeeds Fayemi covertly and overtly and preserve their influence. The duo of Adebayo, who is the current minister of trade, investment and industry and Fayemi are throwing in everything in their arsenal to install the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Biodun Oyebanji.
On the other hand, Fayose who was instrumental to the emergence of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate and former chairman of the party, Bisi Kolawole, is determined to deliver victory for the opposition party, considering the efforts he is putting in the ongoing campaigns..
Oni, who had only one term between 2007 and 2010 before he was sacked by court, is launching a comeback to the government house for second term this time on the ticket of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which analysts have described as the Third Force for the election.
Fayemi, a presidential aspirant in the APC and chairman of the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF), will be using the election to make a statement on his political strength not only nationally but at home. Instrumental to the emergence of Oyebanji as the party’s standard-bearer, the governor would be establishing his own cycle of installing a successor in the interest of consolidation and continuity of policies and programmes in the state. But, observers say it is beyond the continuity mantra but to nurture his political structures and interest when he leaves office.
No doubt, the poll is an important exercise for former Governor Fayose for many reasons. Having failed in his bid to install a successor 2018, Fayose will be deploying everything to sway the votes in favour of Kolawole. So, the election is key to the political career of the vocal politician. The result will define the strength and acceptability of the PDP leader in the state’s political firmament. Political watchers are saying back-to-back governorship defeat of Fayose’s candidates, might put him in a difficult situation politically in the state.
The poll also has implications for another former governor, Oni. Considering his age, the outcome will define his quest of ruling the state again. Based on his utterances during electioneering, it is clear the engineer is determined to affirm his strength in the political space in Ekiti. If he succeeds in dislodging the APC and the PDP, he would incontrovertibly become a strong force in the politics of the country.
Even though there has been no visible and open campaigns and rallies by the political parties, the candidates are devising ways of reaching out to the voters and other stakeholders in the state. Series of issues have been thrown up in the campaigns including, the welfare of workers and pensioners, security, Investment drive and economic growth, social programmes among others issues have dominated the campaigns.
The talk and influence of money on the election day has also gained prominence in the political atmosphere. Many political watchers are of the opinion that the syndrome of collection of money in exchange for vote, popularly called, ‘see and buy’ might be the deciding factor on who wins the election considering the level of poverty ravaging the state. Already, stakeholders including some candidates have been campaigning against this act, calling on voters not to trade their mandates.
Another likely deciding factor in the election is the influence of the civil servants. In Ekiti, they constitute more than 50 percent of the voting population, which means they can decide who becomes the next governor. Looking at the past elections and the roles played by the workers in enthroning or rejecting parties, they possess the ace come June 18.
Similarly, the outcome of the presidential primaries of the APC is also significant to the election. The popular Abuja interest and influence will be discernible in the governorship poll if the participants are ready and willing to put behind them the likely misgivings from the presidential convention. Unless high-level reconciliation moves commence immediately, the influence of Abuja might be missing considering the ongoing in-fighting among gladiators in the APC.
The election will also set the tone for a similar poll on July 16 in Osun State. Though elections have different peculiarities, observers believe the outcome of the Ekiti poll is likely to influence the Osun election in the area of public perception. As candidates are emerging for the next year general election, the June 18 poll will open up the electoral space of what to expect in the campaigns and the contest next February.
A marked difference in the politics of the state is the fact that there is no single politician that could be regarded as calling the shots. The scope of influence of each leadership is limited to his main constituency, hence the usual synergy among the leaders to form alliances across the board. While some of the realignments and alliances have endured in a number of places, others crashed almost at the inception.
The Tinubu factor
The results of the recent APC presidential primary won by a former Lagos State governor, Bola Tinubu may have some impact on the dynamics and permutations for the Ekiti election. Not only his victory but the decision of governor Fayemi to sacrifice his presidential bid for Tinubu which shocked many people including his supporters has ultimately boosted the chances of the ruling party. Before now, members of the pro-Tinubu group South-West Agenda 2023 (SWAGA) in the state expressed their grievances with happenings in the state chapter of the APC and had pitched tent with the opposition parties especially the SDP and the ADC candidates. With the intricacies and intrigues which characterised the June 7 primary, many analysts and loyalists of Tinubu, had assumed he had a Plan B in case the outcome was not favourable to him. This notion gained prominence in the build-up to the Ekiti election, considering the influence, war chest and strength of the former Lagos governor. There were speculations that Fayemi’s aim to withdraw from the presidential race was art of the strategies ahead of Saturday’s poll, which will determine his successor. So, observers said it was no surprise that Tinubu, APC national chairman, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, as well as other APC top shots graced the grand rally held in Ado-Ekiti on Tuesday to shore up the support base for the party in Saturday’s poll. As expected for many months by his supporters and party members, Fayemi took the candidate Oyebanji to Tinubu last Sunday, where according to him, they had discussions relating to how APC will secure victory come Saturday.
Nonetheless, events in the last few weeks have raised the issue of security. Blatant acts of political intolerance has taken frightening dimensions with stakeholders wondering the real motive of those behind the incidences of political violence. But the authorities have promised heavy deployment of security personnel to stave off crisis.
Stakeholders speak
The Ekiti State Council of Elders said the next governor of the state must understand the challenges confronting the state and proffer workable solutions, saying that complaint after assuming duties would not be acceptable to the people. The secretary of the council, Niyi Ajibulu said the programmes and agenda of the candidates should be the one to improve and add value to the socio-economic development of the state. According to him, “We want someone who knows what he is coming to meet on ground. What we will expect is that the next governor should really know what he is coming to meet, so that he won’t be complaining that the situation is bad when he gets there, because the fact is, the situation has been bad. Whoever is putting himself for the top job should make his plans practicable in addressing our issues as a state. There should be wherewithal to tackle the problems on ground. We have advised our people on so many things, especially knowing the person they are voting for and his programmes for the state. You must be convinced that the person you are voting for will better our lives. He or she should have the experience.”
On the vote-buying syndrome, Ajibulu added: “Virtually, everybody condemns vote-buying. We are talking to the candidates that rather than planning to buy votes, they should convince the electorate about their plans. The voters should not mortgage their future because from experiences when they collect money to vote, things have not turned out to be good. There should not be any money inducement or sentiment.”
On his part, the Speaker of the Ekiti Youth Parliament, Toba Fatunla said, “We want someone who has developmental plans. We need someone who will engage the people and youth and ultimately change the narrative about our state. We want an Ekiti that is prosperous and not the one that will be retrogressing when other competing states are doing well and progressing in the country.
“Whosoever that is taking money on June 18 to vote is only mortgaging his or her future because the amount they will give cannot be spent for four years, it is taking money in place of development. Whoever that will collect money does not like Ekiti, does not want better governance and prosperous Ekiti. Our people should forget immediate gratification in the interest of Ekiti growth. “
An observer, Muyiwa Obayanju said the Ekiti election should not be about the parties but the candidate who possesses the requisite knowledge to change the narratives in economic development, infrastructure, education, health and other sectors of governance in the state. Obayanju said: “The coming election should not be based on the political platforms but the person who can deliver the real dividends of democracy to the people of Ekiti; not the ones they are talking about in campaigns. Obviously, there are issues in the state and the people cannot afford to miss this very important opportunity to make things better in the state. Going by happenings in the country, we need someone that can provide the needed leadership and bring the people together to have confidence in government. That N5,000 they will be giving to people on the day of election is of no value to anyone. People should not allow the politicians to buy their conscience, Ekiti people should vote on June 18 according to their mind; they should vote for someone who can do the work. If they give you, don’t take it, they can’t force you to collect. People offering money don’t have plans for you. During the Obafemi Awolowo days, they used only their manifestos to campaign and people voted for them but now our politicians don’t even disclose their manifestos ahead of the election. “