German 2025 election: Conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz emerges winner

The conservative opposition led by Friedrich Merz emerged victorious in Germany’s 2025 election on Sunday, securing a lacklustre victory.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz conceded defeat for his centre-left Social Democrats, acknowledging what he described as “a bitter election result.” 

According to projections from ARD and ZDF public television, his party suffered its worst post war outcome, finishing in third place.

Addressing supporters, Merz stated his intention to form a coalition government by Easter, though the process is expected to be challenging.

“The most important thing is to reestablish a viable government in Germany as quickly as possible,” he said, adding, “I am aware of the responsibility. I am also aware of the scale of the task that now lies ahead of us.”

The election was called seven months early following the collapse of Scholz’s coalition government in November. 

The campaign was overshadowed by economic stagnation and growing concerns over migration, with Merz advocating for stricter immigration policies. 

Additionally, uncertainty over the future of Ukraine and Europe’s alliance with the United States played a significant role in voter sentiment.

Germany, as the most populous country in the European Union and a key NATO member, remains pivotal in shaping Europe’s response to global challenges. 

The country has been Ukraine’s second-largest supplier of weapons, behind the U.S., and will play a crucial role in handling the implications of the Trump administration’s foreign and trade policies.

Exit polls and partial vote counts indicated that Merz’s Union bloc secured approximately 28.5% of the vote, while the AfD gained around 20.5%, a significant increase from its 2021 performance. Scholz’s Social Democrats received just over 16%, marking a historic low. The Greens, who were also part of the outgoing coalition, polled at around 12%.

Among smaller parties, the hard-left Left Party staged a notable comeback, securing up to 9% of the vote. Meanwhile, the pro-business Free Democrats, another former coalition partner, were poised to lose their parliamentary representation with a projected 4.5%. The newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) was hovering near the 5% threshold required to enter parliament.

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Merz’s ability to form a stable government remains uncertain, as his path to a majority could require a coalition with Scholz’s Social Democrats or possibly a three-way alliance including the Greens, depending on whether the BSW gains parliamentary seats.

Following a heated campaign, Green Party candidate and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck urged Merz to moderate his approach. “We have seen the centre is weakened overall, and everyone should look at themselves and ask whether they didn’t contribute to that,” Habeck remarked. “Now he must see that he acts like a chancellor.”

The Social Democrats’ general secretary, Matthias Miersch, suggested that his party’s defeat was inevitable, stating, “this election wasn’t lost in the last eight weeks.”

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