Group Politics Editor, KUNLE ODEREMI examines the underlying factors that will dictate rotation in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the main opposition party ahead of the 2023 general elections in the country.
MAJOR indices so far point to the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) zoning its 2023 presidential ticket to the northern axis of the country. This reality, many observers say, contrasts sharply with the opinion expressed by a former legal adviser of the PDP, Mark Jacob and the trajectory of the party formed in 1998. He contended that the feeling among members is that the ticket should be zoned to the South.
Other potent voices within the party such as a former Minister of Police Affairs and Board of Trustees (BoT) member of the party, Adamu Maina Waziri, however, have vehemently adduced reasons PDP should pick its candidate from the North for the 2023 poll. He finds an ally in a media guru and major player in the party, Raymond Dokpesi, as the view is in tandem with the spirit of the shared value in PDP and mood of the nation regarding the power equation since the inception of civil rule in May 1999 in the country.
According to Waziri, “As far as the PDP is concerned, the presidency should return to the North because the successor to President Jonathan in 2011 should have been a northern candidate, not Jonathan. That is the understanding in the PDP and that is what I subscribe to. We cannot enforce a system on APC neither can the APC enforce a system on PDP. We should have certain salient points in the PDP, just like they will have in the APC.”
On his part, Dokpesi believes that based on the trend and path charted for itself by PDP via power rotation since 1999. “In APC, President Muhammadu Buhari has done eight years, so it is imperative for APC to cede the presidency to the South. In the case of PDP, let us look at it honestly: former President Olusegun Obasanjo from the South-West did eight years; Goodluck Jonathan from the South-South also did six years. That made a total of 14 years. On the other hand, Umaru Yar’Adua from the North did three years, so there is an imbalance of 11 years.
“If in 2019, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar had not been rigged out of that election, he would have come back in 2023 to say that he wants to do a second term. And would anybody have stood in his way? No, so, for the PDP, the presidential candidate must come from the North in 2023. People should exercise patience because it will still come back to the South,” Dokpesi said.
He also acquiesced to the advocacy on age limit, stating: “We are all Nigerians and there is no need for us to keep deceiving ourselves at this point in time. At the age of 70 and with my experience in organising campaigns in this country, I can tell you that unless there is a candidate from the North, in my own considered opinion, the PDP will not stand a chance of winning the election,” he said.
These factors, inextricably, signpost that the presidential candidacy of the PDP will most likely go to the North. A cursory look at the agitations for sanctity of the principle of power rotation between the North and the South affirmed the projection. PDP’s constitution underscores the policy, which the party has sustained, and how attempts to undermine and disregard the policy threw spanner into the works of the party.
Another factor that underpins the projection of the presidential slot under the party going to the North is the quest by majority of the leading gladiators of the party in the South that the post of national chairman be zoned to the South. The quest is most pronounced in the South-West which has consistently claimed to have been shortchanged in the power calculus, especially concerning the exalted position of national chairman, over the years, whereas other zones have taken their turns. The best the zone has got within the top hierarchy of the PDP in 21 years is deputy national chairman. The South-West was close to producing chairman in 2018 before some powerful forces adroitly manoeuvred and conspired against the likes of Chief Olabode George, Professor Tunde Adeniran and others in the race for the position.
Already, among the touted names as possible successor to the embattled incumbent national chairman, Prince Uche Secondus include a former governor of Osun State, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola; the governorship candidate of PDP in the October 2020 election in Ondo State, Eyitayo Jegede (SAN); a former deputy governor of Bayelsa State, retired Rear Admiral Gboribiogha John Jonah and a former governor of Cross River State, Liyel Imoke.
Much of the ongoing debate among party buffs is that PDP looks towards the North to gain an advantage over the APC the way it did for APC in 2015 if the opposition hopes to make hay. Part of the strands of the argument by observers is that since the last president of the country produced by the PDP hailed from the South, who spent six years in office, it was politically expedient for PDP to uphold its constitutional framework on power shift to avoid rocking the boat.
That perception on zoning, perhaps, is already playing out with Abubakar Atiku, Bukola Saraki, Aminu Tambuwal and Bala Mohammed, who is the governor of Bauchi State as the main dramatis personae.
What are the promises each of these likely aspirants hold for Nigeria, given their antecedents and pedigrees?
In the meantime, there are issues of age limit, knowledge about the economy, good governance in the light of the contemporary realities in the country. Recently, former military president, General Ibrahim Babangida elevated those issues to be debated by most Nigerians. He espoused that the next presidential hopeful ought to be in his 60s and have a better grasp of the economy of governance across party lines. His perspective on the raging debate over the presidential contest for the 2023 election tends to resonate with some party buffs and observers because of present socio-economic realities and global practices.
Atiku constituted a formidable force under the Obasanjo presidency for almost eight years before they parted ways at the threshold of the 2007 elections because of his ambition to succeed his boss. The tussle unarguably impacted negatively on the party down the line, culminating in a controversial poll that produced the late President Umaru Yar’Adua. Since then, Atiku has become regular face in the contest for the presidency but he literally went on a sabbatical abroad after losing the last presidential poll. Other party faithful picked up the gauntlet during the hearing of the election petitions arising from the defeat of the PDP at the tribunal and the appellate courts. Suffice to add that the final outcome of the spirited efforts threw the party in dilemma as it oscillated like a rudderless ship in a turbulent sea, manifest in a gale of defections sweeping across the flanks of PDP exacerbating internal acrimony and bitterness in many state chapters.
Bala Mohammed is a former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). He presided over a committee set by the Secondus-led PDP executive to review the performance of PDP in the 2019 elections and recommend the way forward. One of the most controversial recommendations was that the party jettisons the principle of power rotation. And ironically, sundry groups have been leading his touted presidential bid. During a visit to him in July by a coalition of groups, including the National Youth Council of Nigeria (NYCN), National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW), National Union of Bauchi State Students (NUBASS), Bauchi State Traders and Artisans Association and Association of Achaba and Keke NAPEPS visited him at Bauchi Government House to present their letter of endorsement to him, the governor reportedly said he had got the go-ahead by PDP in the state to run for president in 2023.
“Some of you saw me last week, going round to meet former ministers, senators and other leaders to discuss it (political ambition). But I have to consult traditional rulers and Ulamas too because I need their support,” he was quoted to have said. But he could face a major obstacle even within the PDP governors’ forum and other deeply entrenched vested interests in the PDP nay the polity. He stirred a major crisis through his statement following the public out over the activities of herdsmen carrying of illegal arms and unleashing terror on other citizen in parts of the country. According to some observers, it is better for Bala Mohammed to concentrate his energy on seeking a second term as governor and working to strengthen PDP in his state, and the North-East in general, where the likes of former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Honourable Yakubu Dogara have since dumped the party for the APC.
In 2019, the PDP primary election was a straight battle among five heavyweights: Atiku, Saraki, Tambuwal, Dr Musa Kwakwanso, Senator Ahmed Makarfi, Ibrahim Shekarau, Attahiru Bafarawa, and others. But pundits are predicting a likely change of scenario this time round, as barring undue influence from some former military generals, money politics and sharp practices and tendencies, the battle ahead could be between Saraki and Tambuwal. Those behind such postulation identify age as one of the factors that favour the duo, who incidentally, have been close allies.
One of the factors that appear to place Tambuwal is because he hails from North-West geopolitical zone. The area boasts of a huge voting population, going by the history of elections in the country. Saraki hails from North Central famous for statecraft. For the former, his remarkable rating as Speaker, House or Representatives resonates among most stakeholders. He was a stabilising force in the House in very difficult times in the House. There was an almost seamless, robust combination with the leadership of the Senate then such that issues of critical national importance were squarely and painstakingly handled to douse tension.
On the other divide, the tenure of Saraki, as the president of the Senate, also created a new vista and conviviality in the relationship between the majority and minority caucuses in the upper chambers of the National Assembly. It brought to the fore the immense benefits of harmony and congeniality in the relationship between the Senate and the House in one hand, the Executive arm of government and the National Assembly, in another. His tenure clearly defined and affirmed the principle of independence of the legislature to bolster democracy and foster autonomy of the three arms of government: executive, legislature and the judiciary.
However, in the opinion of some party buffs, the issues of competence, capability, capacity and courage will be key in the tilt in the battle for the ticket of the party on the contenders. Ditto bridges they might have individually built across the political divides and geopolitical zones of the country. A scion of the popular the Saraki political dynasty, Saraki combines the experiences of a two-term governor of Kwara State and under the banner of PDP and across party lines with the role of bridge-builder, peacemaker and reconciliator, as chairman, the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF) and head, PDP national Reconciliation Committee.
Similarly, the credentials of Tambuwal are instructive in the search for a leadership with pedigree, vision and dynamism in the next political dispensation. He has also showcased his capacity and ability to make a difference as a governor, leader of the House, loyal party man and as a peacemaker, especially in his capacity as the chairman, PDP Governors Forum and during tumultuous periods in the life of the party. In the opinion of some analysts and other major stakeholders in the Nigerian project, the mixed fortunes of the country in the last six years underscore the chances of the PDP in the 2023 elections if it succeeds in putting its house in order and makes appropriate choices in candidature.
Following the rash of litigation over the fate of Secondus as chairman and consequent conflicting ruling by courts of equal jurisdiction, a former stalwart of the party had cautioned against PDP ruining its chances in the next elections. He warned the PDP against playing into the hands of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) through a fratricidal internal political war based on individual’s ambition. His words: “I know the psychology of all the major players. They are only after themselves. They think they will get what they want through their own machinations. They don’t know that God giveth and taketh. Only money and power are their primary considerations and not the interests of the party or that of Nigeria.”
But, who will the PDP pick as candidate for the 2023 presidential election that is just 14 months away? Can the riddle be solved seamlessly at the convention of the party slated for October to pave the way for rancour-free primaries?
YOU SHOULD NOT MISS THESE HEADLINES FROM NIGERIAN TRIBUNE
We Have Not Had Water Supply In Months ― Abeokuta Residents
In spite of the huge investment in the water sector by the government and international organisations, water scarcity has grown to become a perennial nightmare for residents of Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital. This report x-rays the lives and experiences of residents in getting clean, potable and affordable water amidst the surge of COVID-19 cases in the state…
Selfies, video calls and Chinese documentaries: The things you’ll meet onboard Lagos-Ibadan train
The Lagos-Ibadan railway was inaugurated recently for a full paid operation by the Nigerian Railway Corporation after about a year of free test-run. Our reporter joined the train to and fro Lagos from Ibadan and tells his experience in this report…
and then