ANALYSIS: Beyond INEC, Osun’s voter registration surge in the eyes of politics

An unsettling question hangs over Nigeria’s preparations for the 2027 general elections —and that is the quest to understand whether the very foundation of its democracy already compromised or not.

A recent surge in voter pre-registration figures, particularly in Osun State, has raised the alarm, with critics claiming the numbers are “statistically implausible” and a potential precursor to electoral manipulation.

The controversy which ignited a tense debate, pit the electoral body’s new digital efficiency against long-held suspicions about Nigeria’s political process.

Major opposition political parties have queried the authenticity of the claim by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) that the South-West accounted for the highest percentage of the pre-registration numbers in its ongoing Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise.

Also, top politicians noted that the new voters’ pre-registration figure showed massive listings in the region, specifically pointing to Osun State, compared to other parts of the country, as worrisome and portends danger for the 2027 polls.

The electoral umpire, however, dismissed the claims as unfounded, noting that the fuss around the figure was based on a lack of historical understanding of past voter registration trends.

The data behind the controversy

The INEC last Monday (August 25) announced that nearly 1.4 million Nigerians pre-registered as voters online within the first week of its CVR exercise.

According to a statement by the electoral umpire, the online pre-registration, which began on August 18, saw a total of 1,379,342 Nigerians sign up by Sunday, August 24.

The data of the voter registration released by INEC showed that young people between the ages of 18 and 34 constituted the majority of the new registrants, accounting for 860,286, or 62.37% of the total.

In terms of gender, women slightly outnumbered men, with 717,856 (52.04%) pre-registering compared to 661,846 (47.96%) males. Students made up the largest occupational group, with 374,534 registrants (27.15%), while 27,089 persons with disabilities (1.96%) also pre-registered.

While the South-West zone alone accounted for 67 percent of all pre-registrations nationwide, while in one week’s registration, Osun exceeded the total number of new voters recorded in the state over the last four years combined. The entire South East recorded just 1,998 pre-registrations. Three states—Osun, Lagos, and Ogun—make up 54.2 percent of all pre-registrations in Nigeria, while five states combined—Ebonyi, Imo, Enugu, Abia, and Adamawa—barely recorded 4,153, or 0.2 percent, while the entire North East recorded just 6.1 percent.

In the latest update, the INEC revealed that over 2.5 million Nigerians have completed their online voter pre-registration. “The exercise, which started on Monday, August 18, 2025, is now in its second week. As of Sunday, August 31, 2025, a total of 2,532,062 Nigerians pre-registered online,” the statement read. “Of this number, 1,218,482 (48.12 percent) are male, while 1,313,580 (51.88 percent) are female. The majority – 1,602,484 (63.29 percent) – are aged 18 to 34, while 647,528 (25.57 percent) are students.”

INEC online pre-registration is a process that allows eligible Nigerian citizens to begin their voter registration online before completing the process physically. It is part of the INEC’s Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise.

This system is designed to make the voter registration process more efficient and convenient by allowing citizens to provide their initial information and schedule their appointment from a computer or mobile device, thereby reducing the time they have to spend at the physical registration center.

“All online pre-registrants are required to appear physically at any of our 811 State and Local Government offices nationwide, where their fingerprints and facial biometric details will be captured. This instruction is clearly stated on the online portal,” the statement signed by the National Commissioner and Chairman of the Information and Voter Education Committee, Sam Olumekun.

“The online portal remains accessible 24/7, including weekends, enabling Nigerians anywhere in the world to initiate the registration process,” Olumekun added

Osun’s ‘statistically implausible’ surge

The root of the controversy lies in a startling comparison of the current figures with Osun’s recent electoral history.

According to the first weekly update from the INEC, the state recorded a staggering 393,269 new pre-registrations in just seven days. This figure appears to defy all precedent.

Official records from the 2022 Osun gubernatorial election show that the state’s total number of registered voters was 1,955,657. In the four years leading up to that election (2019-2023), Osun added only 275,815 new voters to its register.

In 2022 Osun governorship election, Governor Ademola Adeleke won with 403,371 (50.1%) of the total votes while Gboyega Oyetola polled 375,027 votes (46.6%) and other candidates got total 3.24% of the total votes.

Despite a record 1.95 million registered voters, less than half of the registered voters voted – a 42.16 percent – in the state in the 2022 gubernatorial election.

The voter turnout, which is a fraction of the total vote cast, with the number of registered voters, indicates a drop from the 45.74 percent recorded in 2018 and the lowest the state has recorded in its governorship election since 2003.

The integrity of INEC

The credibility of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections is under a growing cloud of suspicion following a fiery allegation by the African Democratic Congress (ADC) over voter pre-registration figures. The opposition party accused the electoral umpire of releasing “statistically implausible” data, with the spotlight firmly on a seemingly unprecedented surge in new voters from Osun State, among other South-West states.

The controversy, which has put INEC on the defensive side, centered on the sheer speed and volume of online registrations from the state.

Political undercurrents: The Tinubu-Adeleke pact at play?

Beyond technical glitches or a sudden civic awakening, political analysts are pointing to a more complex narrative of political realignment. Speculation is rife that the voter registration surge is a direct outcome of a new, pragmatic political alliance that has quietly formed between current Osun governor, Ademola Adeleke (PDP), and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC).

This alliance became public when Governor Adeleke formally adopted President Tinubu for the 2027 presidential election. In a move that surprised many, Adeleke cited the President’s Osun origin as the basis for his support. However, political observers have interpreted this as not just a strategic truce designed to secure a favorable working relationship with the Tinubu-led federal government but also a pact that may secure both the governor and Tinubu’s re-election in 2026 and 2027 respectively.

A lecturer of Political Science, Dr Mojeed Animashaun, while speaking with Tribune Online, posited that beyond the alliance, “there’s also an element of local politics in it.”

This dynamic is further complicated by the long-standing crisis between President Tinubu and his former ally, Rauf Aregbesola, who served eight years as Osun State governor and Minister of Interior under former President Muhammadu Buhari (now late).

Aregbesola’s open opposition to the APC’s candidate in the 2022 governorship election was an act many believe contributed to the party’s defeat. With Aregbesola now leading within the opposition ADC coalition, some speculate that the registration drive is a dual-purpose strategy: a show of loyalty from Adeleke’s camp to Tinubu ahead of 2027 and a deliberate effort to consolidate a new power base that systematically sidelines Aregbesola’s political structure.

The expert, while reacting to the endorsement and the allegation, said, “The fact that the president is a native of Osun state and the current governor of the state is from an opposition party, and the Governor has gone out of his way to endorse the second term ambition of the president, creates a very serious contradiction. So, the ADC is legitimised to shout because it feels that its interests are being jeopardised at two levels.”

Reactions from political divide

The controversy has drawn swift and varied reactions from across the political spectrum. The opposition PDP and its former presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar; the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Labour Party in challenging the figures.

The ADC’s public statement, signed by its National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, which warned that such anomalies could undermine the entire electoral process, has sparked a nationwide debate on the transparency of the new digital registration system.

“The anomalies become even more glaring when viewed in the context of the overall registration report. Across the six geopolitical zones, the South West alone accounts for 848,359 pre-registrations, an astonishing 67 percent of the national total. By contrast.”

The party also noted that the highest number of votes cast in any recent Osun governorship election was 827,218, adding to the puzzle of where such a massive wave of new registrants could suddenly come from.

Atiku raised concerns about the “unusually high numbers” from Osun and Lagos, stating they cast a shadow on the credibility of the entire process. This position reflects a broader skepticism from the opposition, which has repeatedly accused the electoral body of lacking transparency.

INEC, on its part, responded by insisting that the figures are not out of the ordinary when considering the efficiency of its new online pre-registration platform and the political climate.

The commission maintains that the numbers align with historical patterns seen during periods of high political mobilization and stresses that the subsequent biometric verification process will serve as a crucial safeguard to prevent any potential fraud.

However, the ADC and other stakeholders remain unconvinced. The party has called for a full forensic audit of the data, demanding the public disclosure of server logs and regional access reports for the registration portal. This demand is echoed by election monitoring groups and civil society organisations who have warned that silence on the matter could further erode public trust in Nigeria’s electoral system.

Reacting to the allegations, the polical scientist said Nigeria “should not be too surprised by the allegation made by the ADC. It’s normal in electoral competition when you feel that, at any point in time, your interest may be jeopardised, you need to speak up. But that does not say that what ADC has said is correct. You know, and we should be mindful of the fact that ADC is coming like a ridge of fire, the same way APC came in 2015. The party is using all available strategies to capture public consciousness. So, that is just one of the strategies that if we begin to make noise about certain things, people will begin to give them attention.”

He continued, stating that the issue of INEC’s independence and the people’s confidence in the commission as the nation’s electoral umpire “did not start today. It has been there all along, and one practical step that I’ve suggested by the commission was not to allow the president to have overwhelming hands in the appointment of INEC. As long as we have the president’s hands in the selection, we will continue to have this kind of crisis. If ADC comes to power, it is going to enjoy this privilege. And so, APC and PDP will also come to shout that the INEC have not been independent, but that is not an issue that will bother us, because in our political culture, Nigerians do not have confidence in anything that relates to government.”

“Whether President Tinubu changes the INEC chairman today or not, it will not diminish the confidence that the people have in INEC. We can only hope that INEC continues to uphold its status as an independent agency. So far, INEC is more credible than it was prior to 2010, having made significant improvements. We sincerely hope that they will continue to build on these enhancements for the betterment of the electoral process in Nigeria,” he concluded.

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