Indonesia offers model for Nigeria’s $1trn economy ambition —Report

Highlights six key growth sectors

NIGERIA’S quest to transform its economy into a $1 trillion powerhouse by 2030 could draw valuable lessons from Indonesia’s development playbook, according to a new report by Norrenberger Advisory Partners Limited (NAPL).

The report identifies Indonesia as a compelling model, having successfully navigated similar challenges to emerge as a $1 trillion economy. It highlights six high-potential sectors Nigeria could leverage for accelerated growth: agriculture, trade, oil refining, telecommunications, entertainment, and banking and finance.

Over the past 25 years, Indonesia transitioned from a volatile emerging market into a stable trillion-dollar economy, averaging nearly 9 percent annual growth. Its success was underpinned by deliberate reforms such as effective exchange rate management, massive investments in infrastructure, export diversification, robust industrial policy, human capital development, and a strong anti-corruption drive.

“Achieving Nigeria’s trillion-dollar ambition will require more than optimistic projections; it demands coordinated and transformative action between the public and private sectors. In this regard, Indonesia provides a practical and proven template,” the report noted.

As of 2024, Nigeria’s nominal GDP stands at approximately $237.5 billion, down sharply from $589.6 billion in 2022 and $341.2 billion in 2023. The contraction, despite moderate growth in naira terms, is largely due to the steep depreciation of the local currency.

With just five years left, Nigeria’s growth trajectory—averaging 4 percent in real terms and 15 percent nominally—falls significantly short of the required pace. NAPL estimates that reaching the $1 trillion mark by 2030 would require at least 22 percent nominal annual growth, alongside exchange rate stabilization at or below N1,200/$.

The report further observed that while macroeconomic headwinds persist, cocoa exports have emerged as a bright spot for Nigeria. In the first quarter of 2025, export revenues surged 220 percent year-on-year to N1.23 trillion, up from N384.1 billion in the same period of 2024—the highest quarterly cocoa earnings on record.

This surge reflects both elevated global prices and higher export volumes, underlining cocoa’s strategic role as a non-oil export driver. The windfall is helping Nigeria diversify foreign exchange inflows, narrow its trade deficit, and cushion exchange rate volatility at a time when oil revenues remain fragile.

Beyond foreign exchange, higher cocoa receipts are also stimulating rural economies, creating jobs, and strengthening agricultural value chains—all vital for sustainable growth. However, experts warn that structural challenges such as aging trees, poor farmer financing, and weak infrastructure must be tackled to maximise long-term gains.

Nigeria’s economic outlook is also being shaped by volatility in global crude markets. The first half of 2025 saw Brent crude swing from mid-$70s per barrel in January to a multi-year low of $60.48/bbl in April, before partial recovery. The decline was triggered largely by the rollback of OPEC+ voluntary production cuts, totaling 2.2 million barrels per day, which stoked fears of oversupply.

While oil remains a critical revenue source, the report stresses that Nigeria’s vulnerability to global price swings reinforces the need to expand non-oil exports like cocoa and build resilience through economic diversification.

Looking ahead, the cocoa market is expected to remain volatile. The International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) projects a 142,000 metric ton surplus in the 2024/25 season after four years of deficits. Global production is forecast to rise 7.8 percent to 4.84 million tonnes, while grindings could fall by 4.8 percent. This fragile balance means weather conditions in West Africa and disease outbreaks could still push prices higher.

For Nigeria, sustained investment in cocoa production and processing could unlock even greater export earnings, reduce dependence on oil, and support long-term stability.

The report concludes that Nigeria’s ambition of hitting the $1 trillion GDP mark is achievable but requires urgent reforms, heavy investment and a coordinated strategy. By drawing on Indonesia’s lessons, particularly in diversifying the economy, stabilising exchange rates, and building strong institutions, Nigeria can move closer to realising its trillion-dollar dream.

READ ALSO: Nigeria must pursue 10% GDP growth to achieve $1trn economy by 2030 —Alawuba