A professor of Political Science and Dean, Faculty of Social Sciences at the Federal University, Oye-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Professor Azeez Olaniyan, speaks with IMOLEAYO OYEDEYI on the likely implications of the latest decision of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to consider military option in restoring democratic governance in Niger Republic which recently experienced a coup detat.
Following its meeting, ECOWAS has decided to activate a standby force against the Niger Republic junta; what do you think will be the likely implication of this military action?
Well, we will see how it will end. I believe that if ECOWAS is serious about the decision, it will overwhelm the Nigerien military forces, whose capacity and strength is just about 30,000 armed forces, which I think cannot really withstand the combined military machinery of the region. I see this as a major threat from ECOWAS to return the country to democratic order. But we should also not forget the backing that Niger has got from Russia. So, I believe at the end of the day, we will have some kind of bloodbath in Niger if the region should go ahead with the military action against the country’s troops. Though I still doubt the readiness and intention of the ECOWAS combined forces to embark on the onslaught, the threat will no doubt force the Nigerien army to accede. In fact, I can see the possibility of the French forces surrendering to the combined ECOWAS forces, because there is no way they can withstand their strength.
But there are reports that the military government of Mali and Burkina Faso have vowed to back Niger in the fight…
You see, technically, Burkina Faso and Mali are parts of ECOWAS. And this attests to the prevailing division we have within the rank of ECOWAS itself. So, it is not going to be an easy task. That is why I said I foresee some kind of bloodbath in Niger, which is not really good for the African continent. I just hope that at the end of the day, diplomatic action and peace talks will prevail over whatever the ECOWAS military action may have caused. But don’t forget that even the activation of the constitutional order that ECOWAS has announced is also part of diplomatic action. It is more or less a threat that may force the Nigerien military junta to relinquish power.
Don’t also forget that there was also that kind of threat during the time of Yahya Jammeh in Gambia. He was a Gambian politician and former military officer, who served as president of the Gambia from 1996 to 2017. During his time, the country had just about 10,000 military forces, so he knew that the force cannot also withstand the combined force of the ECOWAS army in a military action. That was why he had to surrender and allow democratic order take its place in the country. But the backing Niger is having now both in Africa and Russia makes this case a different ball game. It just drives home the fact that there might be heavy massacre at the end of the day.
Are you saying the military action that ECOWAS has opted for is better than the diplomatic option it has been considering?
To me, force is not really better, but there are times you need to apply it to force your way out of certain uncontrollable situations. I wouldn’t say it is better, but I believe it is part of threat action to mount pressure on the junta to surrender.
But if you were to critically appraise the crisis so far, what will you say are the factors fuelling the gradual collapse of democratic governance and structure in Africa?
Well, it is quite unfortunate that we have been having a democratic disaster going on in several parts of West Africa. It is quite disturbing and it is not good for our development. Personally, I see military rule as just like a reign of armed robbers. It is a rule that is against all tenets of human rights because you just have some sets of people lording themselves on you without your consent. So, it is not good and against human nature. Militarisation has not been an issue of international significance recently, because the world has been making some kinds of considerable efforts towards having complete democratic governments all over the globe, although the issue of democratic reversal is also a global issue as there are still several instances of democratic decline in some parts of the world. But the case of West Africa is assuming a disturbing trend.
We have had a case in Burkina Faso; we also have one in Mali, and now, it is in Niger. And there are also challenges confronting democratic order in some parts of the region. So, to me, the Niger case is miserable. It is indicative of the failure of successive civilian governments in the region. It clearly shows that the democratic actors and players in the region have not been doing what they are supposed to do. This is because the people definitely like to see the dividends of democracy, but these dividends have not been forthcoming. And just as you know, when you are not doing what you are supposed to do, there is bound to be a negative reaction and consequence. This is exactly what is happening in Niger and other African countries where democratic structures have been aborted. The growing trend of democratic reversal in West Africa is an indication that the democratic order which emerged through the popular third wave of democratisation has not really brought many dividends to the people. And this is what is giving the coup plotters the opportunity and environment to launch attacks on democracy, which is very bad for the sub-region.
But what are other factors fuelling the democratic collapse?
As I have said, the people have not really seen much difference between the military reign and the democratic orders, which they had expected would improve their lives and foster better development of their country. As the people have observed, the politicians have been as bad as the military rulers. This has been a major factor. Another factor is that the culture of democracy has not really taken deep roots in the people, even among the military. It is believed that no matter the problem or breakdown of state structure in the society, the military men are not supposed to assume political governance at all, because it is not their business. They are not trained to lead or govern. They are trained to only defend the territorial integrity and sovereignty of a country. Nobody has appointed them as guardian angels. So why are they now usurping power? It just shows that the democratic culture has not taken root among them. And so the issue of civil-military relations is still problematic because the military is supposed to be sub-serving to the political order. They are supposed to operate under the democratic order. It is democracy that should be superior because the people that came through it carry the mandate of the people. So you have no right to take away the mandate. That is why the issue of democratic culture is part of the factors.
And then, we also have the growing level of poverty, which is directly related to the first factor, which is the poor performance of the democratic leadership. There is a growing level of poverty, disillusionment, and a general sense of despondency among the citizenry in West Africa. Then, you also look at the series of conflicts going on in several parts of the region, such that the states’ sovereignties are seriously being threatened. We all know the activities of terrorists in Niger and how they have taken a large expanse of land in the country. So we can say that there is a contest for the sovereignty of several states in West Africa. And this, I believe, is really giving the military power rangers the muscle and ground to take over power from any democratic government that appears powerless in the region. And then, I strongly believe the strong support being given by Russia to the coupists in Africa is another major factor. We have seen the case of Mali which has enjoyed a great number of Russian mercenaries. Now, we are also seeing the level of support the Russian government is giving to Niger. The fact is other military structures in other African countries are looking at the situation and may also be thinking of usurping power in their countries since they are quite sure of being backed up by Russia. I believe there is huge trouble ahead for democracy in Africa if the ugly trend is not strategically curbed. And that is why ECOWAS must find all means to restore democratic order in the country so far taken over by the military dictatorship.
But the reaction of the Nigerien citizenry to the military take-over has been positive; the people celebrated the junta instead of publicly opposing it. What do you make of the people’s reactions?
That is what I have said initially that the people have observed that there is no difference between the military dictatorship and the democratic government they have thought would change their lives. In fact, the people have seen a worse performance from the political leaders, which is far below what they experienced at the hands of military power in the past. So now, the people are seeing the military leaders as their messiah, believing that they will solve their problems after rescuing them from the many years of misrule of the civilians. And don’t forget that Niger has a long history of military intervention in government. But now, the people are despondent and disillusioned due to the poor performance of their deposed president. But aside from this, I still believe the democratic culture has not taken its full root among the people too. This is because if there are problems at the political level, the option one would have expected the people to take is not to go for military rule, but to root for more democracy. So the wide jubilation from the Nigerien citizenry is symptomatic of their lack of interest or vote of no confidence in the ousted president. But I still believe that at the end of the day, the people will be disappointed with the military they have apparently celebrated because this has been the trend in all African countries that have experienced military take-over. So personally, I do not expect any magic from the military, because at the end of the day, the people will be left high and dry.
How will you assess the role the Nigerian president being ECOWAS chairman has played so far in the issue?
Though the Senate has prevented President Bola Tinubu from deploying military troops to Niger to carry out a military action, I still believe the president should exercise huge caution in his approach, because it may be counter-productive. This is because a huge population of Niger is Hausa. And you have a huge presence of the Hausas in Northern Nigeria, who tend to see the Nigerien Hausas as also their brothers. So, there is a kind of cultural affiliation. This explains why the president has to take a lot of caution in deploying any tactic to resolve the matter. But to me, I believe diplomatic options and economic sanctions should be used by ECOWAS to resolve the impasse instead of activating a standby force against the stubborn Nigerien military. I think these two tactics will keep pilling pressure on the junta, which will later have no choice but to lay down their arms. The tactic can also force the military leadership to go the democratic way by announcing a transition programme immediately. But I doubt if the military coupists will allow the country’s former president to return to power even if they later opt for democratic rule. I don’t think that is feasible for now. So, I believe once ECOWAS sustains and even applies more pressure, the Niger junta will eventually give in. One fact remains that Niger strongly depends on other countries for its survival. It is at the mercy of a country like Nigeria, which supplies a great percentage of its energy needs.
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