Nigeria must shift from stabilisation to seven per cent growth by 2030 — NTU-SBF Centre

NIGERIA must shift its economic policy focus from macroeconomic stabilisation to accelerating broad-based growth, with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) needing to expand by at least seven percent by 2030, the NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies, has said.

The centre, in an updated 10-year economic roadmap for Nigeria, published by Nanyang Technological University (NTU), said major reforms since 2023 had helped stabilise the economy, but warned that the gains had yet to translate into sufficient jobs, higher incomes and improved living standards.

The report, authored by Amit Jain with economist Rafiq Raji as a contributor, said economic growth rose from one percent in 2021 to four per cent in 2025, and 4.4 percent in the second quarter of 2026.

However, it said the pace remained insufficient to meet Nigeria’s development needs, particularly amid the continuing cost-of-living crisis.

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The centre said the first phase of reforms, focused largely on stabilisation, had substantially been achieved. It urged the government to move immediately to a second phase centred on investment, industrialisation, job creation and higher productivity.

It identified fiscal discipline, monetary policy credibility, stronger infrastructure, improved access to finance and incentives for foreign direct investment as critical to achieving seven per cent growth.

The report warned that reforms including the floating of the naira, petrol subsidy removal and electricity tariff liberalisation had imposed significant social costs.

Citing World Bank data, it said Nigeria’s poverty headcount ratio rose to 61 percent in 2025, from 40 percent in 2019.

It also projected that debt servicing would consume about $11.6 billion in 2026, equivalent to roughly half of projected government revenue.

The centre urged the government to reduce the budget deficit towards the three per cent of GDP ceiling under the Fiscal Responsibility Act and improve transparency in public spending. It identified unreliable electricity as one of the biggest obstacles to faster growth, estimating that dependable power could add at least five percentage points to real GDP growth.

Nigeria has about 215 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves, but the resource remains inadequately commercialised for domestic power generation.

Of 13.6 gigawatts of installed generation capacity in 2026, only about 8.7GW could be wheeled through the national grid, while actual generation peaked at about 5.8GW.

The report called for private investment in transmission infrastructure, market-based gas pricing and cost-reflective electricity tariffs.

It also warned that limited access to affordable finance could undermine the growth target.

Nigerian banks raised N4.65 trillion between 2024 and 2026 under the recapitalisation programme, but the Centre questioned whether the additional capital would sufficiently reach the real economy.

It said banks still favour government securities and large corporate borrowers over riskier small and medium-sized enterprises.

Private-sector credit, it noted, represents less than a quarter of GDP, while only slightly more than one-tenth of firms have affordable access to credit.

The centre recommended credit guarantees, risk-sharing facilities, blended finance, supply-chain finance and movable-asset lending to expand SME financing.

It also urged stronger action against insecurity, poor infrastructure and weak contract enforcement.

The report cited the Dangote refinery as evidence that large-scale private investment, supported by appropriate government incentives, could drive industrialisation across agriculture, oil and gas, mining, manufacturing and electricity.

It said Nigeria’s priority should now be to consolidate macroeconomic stability and implement policies capable of delivering faster, sustainable and inclusive growth.