Why most northerners will prefer to vote for Tinubu in 2027 — Sani, ex-ACF general secretary

Former secretary general of the Arewa Consultative Forum ACF, Anthony Sani speaks with KUNLE ODEREMI on the insecurity in the country, renewed military cooperation between Nigeria and the United States, as well as the next general election in the country.

A recent United States report on alleged genocide against Christian in Nigeria submitted to President Trump recommended, among others, included a demand for the repeal of Sharia codes and criminal anti-blasphemy laws; review and use points of leverage to compel Fulani herdsmen to disarm, including by blocking export of beef and other cattle-related products to countries like Ivory Coast, Ghana, South Africa, and Senegal. It also requires a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Nigeria’s sectarian and communal violence, and review classifying Fulani militia groups with links to terror groups, as well as other groups conducting organised campaigns of violence that threaten the United States, as a foreign terrorist organisation. How far-reaching are the recommendations, in the light of the allegation that informed the US serious concern about the prevalent frightening security situation in Nigeria?

While I appreciate the US’s concern about the security situation in Nigeria, I am not sure the recommendations are far reaching enough. This is because each of the geopolitical zone has different types of insecurity.

For examples, North-East has Boko Haram and ISWAP to contend with while North-West zone struggles against banditry, kidnapping, Bakurawa that has link with ISIS and cattle rustling.

In the North-Central zone, the challenges are feud between herders and farmers, as well as ethno-religious conflict in Plateau state.

If you go down to South-East, the insecurity is posed by separatists led by Nnamdi Kanu of indigenous People Of Biafra (IPOB).

The South-West’s challenges posed by Chief Sunday Igboho of Yoruba Nation have been overcome substantially.

The Niger Delta region has militant activism for resource control which has also ebbed substantially for common good.

Most of the insecurity in the North are driven by economic consideration of poverty,ignorance and unemployment. They are also not religious, considering the killings transcend religious boundaries.

The recommendations  should include addressing the underlying causes of the insecurity. These include out of school children who are tomorrow’s terrorists.

The recommendations should also include addressing the dearth of enough trained,equipped and well motivated security personnel to secure the nation.

The resurgence of insurgency and banditry led to the shakeup in the nation’s security architecture and a rethink on the strategies for combating the hydra headed issues. So, how would you rationalise the renewed vigour on military cooperation by US with Nigeria,  which some critical stakeholders claim is part of a perceived move by foreign interests to compromise the sovereignty of Nigeria, that  there is no free lunch when it comes to international politics and, particularly, that US is involved in the crisis in Ukraine, Mexico and now, Iran?

America may mean well in suggestion for military cooperation between America and Nigeria. But, when one considers what President Trump is asking for in Ukraine in exchange for support and what has just happened in Venezuela,it is hard not to agree with critics who doubt the intention and sincerity of America.

All the same, it is hard for Nigeria to reject the offer of support by America military in such a dire situation. All one can say is to advise the government to be cautious lest the cooperation compromise the sovereignty of the nation.

Talking about politics, there is a raging controversy stirred by the opposition  over the new Electoral Act with opposition party leaders demanding a fresh amendment to expunge perceived boobytraps. The areas include the issue of real time transmission of election results sections, e-membership register of parties, etc. How justified are the demands of the opposition parties? How fundamental are the complaints by the opposition parties? Is there still exist  room for compromise to guarantee a more credible and, transparent general election in 2027 and how sir?

I do not see the patriotism and wisdom in the insistence by the opposition that exclusive electronic transmission of result should be mandatory. We question the intention of the opposition because they know the problems of network which is ubiquitous. We experience challenges of network in many communities and in the banks.

In order to overcome such challenges, the amended electoral act has provided for electronic transmission of result with a proviso that manual transmission be the back up,lest some polling units be short changed.

It is to be noted that were electronic transmission flawless, developed democracies or countries would use it without any hindrance. But, this is not the case precisely because electronic transmission has its own draw back.

You will recall that the opposition had its own results and server for elections of 2023 that were not known to INEC.

To what extent is Nigeria on the verge of a one-party state as key players in other parties have populated the ruling APC, with more than 30 out of 36 state governors now in the party?  Is the emerging scenario not fearful that the fundamental ideals of political pluralism is already encumbered in Nigeria? How do you mean?

Somehow I believe if Nigerians truly make judicious use of their democratic rights and ensure that their votes count, there would be no one party state.

Notwithstanding the semblance of a one-party structure, there is the pervasive feeling that the North is largely not favourably disposed to President Bola Tinubu, securing a second term as president, due to the spiral effects of his reform agenda and insinuations that the divide has been marginalised in the scheme of things, including ‘Grade A’ appointments. How serious are these narratives in the northern political and business circle and why? How altruistic are those allegations about disequilibrium in appointments in relation to federal character principle and competence in leadership recruitment by the Tinubu administration? What are some of such instances of skewed appointments?

There have been simmering discontent in the North against the poor management of diversity by the administration. The North believes the distribution of access to national resources by way of appointments, projects and contracts have not been fair to the North.

Such concerns caused President Bola Tinubu to ask political appointees from the North to go and explain to the Northern leaders with a view to dispelling any misconceptions.

This happened last year or so, and helped to hose down the flame substantially.

I believe when the appointees from the North reconvene with Northern leaders, it would put the agitations to rest.

You may wish to note that as long as the politics of identity called zoning is still zeitgeist in the polity and the South wants to finish its eight years tenure and the North wants the president in 2031,President Bola Tinubu is about the only southerner, who cannot govern beyond 2031. Any other southerner can govern beyond 2031. That explains why a majority of northerners will prefer to vote for President Bola Tinubu.

The motion to set up State Police seems to be gathering momentum under the new Inspector General of Police, with the setting up of an eight-man committee to prepare the framework within weeks. Can Nigerians begin to hope for the dawn of a new era, given the overwhelming security challenges that placed the country on the tethers over the years and how sir as the country marches towards another election year?

I have said it many times that if the state police do not have what it takes to secure the nation reminiscent of what happens to the Nigerian police, state police cannot be the magic wand.

Furthermore, state governors will abuse state police in the manner they have abused state electoral commissions and killed democracy at the local government level. In states which are diverse, state police can be part of the problem instead of the solution in the event of conflict.

Opposition parties have accused the authorities of political witch hunt as some of their leaders are facing grave allegations of gross abuse of office, money laundering and other forms of corruption and impunity. Some of them have either been quizzed or in the custody of anti-graft agencies over sundry charges bothering on corruption while holding…

When those in the opposition cry out that the fight against corruption is selective, I begin to wonder the wisdom. I do not believe opposition people who have no case to answer need to fear.