Barely two years to the 2027 presidential elections, the political firmament is already getting charged up, and politicians are already engaged in their usual business of permutations. There is a lot of alignment, realignment, concessions, defections and alliances going on behind the political scene.
Close watchers of political events in the country are quick to conclude that the development cannot be unconnected with the crisis that is rocking major opposition parties and even the ruling party.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), regarded as the main opposition party, having come second in the last presidential election according to the electoral umpire’s records, has been enmeshed in a potpourri of crises. It has been from one crisis to another, and it seems there is no end in sight.
First, the problem started with the G-5 PDP governors led by the then Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, insisting that the party’s presidential ticket should be zoned to the South. In fact, the group specifically told the party that since Atiku Abubakar who is from the North has refused to allow the South have the presidential ticket, and eventually emerged as the party’s presidential flag-bearer, that the then party’s national chairman, Iyorcha Ayu, should step down for a Southerner to take over the chairmanship of the party. Their argument then was that the North cannot hold on to the party’s presidential ticket and chairmanship, leaving the South with nothing.
However, Atiku’s camp was of the view that since the election was around the corner, Ayu should be allowed to stay till after the election before stepping aside. This pitched the two camps against each other, with Wike’s camp openly saying they would work against the party in the presidential election. One of the negative outcomes of that crisis, according to some analysts, was the defeat of the party in the last presidential election.
However, since the party lost the election, the struggle over the control of the party has been raging, with Wike already serving in the All Progress Congress, APC-led Federal Government as a Minister but still a strong member of the party, pulling strings from behind.
There are insinuations in some quarters that Wike is being used by the ruling APC to weaken the PDP ahead of 2027. Those who hold this view are quick to point to the lingering crisis in Rivers State, where Wike and Governor Siminalayi Fubara have been embroiled in power tussle. “Wike is being used by the APC-led Federal Government to destroy the PDP, no doubt about that. Look at what is happening in Rivers State; the governor has been reduced to nothing, all thanks to Wike backed up by the Federal Government. How can the Supreme Court rule that the 27 lawmakers loyal to Wike, who announced their defection from the PDP to the APC in the open, never defected? How can anyone describe that? It tells you that a power greater than Fubara is at work and the intention of that power is to continue causing crisis in the party until the 2027 election has come,” a concerned PDP chieftain lamented.
Apart from the crisis in Rivers PDP, there is also a raging crisis about the authentic national secretary of the party. Both Senator Sam Anyawu and and Sunday Ude Okoye are laying claims to the position.
There is also crisis in Bayelsa PDP and all these pockets of crises have litigation accompanying them all over the country.
Away from the PDP, the Labour Party (LP) is also engulfed in a leadership crisis, a development that has forced some national and state lawmakers elected on the platform to defect to other parties.
At the party’s National Executive Council (NEC) meeting on September 4, 2024, the party constituted a Caretaker Committee and appointed Senator Nenedi Usman, a former minister, to head the Committee.
With the caretaker committee in place, the national chairman, who was by this development rendered useless, Julius Abure, went to court to challenge the party’s decision. After the legal tussle that followed, Abure’s leadership was legalised by the court, and Usman’s committee declared illegal and unconstitutional, setting the stage for a long leadership crisis in the party.
However, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), which came fourth in the last presidential election, is not faring any better. The Founder of the party, Boniface Aniebonam, has been fighting to reclaim his position as the founder of the party from the party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, whom he accused of hijacking the party that he just joined in 2022.
Analysts have said that the crisis rocking the party has produced three different factions. One faction is loyal to Kwankwaso, one is loyal to Aniebonam and the third group is loyal to the Kano State Governor, Abba Yusuf.
Many believe that these crises in the PDP, LP and NNPP are being engineered and sustained by the ruling APC. Those on this side of the divide believe that with the opposition in disarray ahead of the 2027 election, the presidential election would be a walkover for the APC.
But, the ruling party is also having its own share of the internal crisis. Although it may not be pronounced, it is there, analysts agreed.
There appears to be strong discontent among the APC chieftains in the North, particularly those who felt they contributed to the electoral victory of the current President, Bola Tinubu. One of those chieftains is the former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, who is openly expressing his frustration and anger with the current Federal Government.
Observers are of the view that the North is not happy with the current APC-led Federal Government under President Tinubu. They believe that the government has not been fair to them in the distribution of appointments and infrastructure.
It is also believed that President Tinubu is equally aware of the crack among the ranks of his supporters from the North and is surreptitiously working to assuage their anger and frustration.
However, those who are conversant with the way politics is played in the North are saying that it would be very difficult for President Tinubu to receive from the North in 2027 the kind of massive support he got from there in 2023. If that happens to hold any water, then it will be a long night for the ruling party in 2027.
Added to the growing discontent in the North is the crisis rocking the party in President Tinubu’s home state, Lagos. The leadership tussle in the Lagos State House of Assembly has sharply divided members of the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), the apex unofficial decision-making body in the state. The impeachment of the Speaker, MUdashiru Obasa on January 13, 2025 and the election of Mojisola Meranda as replacement threw the House into crisis. After several meetings with the President, the GAC members and the state lawmakers, Meranda was forced to resign, making way for Obasa’s come-back.
As it stands today in Lagos, analysts are of the view that the peace that exists is cosmetic and ephemeral as 36 out of 40 members of the Assembly who earlier impeached Obasa are still insisting that he should voluntarily resign to make way for an entirely new person to lead the House.
It is believed that if not properly handled, the implosion in the ruling party may likely start from the President’s home state.
However, in all of this, one party that may stand to gain from the situation is the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
The party is gradually becoming the beautiful bride as notable names are embracing it. Even President Tinubu, before the 2023 APC primaries, was rumoured to have interest in the party in the event that he was denied the APC ticket then.
The party appears to be the only pronounced national party devoid of rancour, bickering and defection at the moment. It is not surprising, therefore, why some members of the two largest parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), have turned the party as second address.
Only recently, former governor of Kaduna State Mallam El- Rufai was sighted having with Gabam in a closed-door meeting.
Some notable top members of the PDP have been hobnobbing with the party hierarchy in recent times.
The trio of Olu Agunloye, the secretary; Shehu Musa Gabam, the chairman; and particularly Wole Adebayo, its presidential candidate in the 2023 general election, have been holding the party tight to the admiration of its members and the larger audience in the society.
For the past two years, the party appears to have been intact, building bridges across the six geopolitical zones of the country, penetrating slowly though, into the nooks and crannies of the country.
Gabam and his presidential candidate have become somewhat inseparable such that they are together at functions and where they are at different places, their minds and utterances are usually the same.
The projection coming out of the SDP is worthy of emulation.
And the projection has been consistent with its core message or philosophy of justice for everybody, particularly its amplified message of its Chapter 2 of the constitution, getting a candidate that has character, competence and capacity, irrespective of the region, tribe or religion. The cohesion within its fold is something that baffles many observers.
Its showings in state elections so far have been quite impressive.
Its candidate in the Ekiti State governorship election, Chief Segun Oni, came a close second to the eventual winner, Biodun Oyebanji.
It was also impressive in the Kogi State governorship election, against all odds, where Murtala Ajaka beat the established PDP to the second position.
Currently, it has about four members in the national assembly, one in the senate and three in the lower chambers.
Close watchers of political development are predicting that the party could spring up surprises in 2027. “It has no baggage among its members, unlike other parties, its prospects for 2027 is very bright,” volunteered a public affairs commentator and lawyer, C.I Nnamani.
Nnamani is of the view that peace and stability in the SDP for over two years now would not have been possible without the untiring work of people like the party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 general election, Prince Adewole Adebayo.
“This is where the political dexterity and sagacity of Adebayo is clearly displayed. If you watch him, you will notice that he has been networking, meeting people of various religions, ethnicity and party affiliation, forming alliances, and preaching the message of good governance which only a person with character, competence and capacity can deliver.
“At the moment, he is arguably the only politician who has no baggage. I stand to be corrected, if there is any, it would be nice to look through. He is clean by all parameters. He is young, which is needed but lacking in our leadership structure. He is cerebral. He is knowledgeable. He knows something about everything. I am not surprised that the former House of Representatives, Usman Bugaje, endorses his candidacy. If the party features him again as its flag-bearer in 2027, there is every possibility that Nigerians may queue behind; that’s my personal belief,” he stated
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