The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) has issued a warning that flooding is expected to affect Ogun, Oyo, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), and 28 other states in 2025.
The agency’s forecast, presented during the official unveiling of the 2025 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) by the Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Prof. Joseph Utsev, identifies a total of 1,249 communities across 176 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in 33 states and the FCT as being at high risk of flooding.
In addition, the forecast predicts that 2,187 communities in 293 LGAs across 31 states and the FCT will face moderate flood risks.
States falling into the high-risk category include, but are not limited to Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, and Zamfara.
Prof. Utsev stressed the severe impact of floods on lives, property, agriculture, and infrastructure.
He explained that the 2025 forecast aims to raise awareness and encourage preparedness, especially in vulnerable communities.
“This year’s theme on community preparedness and adaptation is timely, given the recurring floods and their impact on livelihoods and infrastructure,” Utsev said.
The 2025 Annual Flood Outlook is divided into three parts to enhance flood preparedness: a general flood forecast, a communication strategy for effective warning dissemination, and a mitigation plan to reduce exposure and vulnerability.
According to the forecast, high flood risks are expected for 657 communities in 52 LGAs from April to June, 544 communities in 142 LGAs from July to September, and 484 communities in 56 LGAs from October to November.
Moderate flood risks are projected for 445 communities in 116 LGAs from April to June, 1,458 communities in 271 LGAs from July to September, and 1,473 communities in 171 LGAs from October to November.
Urban flooding is also expected in major cities, including Abuja, Lagos, Port Harcourt, Ibadan, Kano, and Makurdi, mainly due to poor drainage and weak infrastructure.
Coastal states like Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers, and Ondo may experience flooding from rising sea levels and tidal surges, further threatening local livelihoods and river-based activities.
In light of the flood risks, Prof. Utsev announced initiatives such as the National Flood Insurance Programme, which will be piloted in Kogi and Jigawa states, and the Niger Flood Project, aimed at improving river navigation, flood control, and climate resilience.
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He also outlined plans for the Integrated Climate Resilience Project and the forthcoming Annual Drought Outlook.
NIHSA’s Director-General, Umar Mohammed, added that the agency will use advanced technologies and foster inter-agency collaboration to deliver accurate and timely flood forecasts.
He explained that the forecast is more community-focused in 2025, providing information not just for LGAs but specific at-risk communities.
“Our goal is to equip decision-makers with actionable information to protect lives, livelihoods, and property,” Mohammed said, adding that the outlook also assesses the potential impacts on sectors such as healthcare, education, agriculture, and transport.
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