Defections, realignments: How parties are plotting early moves ahead of 2027

By Naomi Sharang (NAN)

The race for the 2027 general elections is already heating up, with familiar patterns of political realignment, defections, and strategic manoeuvring across party lines beginning to dominate the landscape.

Though this trend is not new in Nigeria’s democracy, it continues to carry significant implications for governance, party ideology, and the credibility of the electoral process.

For many politicians and seasoned actors in Nigeria’s fluid party system, loyalty to party structures appears secondary to political survival and access to power.

Consequently, party platforms are often treated less as ideological homes and more as vehicles for electoral success.

The All Progressives Congress (APC) is navigating the complexities of holding power, balancing federal control with the risks of internal factionalism and intense competition.

While incumbency provides significant structural advantages, it simultaneously magnifies pressure from party stakeholders and public scrutiny regarding performance

Political pundits hold that managing these pressures will be critical as the party seeks to maintain cohesion ahead of 2027.

At the same time, smaller or emerging parties are positioning themselves as viable alternatives.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC), for instance, is gaining traction in discussions around coalition-building and opposition realignment.

Analysts say though ADC still lacks the nationwide structure of dominant parties, it is increasingly seen as a platform for politicians seeking new alliances or political reinvention.

In the Senate, the current party distribution stands as follows: APC—87; ADC—nine; Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)—six; the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA)—one; Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC)—one; the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP)—one; and Accord Party—one.

The Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Labour Party (LP) currently have no senators, bringing the total to 106, with three vacant seats following the demise of former occupants.

Recently, nine senators from the PDP, LP, and APGA defected to the ADC in a single political shift widely described by analysts as a sign of deepening realignments ahead of future elections.

Those who defected include Aminu Tambuwal (Sokoto), Eyinnaya Abaribe (Abia), Binos Yaroe (Adamawa), Victor Umeh (Anambra), Tony Nwonye (Anambra), and Lawal Usman (Kaduna).

Ogoshi Onawo (Nasarawa), Augustine Akobundu (Abia) and Ireti Kingibe (FCT).

In a related move, Sen. Seriake Dickson (Bayelsa West) defected from the PDP to the NDC, one of two newly approved parties by INEC.

In their defection letters, the lawmakers cited persistent internal crises, leadership disagreements, and protracted litigations within their former parties.

They also framed their actions as part of a broader effort to strengthen Nigeria’s democracy and prevent the emergence of a one-party state.

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However, the defections sparked constitutional debates in the Senate.

Deputy Senate President Jibrin Barau questioned whether the moves complied with constitutional provisions, which permit defection only under specific conditions such as party division or merger.

He noted that while divisions within the PDP might justify defections, the same could not be said for APGA with reference to Abaribe and the LP, where no clear factional splits exist.

“The Constitution provides that a legislator may change political parties only under specific circumstances.

“Such as when there is a division within the party they were elected under, or when there is a merger of parties or factions, one of which was originally sponsored by the member.

“Those moving from the PDP may have reasons, because we know there are two factions within the PDP—the Wike faction and the Makinde faction.

“However, my attention was drawn to the cases involving the APGA and the LP. I discovered that there is no division in APGA and no division in the LP,’’ he said.

Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele also raised concerns, particularly regarding Abaribe’s case, suggesting it be referred to the National Assembly’s Legal Department for clarification.

He stressed that the Constitution required legislators to belong to a political party, warning that any ambiguity could create procedural complications within the chamber.

“Abaribe has presented a unique situation. His letter is presenting us with a unique case.

“To my knowledge, there are no divisions within APGA; it remains one of the most cohesive political parties in Nigeria. Even those deeply involved in its leadership would agree there is no division within the party.

“Section 65 establishes the qualifications while Section 68 outlines the disqualifications.

“Section 68(1)(b) is very clear; it had envisaged such situations as the one  Abaribe finds himself in today.

“The Section states that any circumstance, including being sacked by a political party that would have made a person ineligible for election as a member.

“Let us give Abaribe the opportunity to withdraw his letter, and then we can consider how best to proceed with his participation in this chamber.’’

He argued that with the prevailing scenario, Abaribe was not a member of any political party, adding that he belonged to neither the majority nor the minority.

“Are we now going to create a third aisle for those who belong to neither the majority nor the minority; which is not envisaged by our rule, which the Constitution says it must not happen?

“That is not the intent of the law; without a political party to sponsor him, his position is untenable,” he said.

Responding, Abaribe insisted he remained compliant with constitutional provisions, arguing that the law recognised division within a party but did not require expulsion as a condition for defection.

Adding to the debate, Senate Minority Leader Abba Moro described the situation as a “test” of Nigeria’s democratic process, noting that such developments could ultimately strengthen the system.

“When I said that the PDP did not have divisions but rather factions, and that people were defecting, it was accepted that factions could indeed constitute divisions.

“Now, we are seeing people moving from APGA, LP to the ADC. What has happened is a very interesting aspect of democracy; it serves as a test of our democratic parties and processes.

“I believe Nigerian democracy will be enriched by the experience we are witnessing,” Moro said.

In another development, Senate Deputy Minority Leader Olalere Oyewumi defected from the PDP to the Accord Party, citing an intractable leadership crisis within his former party.

He is currently the sole senator on that platform.

The House of Representatives has also witnessed a fresh wave of defections, with 12 members switching parties in a single day.

The affected lawmakers moved from the PDP, LP, YPP, and NNPP to either the APC or ADC, citing irreconcilable differences within their former parties.

Among them, Reps. James Barka, Laori Bitrus, Zakaria Nyampa, and Kobis Thimnu (all from Adamawa) defected from the PDP to the APC.

Others, including Afam Ogene, Peter Aniekwe, and Lilian Orogbu, joined the ADC.

Civil society voices have also weighed in.

Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), Auwal Rafsanjani, argued that defections alone did not indicate a drift toward a one-party state.

According to him, while politicians may switch allegiance, political parties remain intact, and their survival ultimately depends on members who continue to believe in and promote their ideals.

“As people are decamping, some people are also sustaining those parties they left and the law has not outlawed members of any political party from defecting to other parties.

“So, I believe that those who are defecting, you cannot stop them from doing so when they make up their minds that they will leave but the political parties still exist, which is very important.

“So it is now a matter of people who believe in the ideals of those political parties to continue to propagate those parties, those ideals and also convince Nigerians why they need to support them either at local, state or national level,” he said.

At the subnational level, defections by governors have further strengthened the APC, which now controls about 31 of Nigeria’s 36 states—over 80 per cent—making it the dominant political force in the country.

Meanwhile, the PDP has been reduced to a handful of states, while the LP, APGA, and Accord Party control one state each.

Observers say this shift—largely driven by governors defecting to the APC ahead of 2027—has significantly reshaped Nigeria’s political map.

Notably, with nine senators now in its fold, the ADC has overtaken the PDP to emerge as the leading opposition party in the Senate.

For the PDP, once the dominant force in Nigeria’s political landscape, the development signals a continued decline in its legislative influence.

As political activities gradually gather momentum, pundits say one thing is clear: the road to 2027 will be shaped as much by shifting loyalties as by the enduring quest for power.