NIGERIA has been a moping and drifting nation since it gained flag-independence. Nigeria started with implementing 5-Year National Development Plans after independence in 1960. She implemented the national plans till 1985. Then the World Bank and IMF introducedthe African Structural Adjustment Programmes(SAPs) to many African nations including Nigeria in the early 1980s. Nigeria began to implement SAP in 1986. Nigeria claimed to have stopped implementing SAP in 2021 in view of the prevalent elements of SAP in the economy and returned to 5-Year National Development Plans with the adoption of 2021-2025 National DevelopmentPlan. The Nigeria government may not see the need to tell her illiterate citizens whythe nation returned to national plans. But the act of changing from National Development Plans to SAP and back to National Development Plans suggests that Nigeria is moping and drifting, notwithstanding the confidence with which some managers of the economy who do not know that they do not know talk about vogue programmes they are forcing the nation to waste time implementing.
We all know Nigeria is much worse off today than in 1986. A World Bank study in year 2000, entitled “Can Africa claim the 21st century,” found out that Africa was much poorer in year 2000 than it was in the 1970s. Nigeria cannot make progress till the nation changes its conception of how a nation grows and develops. Nigeria has always been measuring GDP growth. The Obansanjo administration measure 5 % GDP, the Jonathan administration measured 7% and the Buhari administration was in recesion all the time. I have carried out analyses of the National Plans and the SAP and found out that they lacked growth-promoting-elements and could not promote sustainable economic growth and industrialization and development(SEGID). European nations, the United States of America, Japan, Korea and China were poor agricultural/artisan nations for many centuries. They became productive and rich nations after they achieved the modern industrialization. This historical evidence suggests that industrialisation is the solution to poverty, mass unemployment and related security problems.
Today, many other nations are moping and drifting. Sri Lanka, Argentina and Peru are some other moping nations. The reason for moping is, there has not been clear intellectual direction for promoting national development for developing nations to follow. The technologically advanced nations achieved their enviable status through accident and intuition in some cases; only few cases were planned. History therefore suggests that all poor agricultural/artisan nations must strive to achieve industrialisation to eliminate poverty and related problems. Economists and other Western social scientists and their friends – accountants, bankers, lawyers, administrators, etc., lack a sense of history and do not understand the science that underlies industrialisation. So, they cannot plan for industrialisation. Yet, they have been the technocrats in the Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) of our governments over the yearsand managing the economy. This explains why Nigeria has been moping and drifting since independence. No one solves a problem he does not understand.
Today, Nigeria is virtually a failed nation. It is the poverty capital of the world. Politicians do not readily build nations. European and Asian kings ruled their nations in abject poverty 2000-3000 years before industrilisation overthrew them and freed the people. Politicians (kings, soldiers, civilians, etc.) cannot be trusted.Nigerians must not leave Nigeria for politician to ruin. What should the people do? The national economy is by far more important for all Nigerians than politics. No nation is great because it has a set of great politicians or a sophisticated political system or because it is a capitalist or communist nation? Nations are great because they are industrialised, wealthy and produce many types of goods and service including military wares. Again, all rich nations are industrialised. No agricultural/artisan or commodity-producing nation is wealthy.
First, let us understand the problem of development.Again, history shows that agricultural/artisan nations are poor but they become productive and rich when they achieve the modern industrialization. We can say thatindustrialisationis the primary basis of economic democracy (mass participation in the economic sphere of a society). Industrialisation transforms all aspects of life of a society. It is economic democracy that builds nations not writing beautiful constitutions and frivolous elections for electing lame duck Prime Ministers and Presidents. Industrialisation is achieved through learning. It is an advanced critical state of scientific knowledge, skills and competences/capabilities in a society. Industrialisationis the economic status in which a society begins to apply theoretical science in solving problems including production. Only about 10 (ten) per cent of Nigerians participate in our so-called money-elections (symbols of political democracy). Industrialisation is most rapid when all citizens are mobilized and everyone is uplifted when a nation achieves the modern industrialisation. It is because Western intellectuals do not understand the science of economic development that their focus is all on constitution writing and organizing expensive elections.
Industrialisaion is a capability-building process. Industrialisation is achieved through learning (education, training, employment and research). Education, alone, co-exists with mass unemployment and poverty. The experience of Africans and Latin-Americans over the centuries demonstrated this clearly.In all learning processes, the learning rate determines how soon the learning person or society achieves a desired target like speaking a language or achieving industrialization. High learning intensity or rate leads to rapid progress and low learning intensity leads to slow progress. Learning has never been a priority in the affairs of Nigeria. Ignorance has limited the developing world to education alone rather than integrated learning (education, training, employment and research). Now we all know why Nigeria has been moping, drifting, stagnating and why our nation is the one with the largest number of poverty-stricken people in the world. European and Asian kings neglected education for 2000-3000 years. There were no public educational systems in Europe for about 2000 years.
That is why European and Asian development experience were very slow and chaotic.Our focus must be on industrailisation(economic democracy) not constitutionalism, not frivolous and expensive elections (political democracy), to save Nigeria. Nigerian military coup d’ eta and elections have always produced lame duck heads of government. Nigeria’s failure will continue, if we continue to emphasize politics and abandon the economy for politicians and foreigners to loot.
Promoting industrialization is the most important factor for arresting/eliminatingmass unemployment, poverty and insecurity. Our industrialization theory suggested that mobilizing ALL Nigerians for learning (education, training, employment and research) will lead to industrialization in a few decades. During the learning process, there will not be idleness, no mass unemployment, poverty and insecurity will be eliminated speedily.
Japan mobilized all her citizens for learning 1886-1905 and achieved industrialization. China mobilized all her citizens for learning in 1949 and achieved industrialisation early in the 1980s. There is hope for Nigerians and Nigeria.
- Professor Ogbimi writes in via fogbimi@yahoo.com)
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