About nine months to the 2023 general election, KUNLE ODEREMI, Biola Azeez and Ishola Michael write on some recurring decimals in the nation’s elections since democracy was restored to Nigeria.
Until lately, the authorities of the national population commission had for umpteenth times assured Nigerians that the head-count would go ahead in June this year. Now, the head-count has been shifted to April 2023. That will be about two months after the conduct of another general election to bring about a new government in the country. But there are increasing issues that seem to threaten the holding of the elections in about nine months time. The problem is multifaceted. One of the challenges is the near bankruptcy of the economy, worsened by haemorrhage occasioned by policy somersault, leadership ineptitude, mindless looting and profligacy of the economic and political elites. While the industrial and manufacturing sectors are in a near comatose, the real sector of the economy is asphyxiated by collapsed power sector and crippling import dependence.
The other factor is the rapacious appetite of the government for borrowing which has almost mortgaged the future of the country. In spite of the strident outcry of professional bodies and individuals in and outside the country, the government has consistently borrowed without evidence that most of the loans are being properly, efficiently and transparently deployed to the purpose it claimed the funds are meant for. Government has also adduced global crisis for the general economic woes and general worsening of situation in the country. For instance, it often gives such excuses as the outbreak of COVID-19 and vagaries in the international market as affecting the price of crude oil, which is Nigeria’s economic mainstay.Yet, the government has not walked the talk on cutting the high cost of governance which is acknowledged to be the highest in the sub-Sahara, It is recalled that an ad hoc committee set up by Buhari as he prepared to assume the mantle of leadership had recommended drastic changes in bureaucracy, including reduction in the cost of governance.
A corollary of the despicable state of the economy is the frightening level of poverty across the country. It earned Nigeria the ignoble status of the world capital of poverty until recently, as a huge chunk of the population fell below the poverty index. With the means of employment taking flight by the day, people have become less empowered to engage in productive activities, thus resorting to desperation and survivalist instincts.
Also, while the campaign of diversification of the economy by government over the years has been of an intent than action, the national currency has become worthless due to exchange rates to international currencies, especially the US Dollar and British Pounds Sterling. At independence in 1960, agriculture contributed the largest chunk of Nigeria’s foreign revenue. It formed the bulwark of the employment sector. Then agriculture ensured security in all ramifications for the country, regardless of the taste for foreign food items by a minute segment of the elites, especially the ruling class and expatriates from the Western world. Oil pushed agriculture to the background such that reviving the sector now poses a major challenge.
As the election year beckons, the major challenge that stares Nigerians in the face is insecurity, with its domino effects in other spheres of human endeavours. It has impacted negatively on all productive and economic sectors leading to an army of idle hand. For example, a huge percentage of farmers can no longer access their farms because of the activities of insurgents, terrorists, bandits, kidnappers and militants. The criminals have gone beyond the North-East where they unleashed terror and carnage on the citizens to moving to other zones in the North, the North-Central in particular, to cause further mayhem and make the areas ungovernable. The rampaging criminal elements have infiltrated, Kaduna, the base of military hardware’s and institutions, regarded as the nation’s architectural fortress to the chagrin of all and sundry.
In 2014, the country was at the throes of insurgents, with their activities largely confined to the North East. The then President Good luck Jonathan had to postpone the pending general election to enable the military clear the place of the insecurity to pave way for the poll. The goal was partly achieved to pave the way for the election that brought Buhari to power in 2015. His government had promised to tackle insecurity corruption and revive the economy. By 2019, the mantra of change from the throes of corruption, troubled economy and insecurity was a permanent feature. The country still managed to conduct the elections that renewed the mandate of the Buhari administration. With another round of elections beckoning, there is growing fear and uncertainty about the exercise in February next year. Parts of the north have become graveyards at random with both civilians and the military as victims of the activities of terrorists and bandits.
Bandits are in the prowl in the South-East, while suspected kidnappers and criminal herders lay siege to the South-West. Between January and April this year, terrorists have killed hundreds of people in Benue, Niger, Plateau, Kaduna, Katsina, Niger and Sokoto states. Thus, the issues raised by the Catholic archbishop of Sokoto Diocese, Bishop Hassan Kukah and the legal luminary, Aare Afe Babalola, some analysts say, are instructive on recurring issues in the political space. Both leaders are apprehensive of the seeming uncertainty and fear of an election taking place in Nigeria next year due to the amalgam of serious challenges confronting the country.
In the view of the Presidency, the opinion expressed by Kukah smacks of what the authorities regard as the bishop’s unfavourable disposition towards President Buhari.
“For a man who has been spreading hate for decades, nothing new in the homily, except for the fact that while millions of Christians were remembering the Lord’s crucifixion on Friday, His descent on Saturday, His resurrection on Sunday, and subsequent appearance to His disciples, Bishop Matthew Kukah was playing politics,” it said through a statement. The statement was titled, “Kukah’s virus of hate” and signed by the Senior Special Assistant to the President, in media and Publicity, Shehu Garba. But, Kukah fired another salvo in response to the statement. He challenged the trio of Garba, Femi Adeshina and Alhaji Lai Mohammed for an open debate to talk about what the achievements of the Buhari administration.
INEC and security
A couple of individuals and groups had before now advocated suspension of the general election. They had hinged their call on the imperative of addressing the problem of lopsided federal structure, security issues and core challenges threatening the corporate existence of the country. Apart from strengthening the advocacy, Aare Babalola argued that the 2023 general election provides an opportunity for self-discovery for Nigeria, which he said was now different from the one he used to know. He was unequivocal about the collateral damage the activities of terrorist and other hardened criminals had inflicted on the country. This issue has also been of concern to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). At a meeting of the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) held at his commission headquarters in Abuja, he recalled that four regular meetings of the ICCES were organised in 2021. He said: “The Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) met seven times, including one special and three emergency sessions to plan for election security, to strategise on how best to protect INEC facilities from malicious attacks across the country.” It was on that occasion he announced a planned gathering of the National Security Adviser, Babagana Monguno; Director-General of the Department of State Services, Mr Yusuf Magaji Bichi and the Inspector General of Police, Usman Alkali Baba, to ensure seamless conduct of offseason and general elections.
Besides, the INEC National Commissioner, Information and Voter Education, Barrister Festus Okoye, said it was necessary for all critical stakeholders to cooperate to checkmate security breaches as the election approaches. “As we move closer to the 2023 general election, all the critical stakeholders and the security agencies must resolve to degrade and or neutralize the security threats across the federation. Our people must be assured that they can vote in a peaceful atmosphere,” he said.
Calls for suspension of the general election has elicited both legal and constitutional arguments. A school of thought says the call throws up of legality. Those who hold such view say it will require an amendment of the existing constitution. The fate of such proposed amendment is predictable, given the simple majority of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the National Assembly. Another shade of opinion on the call for suspension of the general election said the most important issue is the corporate interest of the country in view of the worrisome dimension of insecurity. They recalled that former President Goodluck Jonathan had to postpone the 2015 general election at least by two weeks due to serious security breaches.
Lawyers react
Among legal luminaries that have spoken on the call for the suspension of the election is Mallam Yusuf Olaolu Ali (SAN). He also spoke on the suggestion for an interim government to succeed Buhari at the end of his tenure. Olaolu described the call as invitation to unimaginable crisis. He said there was no constitutional basis or need for suspension of elections, since there is no declaration of emergency. “I don’t think elections should be postponed or suspended because you’ll be creating anarchy or virtually crisis. There’s no emergency that has been declared. It’s only when you declare emergency that you have to think of suspending elections. If there is no emergency, there’s no constitutional basis to suspend elections. “When you talk of interim government, who will be the head of the interim government? Where will he or she come from? We have gone through that route before now.”
On the reported alarm raised by Kukah on the state of the nation, the erudite lawyer said: “Father Kukah is a Nigerian and he’s entitled to his opinion. So, I think he’s exercising his fundamental human rights and freedom of expression. That’s the way I see it.”
On his part, the chairman of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), in Bauchi State, Jibrin O. Jibrin was not favourably disposed to the ideas. He said: “First, we need to remember that there can never be a perfect document for a constitution. As such, the issue for us in Nigeria is lack of faith in the system hence the recourse to frequent constitutional amendment when even the present document has not been faithfully implemented at all levels. Take for instance, the Constitution of the United States of America, it has been in operation for a much longer period with fewer amendments compared to our own and yet, the Americans are faring better. So essentially, the issue in Nigeria is more about the actors and implementers of the Constitution rather than the document itself notwithstanding some of the issues or problems it may have. After all, as I have earlier observed, no constitution the world over, is perfect in the real sense of the word. Another point to take into account is that practically speaking, the timing for a serious constitutional amendment, considering the mood, the issues and general State of affairs in the country, is wrong,” he stressed.
The NBA chairman added: “It is better that the Buhari administration devote the little time left in bequeathing a legacy of credible election and smooth transition but certainly not constitutional amendment. As for Bishop Kukah’s alarm, I think the issue is more about providing practical solution than merely harping on the problems, because evidence abound of instances where little or no impact is felt when alarm bells pressers like the Bishop are put in the saddle. As such, it is my view that the system will benefit more if we focus on proffering solutions than merely being critical of the system. God bless Nigeria,” he said.
But, a chieftain of the APC in the state, Mohammed Aminu Tukur noted that the country needs a divine intervention to rescue it from adrift. “In summary to Elders Afe and Kukah, I think for now, the only remedy to our political stalemate is a revolution to salvage Nigeria. The assumed corruption crusader has woefully failed in fighting corruption and maintaining law and order. Nigeria has drifted already and only the grace of Almighty God is holding it up. The future is bleak and there are clouds all over as it concerns the 2023 general elections,” he said.
and then