Dunning-krugger effects and Suleiman’s misplaced severance package

Dunning-Krugger Effect is a rare type of cognitive bias where people with little expertise or ability assume they have superior expertise or ability. This  overestimation occurs as a result of  the fact that they  don’t have enough information to decifer that they don’t have enough knowledge. Rightly so is the disposition of Suleiman A. Suleiman in his verbose attempt at intellectual and journalistic expertise in his Monday, the 17th April 2023 article where he insinuated that the  loan obtained by the Federal Government for the 2023 National Population and Housing Census and from which the harsh effects of subsidy removal would be reduced where actually severance packages for outgoing public office holders and not actually to be used for the forthcoming Census or to cushion the effects of subsidy removal as appropriated.

The audacity with which Suleiman started his bizarre and disjointed article is compelling. However the journalist hunch he seems to have gotten and the logic employed falls short of any intellectual or journalistic expertise. That a government has collected loans at the twilight of its administration does not in anyway translate to a hidden agenda of misappropriation. While leading readers on with the hope of getting authentic information, the writer swerves badly in the wrong direction like a drunk driver and presented a warped up logic of the federal government trying to secure funds to be used to settle its outgoing public officers. Suleiman talked about  subsidy removal regime even though it has not taken effect, it is particularly important to explain that the comments made against the management of the National Population Commission as regards this year’s Census is misleading and capable of causing disaffection and reducing the people’s readiness to participate in the Census.

To begin with, Nigeria has a statutory body charged with the responsibility of taking care of the renumeration packages of appointees of the government and allocating national resources to the various states. It is the job of Revenue Mobilisation and Fiscal Allocation Commission to determine severance packages to the deserving appointees as at when due. This is constitutional and has been on  since the return of democratic rule, how can the president now decide to hide under other projects to get funds for the severance package for himself and his appointees? This is twisted logic and should be disregarded by all well meaning Nigerians.

In also trying to tarnish the image of the National Population Commission,  Suleiman presented a false impression that the Commission intends to use the sum of $1.89bn to conduct a Census few months to the end of Buhari’s administration. Whereas the figure of $1.89bn budget is correct, it must be noted that this is the sum total of all the resources the Commission has expended since 2013 preparatory to the actual census exercise. To make it seem like this amount is what is  needed at once by the Commission to conduct the forthcoming Census is misleading and an attempt to turn Nigerians against the good intentions of the Commission and Mr President.To sheepishly imply that the money will not eventually be used for the Census is a deliberate attempt at falsehood because over the years starting from 2013, the Commission has undertaken meticulous planning including using the the Geographic Information System (GIS) to demarcate the entire country into Enumeration Areas using satellite imagery and other efforts to ensure a seamless headcount including digital infrastructure needed to execute the first digital Census in this part of the world. How can anybody undo this expenses in an article?

It is already in the public domain that

the Federal Government has already committed more than 50% of the cost of census and this has been spent on preparatory activities such as the Enumeration Area Demarcation of 774 Local Government Areas, the conduct of pretest and trial census, recruitment of adhoc workers, procurement of Personal Digital Assistants and activation of Information Technology facilities for the Census. To overlook these giant strides and pretend that the Census is ill timed and the funds will be diverted to other purposes unknown to the author that it is actually a long term cumulative budget is appalling and a slap on the journalism profession. Of the above sum,  the only money needed by the Commission at the moment is the sum of N329 billion which will cover training and renumeration of over One Million adhoc staff and other logistics related to the mobilisation of personnel for the actual exercise. In fact, Nigerians who applied to as enumerators and facilitators in their numbers would be looking for Suleimans head.

Whatever is Mr. Suleiman’s motive for scripting the unprofessional article, malice, blackmail or unpatriotism must not be far from it. It also cast aspersions on his sense of patriotism. If he did not see anything wrong with the efforts so far by the Commission in ensuring that Nigerians get the best Census ever and the needed data to spur development, then his obsession with the actual Census is just a frantic effort to smear the name of the Commission and the good administration of President Buhari. Except Suleiman is acting in ignorance, how can one comfortably describe as severance package monies that have been budgeted for the payment of the training allowances and salaries of millions of Nigerians who will be participating in the 2023 Census? Does Suleiman mean to imply that Nigerians participating in the Census exercise would not be paid? How does such an endeavor translate to “severance package for officials of the present regime’’ as callously stated in his article?

For the avoidance of doubt, the Census project was planned for and captured in successive budgets as required. It is not a last minute project that should elicit suspicions. Since the Chairman and the Federal Commissioners of the National Population Commission are tenured appointees, the whole idea of severance package does not arise because their tenures will not end with the end of this administration. In drawing up the budget for the Census, there was need to factor in needs such as infrastructure and facilities, including training of skilled manpower, a geo referenced enumeration frame,  equipment especially Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) and IT infrastructure to support the real time transmission of data.  With the deficit in infrastructure in Nigeria at the moment, one can only imagine what it will cost the federal government to put those things in place. To question the cost and budget of this year’s Census is therefore an exercise in ignorance reserved only for those suffering from Dunning-Krugger Effect.

To make comparisons between the cost of Census in Nigeria and other countries without considering other important factors and indices is also a futile attempt at intellectualism. As earlier mentioned, there’s a huge infrastructural gap between Nigeria and many other advanced countries. The road network, electricity, internet penetration and connectivity as well as other human factors such as level of education and patriotic zeal can all play a part in lowering or increasing a countries Census budget. Whereas many countries use self counting methods to enumerate their populations, the deep rooted mistrust and illiteracy in Nigeria will not allow for that method of conducting Census to be deployed. One cannot also in all fairness suggest that Voter registers and data should be used as a way of saving cost because this years Census is not just about head count. Housing data, climate change adaption and resilience are also important part of this year’s Census exercise. The Commission is sure on top of preparations after expending huge sums of money and must be allowed to go through with this exercise without the unnecessary distractions of person’s bent on playing politics with national issues.

It is imperative to note that the preparations for this year’s Census started before the President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration. The aim was simply to acquire accurate data for national planning rather than relying on projection from inconclusive and inaccurate Census exercises. As an exercise was that started from the scratch without existing modern infrastructure, the cost is bound to be high if one fails to put into consideration the circumstances of our nation in relation to other advanced economies. However the benefits will indeed justify the investment and the infrastructure put in place will outlive this years census. We must therefore be forward looking and appreciative of the efforts put in place by the National Population Commission and the Federal Government now that we are almost getting to the finish line. Those inciting the public against the Commission and the Federal Government must note that so much has been spent already and there’ll be no wisdom in halting the exercise even if they were pontificating in the interest of Nigerians, a lot of resources is already invested and the nation and her citizens deserve to reap the benefits of a truly credible census exercise.

Rev Solomon Semaka is a Public Policy/Mass Media Consultant and lives in Abuja