Where does the PDP go from here?

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) dropped the bombshell that leaders of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had feared most in its December 23, 2025, communication with the party. The electoral commission’s stance that it would be unable to effect changes in the leadership data of the party in its custody was a huge blow that the leaders had wished never landed. But it was an avoidable blow.

Insiders in the party have spoken of a long debate leading to the November 15-16 disputed national convention of the party held in Ibadan, Oyo State. Ahead of that convention, which some leaders of the party on the side of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Barrister Nyesom Wike, had now dubbed a “social gathering,” there were two pillars of opinion among the stakeholders.  A former President of the Senate, Senator Bukola Saraki, who canvassed one of the views, had called for the inauguration of a caretaker committee to take over from the Damagum-led team before a unifying convention is called.  The second view was to the effect that the Ibadan convention should be used to deal decisively with those opposed to the Iliya Damagum-led executive. Before Saraki spoke, the national secretary of the party under the Ambassador Iliya Damagum-led executive, Senator Samuel Anyanwu, had raised the alarm that his signature in correspondence to INEC and other security agencies, announcing the planned convention, was forged.

Saraki’s advice was also in the wake of the contending court cases involving the Wike-backed group on one hand and the former governor of Jigawa State, Sule Lamido, on the other. Lamido wanted to be allowed to contest the national chairmanship position at the Ibadan convention and had filed a suit for that purpose. While the Wike-backed group in the party appeared at home with the suggestion for a caretaker committee, the group including the Board of Trustees (BoT), some older members of the party and Ambassador Damagum, which was backed by the governor of Oyo State, Seyi Makinde, insisted on going ahead with the convention, as according to them, records in their custody showed that Anyanwu could not sustain the forgery allegation.

A series of meetings held in Abuja ahead of the November convention debated the two pillars of opinion. However, each camp stuck to its strategy.  The Wike group went ahead to inaugurate a parallel caretaker committee after Barrister Tanimu Turaki, SAN, had emerged as the national chairman in Ibadan. Amid that ding dong and the prolonged debates, some loyalists of the party on the Damagum side were said to have insisted on the ‘Enough was Enough’ mantra for Wike and Anyanwu and declared readiness to deal decisive blows on the “recalcitrant members” of the party through the Ibadan convention. But the Wike-led group basked in the euphoria of the October 31 ruling of Justice James Omotosho of the Federal High Court, Abuja, in suit number FHC/ABJ/CS/2120/2025,  which restrained INEC from recognising the planned convention and the November 14, 2025, ruling of Justice Petr Lifu, also of the Federal High Court, in suit number FHC/ABJ/CS/2299/2025, which stopped the PDP from holding the convention.  Of course, the Makinde-backed PDP team also relied on a series of injunctions issued by Justice Ladiran Akintola of Oyo State High Court.

With both parties standing firm on the strength of their arguments, the PDP got entangled in the leadership crisis that looks to endure. INEC, on December 23, affirmed that much in its communication addressed to PDP’s legal representatives in a letter dated December 22, 2025.  In the letter addressed to Akintayo Balogun & Co, INEC stated that recognising the Tanimu Turaku-led executive remained sub judice, as doing so might indicate that it was taking an administrative action that may pre-empt the outcome of the legal processes before the courts.

The letter read in part: “In the light of the above pending suits, your request is prejudiced and cannot be acceded to until the determination of the pending appeals.

“In the circumstances, and in obedience to the rule of law and subsisting court orders, the commission is unable to accede to the demand to recognise or update the list of the national officers said to have emerged from the PDP National convention of 15th- 16th November 2025.”

Close watchers of the development would want to praise the wisdom of the governor of Osun State, Ademola Adeleke, whose re-election bid would have hit a massive turbulence if he had picked the governorship ticket in the primary election conducted weeks ago.

PDP Presidential hopeful, Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, is one of those who believe that the PDP will not die, despite the series of violent waves targeting its soul.  In a discussion early in 2024, as the travails that have now boomeranged started unfolding, he insisted that the PDP will not die and that the leaders have a way of rescuing the once-behemoth political structure from the jaws of death. Even though he has continued to showcase his trust in the fortunes of the party through his activities in recent times, it won’t be difficult to insinuate that his strong faith in the survival of the party has not been somewhat shaken by the endless bickering. It would also be interesting to sound out someone like Senator Bukola Saraki, who earlier counselled that a caretaker committee might be a better option than the Ibadan convention.

But as things stand, two pillars of opinion have equally emerged.  Hints from within the party have indicated that one arm of the PDP is willing to go through the legal process and await the final ruling at the apex court as to the veracity of the November 15 and 16 national convention, while another set of opinion molders in the party have canvassed a quick fix, where the organs of the party would adopt the caretaker option earlier suggested by Saraki. I gathered that those who canvassed this opinion said it was a survival option, as it might look difficult to toy with the fate of party faithful in the Year 2026. One of the leaders had said that the survival option would be to apply the brake and drop all ego trips and get all of the stakeholders to agree on a caretaker committee.  Remember, however, that the Wike-backed group had announced a caretaker committee on the eve of the December 9 expiration of Damagum’s tenure. That could pose another challenge even to this late rally. Just last week, the committee not only dissolved the executive councils in the perceived “enemy” states, but it also inaugurated caretaker committees in the 14 states. That leaves the PDP practically factionalised in almost all the states that were under its control as at the close of elections in 2023.

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Is there a way for the party to get out of the woods as things stand?  That is the million- dollar question. Some party leaders said that where the purpose is sincere, there would be a way.  One of the sources stated that from the beginning, the advice of the former Senate President, Bukola Saraki, for a caretaker committee should have been considered, whereby all organs of the party would have agreed on the candidates for the respective offices, their tenure, and the terms of reference. That advice appeared to have carried some weight of prophecy as it implies that party members would manage the affairs in such a way that would enable them to avoid the unwinding processes of the courts and the threat of factionalisation. Now that the twin evil envisaged in the advice of the former Senator President has befallen the party, is there a way out of the abyss?

The national convention, as the highest decision-making organ of the party, is supposed to procure solutions that would fix its problems. A situation where the convention becomes the actor that stirs up the pond can only procure clear danger for the party faithful.

It is clear now that party followers are already gripped by tension across the length of the federation.  If the National Assembly retains the provisions that guide primary elections as contained in the 2022 Electoral Act, candidates for state houses of assembly, House of Representatives, the Senate, and the governorship candidates for the 2027 election must emerge between March and June 2026.  Will the courts have finalised their rulings by the first quarter of 2026? That is another weighty question.

Though they would say that politics is not for the faint-hearted, even the bravest of strategists must have started thinking of alternative routes as things stand.

Whether it is too late to go back to the Saraki option is another thing to consider.  But waiting for the courts would surely amount to a dangerous gamble even the most ardent stalker would think twice to take. While Saraki advised that the convention be put on hold to enable stakeholders resolve all the issues in line with the constitution, and chart the way forward, the leaders set aside the advice. Then issues developed into contention in the courts, and factions started emerging and thriving. Now, the Tanimu Turaki group has to appeal the Justice Omotosho and Lifu cases, while the Wike-backed groups would have to appear in the Ibadan High Court suit.  That could pose an endless wait that may deny members the right to participate in the 2026 primaries. That is a major fear.

Maybe the party leaders would now have to limit the extent of the damage and return to the counsel by Saraki ahead of the Ibadan convention by putting in place an all-comers caretaker committee.

As one of the leaders said last week, those insisting on their determination to wait for the next five months to fix the matter at the courts are in no way assured of victory in the courts, and the timelines provided by the Electoral Act cannot be toyed with.

 A leader of the party who would rather push for a peace option told me the following last week: “The party leaders should move among themselves and start talking about resolving the disagreements. I believe the Saraki option would work if we are sincere. Those waiting on the courts for the next five months or so are not the judges to decide the cases. So, no one is assured of winning the case. And we are supposed to think of what could happen to the party during the waiting period. Will the party not have bled to death?  Will all the members not have defected? Now you have four governors. Is there any assurance that one will remain for five months? Which serious aspirant will subject himself to the kind of uncertainty the court cases promise? Are we not risking a dead and forgotten party by June, when all serious members would have found new alliances?”