US solar capacity growth slows despite Trump’s policy changes

U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to scrap subsidies and tax breaks for renewable energy developers has slowed, but not stopped, the growth of solar power capacity across the country.

Data from energy portal Cleanview shows that in the first half of 2025, utility-scale solar capacity grew by about 10% compared to the same period last year. This is well below the 33% increase in 2024 and the average annual growth rate of 29% since 2015.

Still, considering the administration’s stance against renewables and the policy uncertainty it has created, the fact that capacity is still rising is seen by clean energy supporters as a positive outcome.

With federal tax credits for solar systems set to be reduced from 2026, many developers are expected to speed up new installations before the end of the year, which could lift overall growth in 2025.

While national growth so far is around 10%, the pace varies widely by state.

Texas, the largest solar state, has recorded a 14% increase in utility-scale solar capacity this year, fuelling optimism that demand will remain steady despite reduced federal support.

California, the second-largest market and long a leader in renewable energy, has grown by only 2% so far in 2025 — a sharp drop from its 13% annual average growth since 2020. This slowdown has surprised industry advocates and raised concerns about a potential broader decline in demand.

In Florida, the third-largest solar market, capacity has grown 8% year-on-year to just under 12,000 megawatts. However, no new utility-scale projects have been added since January, suggesting activity in the state may have stalled. Similar slowdowns have been reported in North Carolina, Nevada, and New Mexico.

In contrast, Arizona, ranked fifth nationally, has seen a 24% increase in capacity, while Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Idaho, Missouri, Michigan, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Indiana have all posted growth well above the national average.

With developers aiming to finalise projects before the subsidy cuts take effect, more capacity additions are expected in the months ahead. This could help push the year’s overall growth higher, even as federal incentives are scaled back.

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