Recent developments in the nation’s political space raise questions about activities of the Fifth Column within the federal administration. The current political situation in Osun State is a typical case of insiders working hard to destroy the base of President Bola Tinubu as they are also doing within the Lagos space.
The volatile political situation in the northern part of the country is an open book. The North is revolting and it is doing so quite vehemently. An influential group in the North is mobilising across party lines to punish the incumbent for sins they felt he committed.
Northern rivals are forgiving each other and getting united In their anti-Tinubu plot. Realists in the camp of the President know that the plot is real and they are permuting on counter strategies. The core realists remembered the tide that swept former President Goodluck Jonathan out of office. It was a web of deep intrigues, signs of which are emerging gradually with the North as the launching landscape.
Several options are open to the President’s men. The most obvious is the path of reconciliation with aggrieved political forces. This route appears to be a failed line as the infighting appears to have degenerated beyond repair. Reports even suggested fifth columnists within the President’s caucus.
The other route is geo-political realignment. This may involve balkanising the North and ensuring the ostracisation of the North-West from North-East and the North-Central. Capitalising on the Vice Presidency in Kanuri axis, a reach out to the South South and South East can produce political magic. This path is a complex game of consensus building, demanding respect for regional interests of various players.
The President may also adopt a strong arm tactic of raising, empowering and strengthening his boys across the geo-political zones. This may entail railroading and diluting national institutions to overcome growing political diseases ahead of 2027. Mr President has the capacity to execute this dark path if he chooses to, considering his pedigree as a master strategist.
There is, however, a condition for any of the options to work. The President must secure his home base. The six South-West states must, one way or the other, be politically united for the second term agenda of Mr President. How the President will achieve that line is still a deep contemplation.
Two states in the South-West are particularly important: Oyo and Osun states. Oyo is the political capital of the Yoruba people. Osun is the ancestral state of Mr President. Both states are currently controlled by the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Governors of both states control the streets, in addition to possessing heavy war chest. Both Ademola Adeleke and Seyi Makinde are dozen of the streets in both Osun and Oyo.
What should be the President’s tactics or broad strategies? Should the President focus on capturing the two states by force or other subtle less volatile model? In the case of Osun, the President faces a precarious situation. His field men in Osun are quite unpopular with records while in governance. Any deployment of federal might will only deepen animosity against the Number one citizen. A smart move will be to secure a deal with the Adelekes in 2027 in return for similar understanding on 2026 state elections.
The above line was accepted by many key aides and associates of Mr President. It was seen as the most logical option. Yet a family member of the President fails to note and accept that the presidential basket is more precious than the gubernatorial plate. He is blinded by his own personal ambition to ignore and play ludo with the president’s sacred re-election goal.
That explains the headline of this write up. Who are the President’s enemies in Osun? Anybody prodding him to forcefully take over Osun is a closet enemy of Mr President.
What the President’s real men should do is to rally his home base of the South-West behind him. A direct decision to create a solid base from where the President can launch out is the most apt strategy. At a time the core North is mobilising to derobe the incumbent, it is unbelievable that some close allies of the Number One citizen are trying to destabilize his home base.
Before it is too late, genuine lovers of the President need to rework the current approach. The storm is gathering. This is real. Solidifying the home base should be an urgent policy.
- Fidipote Sangodare, a public affairs analyst, writes from Garki,Area 10, Abuja.
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