ADC, PDP in limbo: Stakeholders assess prospects of opposition parties ahead of Supreme Court ruling

Last Wednesday, April 22, 2026, the Supreme Court reserved judgment in the appeals brought by the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and a faction of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) on their separate internal crises threatening their places on the 2027 general election ballots. The uncertainty has raised broader concerns about the state of opposition politics and the prospects for a competitive election in 2027. Compounding these anxieties is the controversy surrounding the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Joash Amupitan, over an alleged social media post sympathetic to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), and the implications for public trust in the electoral process. Amid these developments, PHILIP IBITOYE engaged a cross-section of stakeholders, including political observers and scientists, on their views and brought excerpts:

ADC, PDP, others have a responsibility to put their own houses in order — Bewaji

Wunmi Bewaji is a legal practitioner and former Minority Leader of the House of Representatives.

ACCORDING to INEC’s 2027 general election calendar, party primaries started on Thursday, April 23, and will run until May 30, 2026. Also, the register of party members is expected to be submitted to the commission by May 10 at the latest to be able to conduct primaries. With major opposition parties such as ADC and PDP still battling legal issues, where do you see opposition politics at the end of May?

Well, it’s still possible, I mean, there is still plenty of time for them to put their houses in order. It’s on them, on the leaders of the parties, because if you have cases in court, I don’t think that, we should put the blame on the judiciary whether or not the judiciary will be able to deliver judgment or decisions within that time. What, what stops the leaders of those, of the various factions from coming together and resolving whatever differences that they have? If they are planning to rule the entire country and they are not able to put their house in order and prepare themselves for election so that they can meet up with the deadline, then it means that they are not qualified to govern Nigeria because I think that the best option is for all the factions to come together and sort out their issues. I mean, you belong to the same party, for God’s sake. So what is stopping them from coming together and then making concessions? I mean, I think that’s a faster route. All of them can meet at one venue and then resolve whatever differences they have. If they have differences that they cannot resolve at this moment and they will be waiting for the court to resolve it for them, then it tells on their inability to be able to rule the entire country.

In view of that, do you share the concerns of some observers who say that Nigeria may end up not having a viable opposition candidate to face President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general election with how things are going?

I don’t. As of today, we have 19 political parties in Nigeria. So, and I think each of those 19 political parties are well-qualified as far as the law is concerned to contest. When we talk about a viable opposition platform, it does not have to be platforms where you have popular politicians or politicians who have held office before. You could have political parties where their leaders are not that well known, but yet if they prepare themselves very well, they put forward their policies and programmes which could be attractive to Nigerians, then Nigerians can vote for them. So, my own definition of a viable opposition is not based on somebody who has been a former governor or a former minister or former this, former that. No, that’s not the definition of viable. Viable opposition politicking should be defined by policies and programmes, not just by personality. If we shift away from politics of personality to politics of issues: what are the issues that they are battling? What alternative programmes are they proposing to the electorate that will make them electable? That’s what we should be talking about.

Lastly, the INEC Chairman, Joash Amupitan, has been in the eye of the storm in recent weeks about an alleged post on X (formerly known as Twitter). He has denied the accusations and INEC has released the results of a forensic analysis that concluded that the account supposedly owned by the chairman was not his. Do you think that there are valid concerns surrounding the INEC chairman regarding partiality ahead of the 2027 general election?

I don’t think so. The INEC chairman is, as you well know, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria. He’s a lawyer and he’s a man of integrity. So, I do think a lot of noise is being made by people who don’t have policies and programmes that they want to propose to the Nigerian public and they are just trying to make excuses for their own failures. People have forgotten, Professor Jega, who was a former INEC chairman, at the time he was appointed was actually a card-carrying member of the PRP (People’s Redemption Party) and nobody said anything at that time. So why is it at the time of Amupitan that people are making so much noise? You know, this is so annoying. So, I don’t think there’s anything in that. The accusation is false, even from the beginning. And I think that some people are just looking for excuses for their own failures.

Crises in opposition parties are products of state capture — Adejumo

Mogaji Gboyega Adejumo is a chieftain and former National Publicity Secretary of the pan-Yoruba socio-political organisation, Afenifere. He is also the South-West Chairman of The Patriots which is seeking a new constitution for Nigeria.

INEC has set a deadline of May 10 for political parties to submit their register of members, but major opposition parties such as the PDP and the ADC still have cases before the Supreme Court with no final verdict. With weeks to go before the deadline, what are the stakes for the opposition parties in your view?

I should think that every Nigerian should be very worried now. The signs are very ominous and the signs are bad. Now, it looks as if what some of us have been saying, that what’s going on in Nigeria is a total state capture, it is “L’État, c’est moi” (“I am the state”). I am Nigeria, nobody can do anything, nobody can say anything, nobody can oppose me, and that is exactly what is playing out. Now, particularly regarding democracy, democracy should be something that should allow each and every one the opportunity, the liberty as well as the freedom to belong, to be able to express ourselves and to be part of the process on which governance is going to be based, and to be able to choose our representatives. But now, it appears to be a one-party state and democracy seems to have left the shores of Nigeria.

Look at the current situation. All the major parties that may pose a threat to the ruling party are all in court. And they are in court because, seemingly, the parties themselves are at fault. It is about the instigation of everyone that is connected with this government, with this APC, with this presidency, and that is what is affecting each and every party. For everyone to find out what is going on, you will trace everything back to either Wike or the judiciary that allegedly sang ‘on your mandate we shall stand’. The same thing that is going on with the PDP is the same thing going on with the ADC. How can a sitting minister of the ruling party, that is Nyesom Wike (Minister of the Federal Capital Territory), be the one to determine the fate of the opposition political party that had ruled this country for 16 years? The same thing is going on with the ADC. The PDP and the ADC that seemingly appear as if they are the only political parties that can stand up to the ruling party are being disorganised, disoriented, and given the most difficult task and it’s all about the capture, the state capture by the present administration of Ahmed Bola Tinubu.

But APC leaders have vehemently rejected that insinuation, saying that these opposition parties are the cause of their own issues because these are internal party tussles. The question from that circle is that, if these opposition parties cannot manage their own internal affairs, how can they be expected to govern Nigeria effectively and confront the many challenges facing the country?

What is there to manage when money is involved? Have you ever found a witch with blood on her mouth? Our people say, “The witch cried yesterday, the child died today. Who is it that would not know it is the witch who cried that killed the child?” We all know what is going on, okay? Why is Wike doing all he’s doing in the PDP? And even at the PDP convention, he was still singing the praises of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC. So what other proof do we want to have? Look, you are saying that people in the opposition cannot manage their affairs. That is not true. How was the APC formed? The APC was the greatest beneficiary of all that was wrong in Nigerian politics. Yes, they waited, they manufactured the elements that caused five governors of the PDP to break away, and they didn’t just break away. It was at the instigation of the people who were forming the APC. So, the same thing that happened is happening now. They have even factionalised APGA. So, all of what you are seeing is about people with their selfish interests who are ruling Nigeria. This is not about us. They don’t care about us. They don’t want to know whether we exist. It’s all about them.

There are currently questions around the INEC Chairman, Joash Amupitan, on whether he operated an X account that was sympathetic to the ruling APC. Do you see questions of partiality surrounding the INEC Chairman as a problem ahead of the general election?

Let me explain this thing the way it is. When Obasanjo was there, who was the INEC Chairman? There was no Yoruba man as INEC Chairman when Obasanjo was there. He had Abel Guobadia and Maurice Iwu. When Yar’Adua was there, who was the INEC Chairman? Iwu. When Jonathan came, who was the INEC Chairman? It was Attahiru Jega. Good. Now, you have seen the trajectory. You have seen the trajectory. Now Tinubu is there, there is Amupitan. Don’t kid yourself about Amupitan of Kogi. The same Amupitan of Kogi is the same as Amupitan of Osun. So, whatever it is, you are seeing the display of naked power. So, if anybody is expecting the INEC Chairman to be liberal, or to be neutral, or to be far removed from what is going on in this state capture business, then the person is only kidding himself. It’s getting to that level now that somebody can say, “I own the state,” l’état c’est moi. So, forget about any insinuation that all of these things are by happenstance. No, it is by great design. Nothing here is happenstance. Everything is designed. And the results are already foretold.

INEC must convince Nigerians of being impartial — Fatima Aliu

Dr Fatima Aliu is a senior lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the University of Ilorin (UNILORIN)

PARTIES such as the ADC and a faction of the PDP are currently running against time to meet the INEC’s deadlines for the primaries. What is your read on the fate that awaits these parties as they wait on the Supreme Court verdict?

The timeline set by INEC with party primaries running from April 23 to May 30, 2026, places significant pressure on opposition parties in Nigeria to resolve their internal crises. Given that major opposition parties such as the PDP and the ADC are still dealing with legal and leadership disputes, the outlook for opposition politics by the end of May appears uncertain. The Supreme Court verdict may come late in the process, potentially leading to last-minute changes or prolonged uncertainties even after primaries are concluded. One likely outcome is increased fragmentation within these parties. Ongoing legal battles and factional disagreements could result in parallel leadership structures or disputed primaries. In such situations, different factions may organise separate primaries, leading to confusion over legitimate candidates and weakening party cohesion. This lack of unity will undermine the credibility and effectiveness of opposition parties. Additionally, if the disputes are resolved late, there may be limited time to properly coordinate the selection process.

In comparison, the ruling party has maintained a more stable and organised approach during this period. While opposition parties are preoccupied with internal conflicts, the ruling party is strengthening its campaign and consolidating support. This imbalance puts the opposition at a strategic disadvantage. A more optimistic scenario is still possible if opposition leaders reach last-minute agreements and resolve their disputes out of court. This could allow them to conduct credible primaries and present a unified front ahead of the elections. Overall, by the end of May, I see the opposition parties either partially stabilised or significantly fragmented, depending on how quickly and effectively these internal challenges are addressed.

Do you share concerns that the country may end up not having a viable opposition candidate to face the president in the 2027 elections?

There is a reasonable basis for that concern, but it is not a foregone conclusion. The current internal disputes within ADC and PDP, combined with tight timelines set by INEC, could weaken their ability to produce a strong, unified candidate. However, Nigerian politics has a history of late realignments, mergers, and strategic alliances, meaning a viable opposition candidate could still emerge before the 2027 elections, especially in the ADC. Ultimately, the likelihood depends on how quickly opposition actors resolve internal conflicts and whether they can consolidate around a credible figure with nationwide support.

In the context of the general election, do you see questions of partiality surrounding the INEC chairman as a problem ahead of the general election?

Concerns about partiality surrounding the INEC chairman could become a significant issue ahead of the general election, particularly in a politically polarised environment. Even the perception of bias, whether proven or not, can undermine public trust in the electoral process, weaken confidence in outcomes, and provide grounds for post-election disputes. In a context where opposition parties are already dealing with internal challenges, any doubts about the neutrality of the electoral umpire may further heighten tensions and skepticism among voters. However, the overall impact will depend on INEC’s ability to demonstrate transparency, consistency in decision-making, and adherence to electoral laws throughout the process. It’s up to the commission to demonstrate that it can be trusted in the coming months.

Process of appointing INEC chair systematically faulty — Mubarak Jamiu

Mubarak Sulaiman Jamiu is a Political Science lecturer at the Kwara State University (KWASU), Malete, Kwara State.

AS the ADC and PDP wait on the Supreme Court to deliver its verdict, do you still see them having the chance of producing a viable presidential candidate for the 2027 elections?

You see, one thing I used to tell people is that the price of not understanding politics is being subjected to others and to our own circumstances. The issue of readiness, especially in the ADC as it stands now, is at stake, first of all. Secondly, right from the onset, I was privileged to be on TV, where I spoke at length regarding the chances of the ADC producing someone who will be viable enough to stand the test of time in the 2027 general election. However, the chances of them producing such a candidate are very slim. They are in a dilemma of time and crisis, even within the party—the internal crisis alone would almost deprive them of the ability to produce a candidate who can viably challenge the current president in 2027. Now, the question is: even if they are able to produce someone, who would that be? Would that person be able to win the hearts of Nigerians? Would that person be capable of standing the test of time? Would that person be able to convince Nigerians that they can offer something different from what the current administration is doing, or do something better? These are the questions.

There is one thing that is central: in politics, we agree to disagree, and we disagree to agree. To produce someone who will be a viable candidate, this is a time for them to test their viability. So, even if it is not their time to shine, it is a time for them to prepare the ground—not just for 2027, but for subsequent elections. I think you get the point. So that is my take on the ADC.

Within the context of the Supreme Court’s judgment, do you see the parties’ internal crises affecting their chances of even being on the ballot?

You know, politics is very funny. You might say now that it is impossible for them to produce a viable candidate, and tomorrow they might come up with someone viable, even though the chances are slim. But this is a time for them to test their readiness. They will learn from their mistakes, because I do not see them making anything significant out of the 2027 general election.

When you say that 2027 is almost gone for the ADC and the PDP, what does that portend for competitive democracy in Nigeria?

Well, in analysing the state of Nigerian democracy today, I must confess that we are operating a partial democracy, not a full democracy. One of the central ideas of democracy is equality and freedom. When you are talking about representation, where is the equality? Where is the freedom of representation? I think you get the point. A lot of people will argue today that they are in the APC not because they want to be, but because they have to be. A lot of politicians are decamping today, not necessarily out of choice, but out of necessity for survival, because that is the only party they see as having the enabling environment to thrive in Nigerian politics. So, when it comes to the central ideas of democracy in Nigeria today—equality and freedom—it is nothing to write home about.

In the last general election, Nigeria recorded less than 27 per cent turnout, which was the worst since 1999. And now the current INEC Chairman, Joash Amupitan, has been embroiled in controversy over an alleged post he made in support of the APC. How do you think questions like this—given that several voters on social media are now questioning his neutrality—could affect voter apathy or turnout in 2027?

Well, it is very unfortunate that our voting system is deeply flawed. A lot of people have no confidence in it at all. The system has failed in the past, and people are not seeing anything better coming in the next general election. Regarding the INEC chairman, would you want to go against someone who put you in office—someone capable of removing you at any time? Would you want to go against the ideology and vision of such a person? I think you get the point. This is one of the challenges Nigerians are facing today. When you are talking about INEC itself, many see it as a puppet of the present government. So, in terms of confidence, it is almost non-existent for many Nigerians.

Are you saying the process of appointing INEC chairmen is systematically faulty?

Yes, it is a systemic problem. The way and manner in which people are selected for that office is not based on principle or professionalism; it is driven by interests. Anyone who will not serve the interests of the current administration is unlikely to be appointed. This is an office that is supposed to be independent and serve no interest other than that of Nigerians.

Internal party conflicts are not a reflection of capacity to govern — Olawale Afolabi 

Olawale Afolabi is a Lagos-based political scientist.

According to the INEC calendar, party primaries started yesterday, April 23, and will run until May 30, 2026. Also, the register of party members is expected to be submitted to INEC by May 10 at the latest to be able to conduct primaries. With the Supreme Court judgement for the PDP and ADC disputes hanging in the balance, what are the stakes for competitive democracy?

You see, when you’re looking at Nigeria’s democracy, it would be very difficult to call it a democracy. The fault is not of the party. Party politics is one of the hallmarks of democracy and the judiciary, the institution that is supposed to be the hope of the common man, knowing the importance of political parties in Nigeria’s democracy, ought to dispense justice at the right time. But it seems in collusion with the incumbent, the ruling party, they are just delaying unnecessarily, and that is threatening democracy in its competitive nature in the country. So, it’s hard. But then, it is the reality, and what’s the way out? Until Nigerians wake up in their numbers and fight for themselves, not waiting for any political party to rescue them, that’s only when there can be a way out because from all indications, the present government, the ruling party, is not ready to relinquish power, and they don’t mind going to any length to do that.

Beyond the immediate disputes, does this episode suggest that opposition parties have failed to institutionalise internal conflict-resolution mechanisms?

See, any internal conflict resolution mechanisms put in place can work only when those involved want to hearken to them. If they don’t want to hearken to them, you can’t force it on them, especially when there is the court. And like you’ve seen, while the constitution does not allow the courts to interfere in intra-party conflict, you would see that, like they would say, many Nigerian politicians, knowing how in quote ‘useless’ the judiciary has been, will still go ahead to approach the court. The court, in its wisdom, ought to strike out such a frivolous suit, but it will be sad to know that the court will still welcome it. So, knowing that there are loopholes like that, some persons are just hell-bent on destroying the party and not necessarily because maybe there is no internal mechanism to resolve the issue. So you can always find sponsorship, element of sponsorship, to cause internal issues. But can the opposition parties do better? Yes, they can, but it still boils down to those that they want to use it for, if they subscribe to it.

How might that weakness shape their competitiveness in 2027? Some have questioned how they could effectively govern if they cannot even resolve their own internal issues.

The competitiveness, truly it would be affected, but then, like I mentioned before, it goes beyond the party. Does it say they would not be able to govern? That’s a lie. The party in power, how many internal conflicts do they have? Are they able to govern? Are they governing properly? Which shows you that the leadership mainly decides how governance would be. We have a rubber-stamp Senate. Why are we having a rubber-stamp Senate? Because the leadership is in bed with the executive. Why are you having a judiciary that we don’t know what they are doing? Because the judiciary is in bed with the executive. So, at times, conflict is even needed, which shows that to a reasonable extent, there is no pushover; one person is able to maintain a stand as against the other. But if they are all lying in the same direction, what this one says, no antagonism, no resistance, then the country suffers for it. So I wouldn’t use that as a yardstick to measure governance, but it can be done better and it should be done better so that while differences exist, there would be coordination and cohesion.

The INEC chairman, Joash Amupitan, has been in the eye of the storm in recent weeks with questions swirling around his neutrality. How do you think these questions could impact voter confidence in the 2027 general election?

You see, you don’t have an impartial electoral umpire. Many already see Amupitan as highly compromised. Involvement in how the opposition parties run their affairs, connection to the president during the last election, he appears non-partisan and very much partisan. But the problem still comes from the procedure, the process of getting who becomes the INEC Chairman. It should be independently done. I cannot be contesting in an election and I own the power to determine who will conduct the election that I will be participating in. Humanly, I would want to get someone who would be ready to listen to me. That’s human nature, realistically. While personally, I don’t like meddling in affairs of something, I like things being done transparently, but not all humans would do that. So would it impact voters’ confidence? It is already impacting it. But the only good thing that I have been able to pick in the whole issue is people are fighting back, and I think that is a positive. Trying to ensure that whatever it is they are doing, they push back, they make the world know that they are aware of his bias and they are trying as much as possible to push the fight back to INEC, back to the ruling party. And if that can be sustained till weeks, maybe a week or two to the election, rather than demoralise the voters, it would have increased morale and they would be gingered to stay put, watch over their votes till they are counted and till they count. So, I see positivity from the whole thing.

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