Tinubu and his Southern Solidarity coalition

Somewhere in-between the divine justice of reaping what you sow is mercy. Jesus says to obtain it, you still have to sow it; blessed are the merciful for they shall receive mercy. But God says He can also choose to be merciful to the undeserving and be compassionate to whoever He chooses. This, I believe, is in demonstration of His unquestionable status. Somewhere in-between the two paths, now-late President Muhammadu Buhari as a politician, got hemmed in. For someone whose presidential ambition was worth more than the blood of Nigerians and fulfilled same soaked in the blood of the innocent, he somewhat enjoyed “peace” in office even when he supervised an election that shamed decency in 2019 for his re-election. Beyond the feeble judicial attempt made by the opposition, he sailed almost untroubled into his 4+4. For someone who refused to recognise all his predecessors-in-office, who all Instructively defeated him at the ballot in his first three violent attempts to be president, and shunned all national duties demanded of former leaders (as a former military head of state), by the constitution-though his beef didn’t stop him from collecting the allowance-for-life for his kind-he “enjoyed” full cooperation from other living leaders, save for occasional jabs from the irrepressible Ota farmer. While his eight years in office lasted, there were times I would just look back at his baboon and dog politics and wonder at the respite he got despite his markedly hatred for other leaders. Even in death, he was still beefing Shagari who Buhari would deem to have offended by overthrowing his government. Somehow, Buhari had a “bloodless” reign despite achieving his ambition on those morgued in cold blood when he failed elections, through chilling rhetoric, vicious body language and outright calls to his supporters to pick up arms against the State. If anything was crimson during his time, it was still of Nigerians murdered in cold blood by his security goons, especially during the EndSARS protests as well as his mal-administration that led many to die of hopelessness. The closest to him getting what he dished and served others was his son getting injured in rich kids’ indulgence but thankfully survived. The retired soldier who loved playing emotionless, was also forced to acknowledge humanity when his buddy and enforcer Chief of Staff, Abba Kyari, passed due to COVID. But it is good that Buhari reportedly sought forgiveness before he passed away. May God forgive him.

Save the “not-South East-turn political dealers from the zone who are adept at selling their “birthright” (if Nigeria insists Igbo remain a part of it, then it is the birth right of the race to also produce president in the interest of justice), no other political figure in the running republic has worked against the South like President Bola Tinubu, a Yoruba from the region. Ironically, he is now leading the effort to rally the zone into a monolith, reminiscent of what Fulani leaders of the North used in corralling other tribes in the region, particularly the Middle Belt into a formidable political entity in battling the hitherto disparate political South, for political control. And did they succeed?

Now, the hitherto anti-South Tinubu is moving to coalesce the political South around his re-election as a voting bloc and he seems to be succeeding, as a counterweight to the mounting political North’s opposition to his stay in office beyond 2027. If there is something to concede to the president, it is being unabashed in making his effort telling enough as a personal project, but meant to benefit the political South, particularly political leaders at sub-national level who as an older friend said recently, are now cashing out big time, as the president courts them across party lines. So far, the president has almost locked the region in at the level of having the governors’ support regardless of political parties. The two non-APC governors in the South West are in lockstep with him on 2027. In South East, despite the presence of Peter Obi, the only Igbo with touching distance of the presidency in the 2027 arena, Tinubu is also cruising. His “boys” rule two of the five states, two of the opposition governors are practically eating from his palms. The third isn’t far away.

In South South, omo ologo (apologies to Rarara) is on a roll. His party now rules in Edo, Delta, Cross River, Akwa Ibom and Rivers (yes, Rivers), leaving only Diri of Bayelsa as the oppositional exception. If former president Goodluck Jonathan from the state sits out the 2027 contest as being encouraged in some quarters, then Bayelsa is still very much likely to fall into the president’s column before the poll.

It is an attestation to Mr. President’s storied political sagacity that he could so widen his path to re-election on the political map just two years into his first term, though the political gain for him hasn’t really translated into democratic gain for the system and the people.

With minimum of 15 governor of APC, PDP, Labour and APGA actively and openly backing him for re-election, the President has again set another political record in Southern Nigeria, especially with the relative ease he got several opposition governors defecting to his ruling party. Someone said money talks, money rules. Looks like everyone truly has a price.

Ironically, Tinubu as a well-oiled political figure before his presidency, is on record, as having worked against the South in the power configuration and political ascending. His loyalty was clear in 2003 when Obasanjo was seeking re-election. If then Vice President Atiku Abubakar had broken with his boss in the PDP primaries, Tinubu, as governor elected on the platform of now-defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) but always fraternizing, would have made bookmakers’ job easy in predicting who he would pitch his tent with, despite his AD adopting Obasanjo for alajobi (kinship) sake.

The fall of history-making, Osun-born Olubunmi Etteh, the 10th speaker of the Nigerian Congress in 2007, was aided by many AD lawmakers clearly taking their instructions from their leader in Lagos. Today’s president helped dump a Southern speaker for a Northerner in Aminu Bello Masari to take over.

Then came 2011 and another Southern female, Mulikat Adeola-Akande from Oyo State, was the clear favourite, backed by then-President Goodluck Jonathan from the South South. But Asiwaju had to prove his political omnipotence to the new president, by leading a Northern mutiny against Jonathan and his anointed, Akande, throwing Aminu Tambuwal into the mix. The day Tambuwal was being enthroned Rauf Aregbesola and other Tinubu loyalists were seen in the chamber openly rooting for him and jubilating wildly when the “coup” succeeded.

The Jonathan saga is still too fresh for retelling. Today’s president did all he had to do to stop a Southern president from re-election for a Northerner in Muhammadu Buhari to deny South another four years in the saddle.

The question then is why should the president, another Southerner, not get what he had served others?. When Christians want to exempt themselves from a situation deemed inclement or negative, they say, “my case is different” and after the viral testimony from the Christian sister from Lord’s Chosen Church, you are now likely to hear “I am a Chosen, my case is different”.

Maybe the president’s case is different. Maybe the governors aren’t speaking for the people. Many maybes. But I should conclude with an observer’s point, “if South East and South South should vote Tinubu (in 2027), they must be under jazz (a spell)”. Maybe the president is graced differently. David did a lot worse than Saul but didn’t lose the kingdom. Maybe the mercy shown Jagaban by God is uncommon. The Bible speaks of sure mercy upon David. It is close to what Yoruba will call asegbe (escaping justice). Maybe he won’t reap what he sowed.

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