Is Arewa ready for the Nigeria that’s coming?

By: Muhammad Musa-Gombe

Something deeply unsettling is unfolding across Northern Nigeria. Every Northerner, regardless of political party, ethnicity, religion, or state, must confront the same urgent question: are we preparing for the Nigeria that is already taking shape?

This is not another blame game about poverty, insecurity, failing schools, out-of-school children, erratic electricity, or crumbling roads. These problems are real, but beneath them lies a deeper worry: Nigeria is changing, and Arewa appears dangerously unprepared.

Some of these changes are no longer theoretical. Electricity is becoming more decentralised. State police, once dismissed as impossible, is moving closer to legal and operational reality. Every geopolitical zone now has a regional development commission. Abuja is beginning to recognise that Nigeria’s regions have different challenges and require different solutions.

So, where is the Arewa plan?

This is not an argument for blaming Abuja or presenting the North as the source of Nigeria’s problems. It is a call for Northerners to look beyond daily political quarrels and prepare for tomorrow. Across the federation, states and regions are recognising that old centralised habits can no longer serve the country. The question is whether Arewa is thinking strategically or simply reacting to each new crisis.

Take the regional development commissions. The North-East Development Commission, established in 2017, has gained years of experience in education, healthcare, roads, housing and support for displaced persons, even as insecurity limits its work. The North-Central Development Commission has also established its management structure.

The North-West, with seven states and enormous economic potential, has instead been distracted by disputes over leadership, offices and allowances. The Senate recently questioned the commission over nearly N943 million reportedly spent on board allowances while executive directors remained unappointed. Whatever the explanations, the larger point is clear: an institution created to plan development must not become a battlefield over positions and privileges.

A development commission should ask where the region will be in 10, 20 or 30 years. What will become of Kano’s industries? How will the seven states connect their economies? How can agriculture become productive and profitable? How will electricity reach farms, factories, schools and hospitals? What is the response to water shortages, desertification, climate change and rapid population growth? These questions should dominate our public discourse, not who controls which office.

The North-Central deserves particular attention. It sits at the heart of Nigeria and has enormous agricultural, mineral, water, industrial and logistical potential. It also includes the nation’s political capital. The commission’s mandate covers infrastructure, agriculture, industrialisation, education, health, water, electricity and regional development.

Its leadership is now talking about moving the region from fragmented state-level efforts towards a coordinated regional economy, with agriculture and agro-processing, minerals, infrastructure, digital connectivity, small businesses and economic corridors among its priorities. That is the kind of thinking the wider North needs. The test is whether these ideas will become a genuine strategy or merely another way of distributing projects among states.

Can Benue’s agricultural strength connect with processing centres and markets elsewhere? Can Niger’s energy and water potential support industry? Can Nasarawa and Plateau’s mineral and agricultural resources be developed responsibly? Can Kogi, Kwara and the Federal Capital Territory become part of a network linking the North to the South? The answers will determine whether the North-Central becomes merely Nigeria’s geographical middle or a major economic bridge.

Electricity offers another warning. The Electricity Act 2023 opened the way for states to regulate their own electricity markets and participate more directly in generation and distribution. By July 2026, 16 states had completed the transition, including Kogi, Niger, Plateau and Nasarawa.

The North may not be entirely absent, but how many Northern states have a clear electricity plan understood by their people? How many have identified industrial clusters requiring dedicated power? How many are discussing solar, gas, hydro and mini-grids with investors? Electricity is no longer something states can simply wait for Abuja to provide. The law has changed. Our thinking must change with it.

The same applies to policing. Nigeria is moving towards a federal and state policing structure. This should be a major Northern conversation. What should policing look like in Zamfara, Kaduna or Kano? Who will recruit officers? Who will appoint commanders? How will complaints be investigated? How will state and federal police cooperate? How can political capture be prevented?

The North has valuable experience with community-security arrangements, especially in areas affected by banditry and insurgency. But experience is not the same as preparedness. The region arguably has the greatest need for state policing, yet its institutional readiness remains weak. That contradiction should worry us.

Transportation is another test. The South-West is exploring existing rail corridors for passenger and freight services, linking transport with logistics, agriculture and industry. The point is not that the South-West has solved its problems. It is that regional thinking is taking shape.

What is the Arewa equivalent? Where is the strategy linking Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Kebbi, Maiduguri, Jos and Abuja? How will crops move from farms to processing centres and markets? How will the region connect its dry ports, airports, rail lines and commercial cities? Some ideas exist separately, but what is missing is a sustained conversation joining them into one regional economic plan.

The North has enormous assets: land, livestock, minerals, a youthful population, major markets, universities, historic commercial cities and proximity to the Sahel. Yet insecurity, poor human capital and weak infrastructure are undermining these advantages. The greatest contradiction is that the region is agriculturally important but increasingly food-insecure.

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The answer cannot be another promise of fertiliser or tractors. The North needs a complete agricultural economy built on security, irrigation, improved seeds, extension services, storage, processing, rural roads, electricity, credit, insurance, livestock development and reliable markets. Agriculture must move from subsistence to industry.

The human crisis is equally urgent. Out-of-school children, maternal deaths, drug abuse, unemployment, poverty and insecurity are connected. A child who is not in school today may become an unemployed and frustrated young person tomorrow. Frustration can feed crime; crime drives investment away; lack of investment creates more unemployment. This cycle will not be broken by speeches alone.

Arewa needs a serious, non-partisan development compact involving governors, lawmakers, traditional rulers, academics, businesses, professional bodies, civil society and young people. Its purpose should be a practical 20-year plan with measurable targets: more children in school, lower maternal mortality, reliable electricity, connected roads and railways, functioning agro-processing zones, more jobs, and clear responses to policing, climate change and desertification.

We must stop confusing Arewa solidarity with a development strategy. Northerners can belong to different parties and support different candidates. But roads, schools, electricity and security do not belong to any party. Development must not wait for political agreement.

The North-East can turn reconstruction into long-term transformation. The North-West can move beyond institutional quarrels and build a development engine worthy of its population. The North-Central can use its agricultural, mineral, water and logistical strengths to become an economic bridge for the country. Together, the three zones must think beyond their separate commissions because banditry, desertification, markets, migration and transport do not respect state boundaries.

The most important question is not whether Arewa is disadvantaged. It is whether Arewa is prepared for decentralised electricity, state policing, regional transport, a changing agricultural economy, rapid urbanisation, climate shocks and millions of young people entering the labour market.

It is not too late. But the North does not need another declaration of unity. It needs a programme of preparedness: leaders willing to plan beyond the next election, institutions focused on results, and citizens prepared to demand delivery.

What kind of Arewa do we want our children to inherit, and what must we begin doing today to build it? The future will not wait for Arewa to organise itself. If we do not prepare, we should not be surprised when the future arrives and finds us unready.

Muhammad Musa-Gombe, a media practitioner, writes from Abuja.