As PDP races against time to survive…

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is no longer just battling for electoral victory but for its own survival, as rival factions entrench parallel structures and make reconciliation increasingly improbable ahead of the 2027 general election. In this report, PHILIP IBITOYE examines whether the party still has a viable path to survival amid efforts by party elders to bring the warring factions together ahead of the forthcoming primaries.

It’s been nearly 18 years since the fifth National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the late Prince Vincent Ogbulafor, on December 19, 2008, declared to party faithful that the party would rule Nigeria for the next 60 years. Although the declaration may seem presumptuous now, it wasn’t the craziest thing to say in the moment. He made the statement at the height of the PDP’s power. Just the previous year, the party had won the presidential election with approximately 70 per cent of the votes cast, claimed 85 out of 109 seats in the Senate, and captured 263 out of 360 seats in the House of Representatives, all unprecedented in Nigeria’s democratic history to date. Notably, the presidential election winner, UmaruYar’Adua, admitted that the poll was flawed, but there was not any doubt that the PDP was firmly in control of the country’s politics.

But less than two decades later, the PDP is struggling for survival. It is nowhere near its dream of holding power for the next 40 years; instead, it is fighting to stay afloat the political waters. On Friday, March 13, 2026, Chairman of the party’s Board of Trustees (BOT), Adolphus Wabara, gave assurances to members and Nigerians that the party will not die. However, observers say those assurances are complicated by the reality of the PDP, whose leadership is currently broken into two factions; one led by TanimuTuraki (SAN), and the other led by Abdulrahman Mohammed, with no genuine reconciliation in sight.

Nearly two weeks since the Court of Appeal invalidated the Ibadan convention that returned Turaki as the national chairman and advised out-of-court reconciliation, the party is still scrambling to come together. However, Sunday Tribune gathered that party elders are currently in talks to save it from total collapse as the notice of elections released for the 2027 polls by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) have started counting.

A member of the PDP BoT, who spoke with Sunday Tribune on the condition of anonymity, said the party’s reconciliation team was making progress to bring both factions together as soon as possible. “I cannot tell you much right now because I’m part of the reconciliation team and our work is still ongoing, but we are making progress,” the member said.

But the Mohammed-led faction of the party, which is aligned with the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, is moving full steam ahead, holding state congresses across several states ahead of its national convention scheduled for March 29 in Abuja, with the apparent blessing of INEC. Last Tuesday, March 17, a seven-member delegation from the commission supervised the state congress that elected Peter Tongshep as the new chairman of the PDP in Plateau State. The same day, INEC also monitored the election of new party executives in congresses in Lagos, Oyo, Bayelsa  and Ebonyi States.

Although the Turaki-led faction has appealed the Court of Appeal verdict that invalidated the convention which returned its leadership to the Supreme Court, the legitimacy being enjoyed by the Mohammed-led faction has informed the decision of political analysts to question whether the latter still has enough appetite to accept reconciliation.

Can the warring PDP factions reconcile?

Since the beginning of 2025, the PDP, which prides itself as the largest political party in Africa, has been anything but the behemoth it used to be. It  has lost at least nine state governors who mostly defected to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to bolster its ranks ahead of the 2027 general election. These defections have left the PDP significantly weakened to mount a credible national challenge in the 2027 elections. With uncertainty remaining in the party and primaries expected to start in about a month, specifically April 23, those who remain in the party and have aspirations to seek office are increasingly left in limbo and may seek certainty elsewhere, thus further draining the party’s ranks.

Therefore, the question is no longer whether the PDP will appear on the 2027 ballot, because INEC may eventually recognise a faction, according to analysts, but whether it will reach a quick resolution and present a united front that is able to challenge the ruling party and win keenly contested elections.

Lagos-based political analyst, OlawaleAfolabi, told Sunday Tribune that he does not see a scenario where the PDP is able to reconcile. “The Turaki-led faction is backed by [Oyo State governor] SeyiMakinde, who has vowed that he won’t stand for a one-party rule. On the other side is Wike, who has endorsed President Tinubu for re-election, and I don’t see any way the faction he controls will allow the nomination of a credible opposition member,” he said. “So how can both factions reconcile? I don’t see.”

This view is currently shared by many observers who see both factions on a collision course.

What complicates reconciliation further is that the crisis has moved beyond mere personality clashes into a struggle over institutional control. The Mohammed-led bloc, buoyed by perceived regulatory recognition and ongoing congresses, is acting like a government in office—consolidating authority, building structures, and preparing for a national convention that could produce a fresh leadership. In contrast, the Turaki-led camp is pursuing legitimacy through the courts, banking on judicial reversal to reclaim its mandate.

In practical terms, both approaches are mutually exclusive. One faction is seeking political consolidation; the other is seeking legal restoration. The likelihood that either side would willingly concede ground is therefore slim.

There is also the question of trust or the absence of it. Years of internal disputes, dating back to the fallout from the 2022 presidential primaries, have entrenched deep suspicion among key actors. Even if a political settlement is reached, analysts warn it may amount to little more than a temporary ceasefire rather than a genuine resolution.

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Yet, despite the pessimism, there remains a narrow window for reconciliation, driven largely by necessity. The electoral calendar announced  by INEC leaves little room for prolonged infighting. Failure to submit a unified register, organise primaries, and present candidates could effectively sideline the PDP from meaningful participation in the 2027 elections.

It is this existential pressure that appears to be forcing reluctant actors back to the negotiating table. The reality confronting both factions is stark: a divided PDP risks not just electoral defeat, but political annihilation.

Still, even if reconciliation is achieved, the question remains whether it will come early enough — and whether it will be deep enough — to rebuild the party’s fractured national structure.

The fundamental question

Observers of the seemingly intractable crises rocking the PDP have asked the question, what truly underlies the endless crises? The fundamentals, as sources have said, have to do with agreement and disagreement on the manner of  the party’s approach to the 2027 polls. While a section of the party believes in having a handshake with the ruling party, the other is said to be seeking to midwife an opposition coalition that could take the electoral battle to the ruling party.

Party insiders believed that the two factions are fully aware of the issues at stake and that while the stakeholders decided to condone themselves, despite the divergent focus, especially in the aftermath of the 2023 elections, the centre could no longer hold  from mid 2025, as indications emerged that the faction with the intent to return to opposition roles was planning a major shake up. That development, according to sources, informed the winner-takes-all attitude adopted by both factions, leading to the complete breakdown in communication.

PDP elders optimistic about party’s future

Amid the uncertainty, however, leading figures within the party continue to project confidence that the PDP can weather the storm. Their optimism, while often tempered by caution, reflects a belief in the party’s historical resilience and enduring grassroots presence.

In his assessment, former Deputy National Chairman (South), Bode George, framed the crisis not as a terminal condition but as a family dispute requiring dialogue. He revealed that the party’s Board of Trustees had begun reviewing recent court judgments and was considering internal mechanisms for resolution.

“We saw it as a very civilised suggestion that we should examine the possibilities, since we are all from the same family, to come together and discuss the differences,” George said, referring to the Court of Appeal’s recommendation for an out-of-court settlement.

His position underscores a recurring theme among PDP elders—that the party’s survival depends on its ability to resolve disputes internally rather than through prolonged litigation. George also hinted at a legal pathway to peace, noting that a successful reconciliation could culminate in a consent judgment, effectively ending the dispute in court.

More fundamentally, he emphasised the broader democratic implications of the crisis. “This nation deserves to have a formidable opposition. Otherwise, you make the other party become a personalised empire for one individual, and that is not democracy,” he warned.

This argument situates the PDP’s struggle within a larger national context, suggesting that its survival is not merely a partisan concern but a democratic necessity.

Similarly, the party’s BoT chairman has struck a defiant tone in the face of mounting doubts. Declaring that “the PDP can never die,” Wabara pointed to ongoing efforts to rebuild the party’s structures, including membership registration drives and grassroots mobilisation.

While his remarks reflect confidence in the PDP’s institutional legacy, specifically its nationwide network, historical brand recognition, and capacity to reinvent itself, they also hint at an awareness that survival will require deliberate reform, particularly in addressing issues such as internal democracy and conflict management.

At the state level, party leaders are echoing similar sentiments. In Enugu, the state chairman, Steve Oruruo, on Friday, March 20, dismissed fears of disintegration and expressed confidence in the party’s resilience, even as he acknowledged the urgency of the situation.

“PDP will survive, but it must get its act together quickly to qualify to field candidates in the elections,” he said.

Perhaps the most candid assessment, came from the National Vice Chairman (South-West), Kamoru Ajisafe, who described the party as being “in the ICU.”

“The PDP is not dead… it’s in the ICU. But I’m confident that it can recover,” he told Sunday Tribune. “Its being in the ICU is man-made, and the recovery is going to be man-made… it just requires positive actions,” he said.

Ajisafe’s metaphor captures both the severity of the crisis and the possibility of recovery. It acknowledges that the party’s predicament is self-inflicted, driven by internal divisions and leadership struggles, while also suggesting that the solution lies within the party’s control.

Taken together, these perspectives reveal a leadership class that is unwilling to concede defeat, even as the challenges mount. Their optimism is rooted in the PDP’s history of surviving previous crises, including the aftermath of its historic 2015 electoral loss.

However, whether that resilience will be sufficient in the face of the current, more complex crisis remains an open question.

The Supreme Court: the final arbiter?

As the PDP navigates its uncertain path, one decisive factor looms large: the pending judgment of the Supreme Court.

The apex court’s ruling could either affirm the decisions of the lower courts, effectively consolidating the position of one faction, or overturn them, reopening the contest for control of the party.

Legal analysts are divided, although some predict that the Supreme Court may uphold the earlier judgments that invalidated the Ibadan convention. If that happens, it would further weaken the Turaki-led faction’s claim to legitimacy and strengthen the hand of its rivals.

Yet, even a definitive legal ruling may not bring closure to the crisis. Analysts note that the deeper issues — mutual distrust, competing ambitions, and structural weaknesses — cannot be resolved by judicial pronouncements alone.

For now, the PDP finds itself in a race against time, caught between legal battles, internal negotiations, and the relentless countdown to the 2027 elections. Whether it emerges from this period as a unified and competitive force, or further fragments into political irrelevance, will depend not just on court rulings, but on the willingness of its leaders to act in the collective interest of the party.

Until then, as even its own leaders admit, the PDP remains in intensive care, alive, but far from stable.