PDP: Can PDP avoid impending death?

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General Editor, Taiwo Adisa, takes a look at the deep quagmire the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has sunk into in the aftermath of the 2023 general election. He asks the question, is there a way forward for the political behemoth that once bestrode the scene of the Fourth Republic?

Earlier this month, the outspoken Umar Ardo, a former Special Adviser to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) in the February 2023 election, dropped a bombshell that would amount to badly stringed lyrics in the ears of loyalists of Nigeria’s former number two man.

Ardo had declared in a statement that the former Vice President might be expelled from the fold of the PDP ahead of the 2027 polls if he does not drop his presidential ambition.

Hear Ardo: “Reading through Atiku’s last Monday’s press conference regarding the outcome of the Supreme Court’s judgment and his position towards President Bola Tinubu’s Presidency vis-a-vis the following day’s communique of the PDP Governor’s Forum after its meeting at the Oyo State’s Governor’s Lodge, it’s obvious that the honeymoon between the party’s 2023 presidential candidate and its governors is now over.

“In a separate address to the press following the communique, the chairman of the forum, Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State, extolled the leadership qualities of President Tinubu and reiterated the PDP governors’ readiness to cooperate, support and work with the federal government that he leads.

“Nothing else can be more explicit in illustrating the two going on their different and separate ways more than this.

“With these opposing positions, it’s just a matter of time (and in a not distant future) for the inevitable implosion to happen, and either Atiku steps down his presidential ambition or leaves the PDP, or be expelled from the party! That’s my reading of the political crystal ball.”

In fact, the political crystal ball appears to hold nothing rosy for the PDP. The main opposition party looks completely directionless, with its powerful governors showing no clue as the the way forward.

Though the Adamawa politician, who had held offices across the political divides in the land claimed the above was his reading of the political ball, he might just have provided a clear possible forecast of the scenario that would unfold in the PDP going forward.

His projections provide a verdict on the dog-eat-dog situation the party once called the biggest in Africa and one destined to rule Nigeria for 60 years has found itself. Following the loss recorded by the party in the February 2023 election, the centre has been difficult to pull in one direction. Things have really fallen apart in the PDP.

But prior to that election, it seemed that the party was destined to win. Even, the Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Information and Strategy, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, agreed that Atiku was poised to win the 2023 election in view of the circumstances that appeared to work things in his favour.

“In my opinion, the election was Atiku’s to win, but God has a way of doing His things. Atiku had the support of some people in our own party and some even said that he had the support of some people in the Villa. The currency change by the masterminds was expected to give Atiku some political windfall…

“Unfortunately for Atiku, God did not want him to win. That was why his party broke into four factions and failed to benefit from the advantages given to him on the platter. Rabiu Kwankwanso took away possible PDP votes in Kano. Peter Obi swept away possible PDP votes in the South East and part of the South-South. The G-5 governors undermined him,” Tinubu’s Adviser had said in an interview, which captured the unique fall of the PDP in February.

The departure of its National Chairman, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu in March and his replacement by the Deputy National Chairman(North), Ambassador Umar Damagun as acting chairman appeared to have compounded the situation, leaving the Board of Trustees (BoT) in the middle in the middle of a shark-infested Ocean where the typhoon was taking a natural stroll, in an effort to pull in a direction

. “It’s a huge quandary out there, a confused state, bigger than dilemma. We are in a trilemma, sort of,” said an elder of the PDP, who prefers not to be named.

The elder cannot be wrong. The party has not been as directionless as it currently is. Going into the February elections, the party controlled 13 states and a faction of members of the National Assembly. Though the number still hovered around the same 13 governors after the election, recent pronouncements by the judiciary look threatening enough for the future of the once upon a behemoth. The states controlled by the PDP ahead of the last general election include Bauchi, Taraba, Adamawa, Oyo, Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa-Ibom, Abia, Enugu, Benue and Sokoto.

While the voters did not reject the party outright, the challenges steering it in the face are more of self-inflicted travails and machinations of powerful chieftains. Such challenges are now threatening to throw the party into the dustbin of history.

In the wake of the election, the PDP lost some and won some. It won Plateau and Zamfara, while it equally lost Benue and Abia, but the judiciary has placed its victory in Plateau and Zamfara on the balance with rulings at the Court of Appeal already reversing the gains. The hope can only rest on the apex court in the land, the Supreme Court.

How it all Started

A founding member of the party who spoke to the Sunday Tribune said that current travails of the party cannot but be traced to the foundation laid by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, whereby he made himself the leader of the party and governors, leaders in the states. He said that the trend had created the ugly scene that landed the PDP in the hot soup it is now roiling in.

Unlike the scenario that prevailed during the aborted Second Republic, the PDP under Obasanjo in 1999, preferred the President as the national leader of the party, while the National Chairman held the position at his mercy. The same is replicated in the states, where the state chairmen are more or less appointees of the governors. The PDP Governors Forum(PDPGF), which emerged on the wings of the governors’ quest for political relevance within the party, has continued to wax stronger and the party’s constitutionally recognised organs are the victims.

From 21 governors in 1999, the party’s rank grew to 28 in 2003 but it later lost Anambra to the All Progressives Grand Alliance(APGA), bringing the number to 27. In 2007, it retained that same number of governors after losing Osun, Edo, and Ekiti due to judicial pronouncements. In 2011, the rank reduced to 23, and in 2015, when the opposition parties had coalesced into the APC, the tide started to change, with the PDP managing its hold on 15 states. With the incursion of the APC growing stronger, the tide had completely changed as the PDP, which was once the roaring lion in the jungle of Nigerian politics had been beaten by the hands of time.

When the party was in control of the Federal Government, its governors could not exercise absolute powers, because the president as leader of the party, used to exercise some authority. But with the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) firmly in control from 2015, the PDPGF became the alternate ruling structure.

The existential threats to the operations of the governors in the states by the Anti-graft agencies however, also grew. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) was known for its stealthy watch on the finances of the states and with its relentless probes, the governors can only stand on tenuous political grounds. Commitment to political ideology became the sacrificial lamb and with the APC making no fuss about its ‘once you join us, your sins are forgiven’ declaration, the legs of the opposition party governors can only wobble in quick dance steps, as the leaf that dances to mysterious drumbeats on top of a river.

Such existential threats were said to have informed the insurgency that characterised the fall of the PDP going into the presidential election in February. Sources said that some influential governors of the PDP had resolved to take control of the structures ahead of the 2023 elections and do away with the perceived gerontocracy tendency, believed to be represented by the likes of Atiku and people of his age. However, the bid to take control of the party and its presidential ticket failed and that became the last straw that broke the proverbial camel’s back.

With the grievances being nursed by members of the PDPGF, some of whom later formed the G-5 group, the departure of Mr. Peter Obi to the Labour Party, and the move by the former governor of Kano state, Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso into the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), the fate of the opposition PDP appeared sealed in the February polls. Tinubu, who was declared the winner polled 8,794,726 votes, scoring 36.61 per cent of the votes. Atiku Abubakar won 6,984,520 votes amounting to 29.07 per cent. Peter Obi, who came third, won 6,101,533 votes or 25.40 per cent of the votes. Thus, as predictable as it was going into the polls, the votes of Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, when pulled together became the majority, as Tinubu only won 36 per cent of the total valid votes.

Aftermath of the polls

What stares the PDP in the face right now, however, looks bigger than the loss at the general elections. Investigations by the Sunday Tribune indicate that the real and disturbing problem burning the underpants of the PDP is the way forward from the quagmire it has sunk into after the rancorous 2023 elections.

With the former Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike taking up a role in the ruling APC government, the dagger to the soul of the PDP looks unmistakable.

Wike, as the leader of the G5 governors that battled Atiku during the campaigns remains, influential within the ranks of the PDP. In fact, it was said that the acting Chairman of the party, Ambassador Damagun, is comfortable with the leadership of the former Rivers State governor.

A source said that the G-5 governors had clamoured for the removal of Ayu during the campaigns because they knew that a friendly Damagun would be the next in line.

Sources said that the altercation between the former Senate President, Adolphus Wabara, and Wike over the need to replace Senator Samuel Anyanwu, as National Secretary, after he had won the governorship ticket of the PDP in Imo State was downplayed by Damagun because of his closeness to Wike. The source said that rather than leave the BoT chairman with no option but to intervene in the matter, the acting chairman should have taken a proactive position on the matter.

G5 and PDPGF

A major source of the party’s woes currently resides in the ranks of the PDPGF. This according to sources has to do with the fact that a majority of the governors were said to resolved not to back the emergence of Atiku or any of the old guards ahead of the presidential primaries in 2022. it was gathered that the likes of Bauchi State governor, Bala Mohammed and Adamawa governor, Umar Fintiri, were all on the same page originally. They were also initially joined by Douye Diri of Bayelsa State and Emmanuel Udom of Akwa-Ibom. But it was gathered that when the activism was taking a stronger dimension, the likes of Fintiri and Bala Mohammed had to pull out for the sake of local political realities. Again, Udom and Diri were said to have been annoyed by the failure of the other governors to carry them along in respect of some meetings held by the group in Ghana, while Godwin Obaseki of Edo had declared open enmity with Wike and was never considered as a member of the group, same as Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State, who was seen as lukewarm to the cause of the Young Turks. As things stand, it was learnt that with Baba Mohammed as chairman of PDPGF, the leadership of that group is already tilted towards Wike’s control, while it was said that the G5 is already inching towards an eight-member group. If that is the case, and in view of the enormity of powers of the PDPGF in the determination of the party’s positions, its fate as a leading opposition platform might have been sealed.

Last week, the ruling APC appointed a key ally of Wike to a strategic committee, while the registration of APC members in Rivers State was also placed under the armpit of one of his loyalists.

A source said that if the situation persists, the PDP could just be held on one hand by APC loyalists, while it continues to play the role of ball boys in future elections.

The Saraki Connection

Right now, sources close to the PDP said that the party’s future is hanging in the balance. Some leaders of the party were said to be in favour of maintaining a break from what appears a stranglehold of Wike on the party while others are also said to be wary of Atiku’s control.

That is where Ardo’s postulations come in. Those who were opposed to Atiku’s leadership and perceived intention to contest the 2027 polls are already seeking a way out.

It was said that this class of party men are rooting for the leadership of former Senate President Bukola Saraki, who is believed to have the capacity to string together the warring factions including the Wike loyalists into a thriving party again.

If a majority of the governors continue to go in one direction, it could come to a time when Atiku would be asked to openly renounce his 2027 ambition if he wants to continue to be relevant in the party.

Another source however said that Atiku’s camp is equally planning to rally the support of LP’s Peter Obi and NNPP’s Kwakwanso, while also reaching out to aggrieved members of the APC to form a formidable opposition going towards 2027

However, it was gathered that Atiku loyalists are afraid of the personality of Saraki, especially as it was believed that the former Senate President has an ongoing alliance with the Wike group. While Saraki is reputed among members of the party as a man of character who could pull the tendencies towards a certain goal, sources said that what remains unclear is the role Wike will play in such a situation. With Wike as a man Friday of the ruling party, a strong PDP could upstage the role the ruling party expects of him, a source said.

Rivers crisis and implications for PDP

One emerging trend which was not part of the original calculation is the crisis that erupted between former Governor Wike and his successor, Sim Fubara. The crisis erupted too soon, said a member of the PDP, who declared that the elders forum in the Rivers State PDP, were, however, moving to end the imbroglio.

Sources said that with the governor playing the carrot and stick game in this emerging instance, digging in and at the same time sending emissaries to Wike, the future of the relationship appeared bleak.

That being the case, the control of the much-touted political structure led by Wike in Rivers could be under threat. But a source said that the Wike camp appeared proactive and that the bid to control the structure of the ruling APC in Rivers could be one masterstroke against whatever Fubara and his supporters might have up their sleeves.

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