2027 presidency: The weakness of the opposition

By Sola Ajisafe

THERE is no doubt that the political atmosphere in Nigeria is currently at a high stake, despite the 2027 election still being about two years away. The reason is the butterfly and domino effect of Nigeria’s socio-political situation. Make no mistake; it will be high drama, yet a lot may not really change in the country’s political spectrum at the end of the day. To give further evidence of the rumblings, two events will ultimately affect the political calculation of 2027. One, the death of former President Muhammadu Buhari, and the resignation of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar from the PDP. These two issues will have political impacts as we move forward. The question this piece will try to answer is related to the morality, necessity, and practicality of the opposition, or more particularly, the opposition’s ability to upstage President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, in the next election. No one needs to be told that the PDP has suffered internal hemorrhage for a very long time, causing it to gasp for breath. The possibility of its survival was dependent on how much the caregivers or those charged with taking care of it could continue to maintain it on an oxygen-induced life support. Unfortunately, the consultants charged with providing the necessary medical support had become uncommitted, self-serving, and compromised. The coalition is not any better. These individuals, who have now found their way into the ADC, pride themselves on coming to rescue Nigeria. It is led by Atiku Abubakar, a former Vice President of Nigeria who is a serial contender for the presidency since 1993.

There is Peter Obi, another serial contender and serial defector like Atiku. Nasir El-Rufai is a man who has occupied one political office or the other since 1999. His loyalty is based on the position he is offered in any political party or association. Under the Obasanjo presidency, he was Director General of the Bureau of Public Enterprises. He is a former minister, and two-term governor of Kaduna State. Also involved in the leadership of the coalition is Rotimi Amaechi, whose only known contribution to the Nigerian project is being in political office. Since 1999, he was Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly for eight years, Governor of Rivers State for eight years, Minister for Transport under President Buhari for almost eight years, and Chairman of the Speakers Forum of Nigeria and Governors Forum. There are other lesser coalitionists masquerading as rescuers whose lives in public space speak of unenviable achievements that do not qualify them for the least office in the land. Contextually, an illogical theme is a task or situation that defies logical reasoning or sound judgment. When we put together all these people, starting with Atiku Abubakar, from his presence in the Nigerian Customs Service to his political life as Vice President, and the tasks given to him to handle very sensitive national assignments, none have shown him as a man of capacity that can rescue the Nigerian nation.

If Peter Obi, El-Rufai, and Amaechi had a combined tenure of 24 years and none of their states of Anambra, Rivers, and Kaduna could be considered good enough to have given their inhabitants the best in anything, how can we trust them with our future? To return to them under these circumstances is going back to Egypt. This leads to the incongruity in their quest to return to political prominence to rescue Nigeria. The inconsistency and mismatch in their political trajectory or their contradictory ideological posturing and mental capacity make their quest unachievable and unrealizable. Let me use Atiku Abubakar as an example. He was the one who head-hunted El-Rufai as the DG of BPE, which was placed under Atiku by President Obasanjo. At the end of the day, it ended up as a whole mess. This was pointedly displayed by El-Rufai in his book “Accidental Public Servant.” El-Rufai himself was served the same breakfast by President Obasanjo in his book My Watch, where he described El-Rufai as a disloyal and lying machine. It is a fact that the connecting rod between these elements is not their love for Nigeria or the capacity to do better than the current occupants. They are fired by loss of power, status, and a sustained hatred for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

I venture to state without mincing words that it would be impossible for this group of people to take the presidency from Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu under whatever coalition or banner. The reasons are too numerous and totally apparent. One, many of them are driven by personal ambition and the desire to become the President at all costs, rather than the ability, capability, and discipline of a potential President of Nigeria. For instance, Atiku’s continued search for the presidency has an obsession. His inability to have a strong political structure that could make him win an election is legendary. He has become a nomadic politician over the years, seeking the best way to get into Aso Rock without setting the right building blocks. For the rest of the coalitionists, they are driven by their overrated assumption of their political value rather than what they actually measure on the political scale. For instance, the only effect Rotimi Amaechi could lay claim to outside his Rivers State is his leadership of the Nigerian Speakers Forum and the Governors Forum. These are his main planks for leadership at the national level. His being a minister added nothing to his national appeal in terms of building bridges.

In a larger sense, one could effectively see that most of those involved in the opposition or coalition currently in Nigeria have different reasons for ganging up against the Tinubu government. Many are angry because they have not found a place in the government, some are habitual political nomads always looking for a place to excite themselves or exercise their political rights. The opposition’s message is not deep enough and is not resonating with the people. It could have been better if there were new faces to lead this challenge. As it stands, the coalition will remain a political dead wood and a group of Aggrieved Delusioned Collisionists (ADC). As far as I can see, 2027 would be filled with the usual hullabaloo and razzle-dazzle of political activities, but at the end, the ultimate outcome would be a total decimation of the opposition at the polls and a continuation of the Asiwaju presidency. The reason is very simple: aside from the brighter optics in the political horizon, the “centre cannot hold” for the Nigerian opposition parties to make any difference in the 2027 Presidential election.

•Ajisafe, a lawyer, journalist and farmer, writes in from Akure.

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