Kwara: Farmers blame farming disaster on NiMet forecast failure

Farmers in the Asa local government area of Kwara state have lamented over failure of the Meteorological Agency’s (NiMet) 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), saying that the development has caused a major farming disaster in the affected communities.

Speaking with the Tribune Online in Ilorin on Wednesday, the farmers said that many of them had relied upon the climate prediction for planting decisions.

Also, a leading pro-democracy and civic advocacy group, Kwara Must Change (KMC), has described the forecast as “a huge failure” with devastating consequences for food security, rural livelihoods, and farmer confidence.

Recall that NiMet’s 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction projected that rainfall in Asa would begin on May 7 and end on November 18, giving farmers nearly 195 days of rainfall to cultivate their crops. However, the reality was different.

According to the convener, Abdulrazaq Hamzat, he said that the forecasting failure goes beyond scientific error and borders on policy negligence.

“After early showers in May, rainfall stopped abruptly in June, disappeared entirely in July, and recorded only two isolated instances in August.

“Consistent rains only resumed in September, leaving a three-month drought during the peak growing season.

“This unprecedented rainfall pattern destroyed crops across Asa, wiping out the investments of farmers who had already spent heavily on land preparation, seedlings, and fertilizers. Many are now counting their losses in what they describe as “the worst season in living memory”.

Hamzat, who called on the Kwara State Government to provide immediate relief packages for affected farmers in Asa local government, warned that food shortages and worsening poverty could result if support is delayed.

In addition, Kwara Must Change advocated for the establishment of localized weather monitoring systems across the state to complement national forecasts, arguing that grassroots data could improve reliability and restore farmer confidence.

“This is a wakeup call. If national forecasts continue to fail, farmers will either abandon them or abandon farming altogether. Both outcomes are disastrous for our economy and food security”, he said.

KMC, which monitors governance and social development in Kwara, expressed alarm at the scale of devastation, accusing NiMet of undermining the very farmers it was meant to support.

“NiMet’s failure to capture the critical three-month cessation of rain between June and August is not just a technical oversight but a disaster of national importance. Agriculture is the lifeline of Kwara’s rural economy, and when institutions fail at such a critical point, the consequences are far-reaching,” Hamzat stated.

The group has demanded an urgent explanation from both NiMet and the Federal Government, insisting that farmers deserve accountability and corrective measures to prevent a repeat of the crisis.

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