Adamu’s coup and an inconsequential president

Has anyone noticed VeePee Yemi Osinbajo is always gazing into the eyeball of people who engage him in conversations, even while wearing an expressionless visage? Psychology says a lot about his kind, particularly in the area of mental strength. If he was the anointed President Muhammadu Buhari feared could be terminated if unveiled early, it shows the president isn’t rounded, though of all his “friends” who jumped into the N100 million-contest, only the VeePee, looking physically vulnerable, would easily fit into the fear-mongering context created in his now-infamous interview. All shades of wrong.

Many Nigerians believed Mr Buhari prodded Professor Osinbajo into the race. Well, the facts aren’t out yet, but Senate President, Ahmed Lawan, eventually unveiled as Buhari’s consensus candidate by Abdullahi Adamu, the national chair of the governing party, isn’t anywhere near being vulnerable to assassination. Not even Rotimi Amaechi, Daura’s adopted son. Of course, it can’t be the Capo Di Tutti Capi himself, who trounced the now lame duck president. So, everything points to Osinbajo. If so, at what point did the president dump him for Lawan? Is it possible that the president never made his mind up about an anointed, despite talks of providing strong leadership? Did someone dissuade him about Osinbajo at the zero hour? Was Lawan’s project foisted on him? By who? Adamu? Northern political establishment? Was the North more worried about Osinbajo being a pastor than being just a Christian? Was it about the argument that only a Northerner could beat Abubakar Atiku, the PDP candidate from the North East? Was Goodluck Jonathan not a Christian from the South when he defeated Buhari in 2011? Was Olusegun Obasanjo not a Christian Southerner when he defeated same Buhari? Did it not take Buhari running to the South and practically seeking a Christian alliance to win in 2015? Does Tinubu, a Southern Muslim, now stand a better winning chance than Atiku Abubakar, a Northern Muslim? What if Christians in the 17 Southern states, who are in absolute majority, particularly in the South-East and South-South, decide to ignore the two leading Muslim candidates? Will the vote arithmetic that led PDP to the North and instigated Adamu’s botched coup, still count for much? Will the geopolitical voting spread that obviously informed the failed Lawan coup and Atiku’s emergence, still count for much, if Christians in the country, who mostly voted for Atiku in 2019, decide to vote a Christian candidate in Peter Obi, this time? Many questions.

If Bola Tinubu wins the presidency, it would be the first time for a Southern Muslim, which is fair enough, though justice and fairness demand it should be an Igbo man in Aso Rock, next year. Someday too, it would be a major milestone if a Northern Christian emerges the president through the ballot. You ask what about Yakubu “Jack” Gowon. He ruled Nigeria by default when One North preachment had a stronger appeal. When he attempted a return to power through the ballot, in 1992 NRC presidential primary, he didn’t even make it through the Ward level, despite being Nigeria’s longest serving leader. Shehu Shgari’s personal physician, a Northern Muslim, Dalhatu Tafida defeated him in Zaria Ward under Option A4 system. That is why selecting a running mate is a bigger challenge for Tinubu than Atiku. While for Atiku, it is about someone who can drive the South votes, it is the volatile ethno-religious issue for Tinubu. It is about pacifying the Body of Christ after Osinbajo’s loss and rewarding the mostly Fulani Muslim Northern Governors who helped him defeat the Pastor Vee-Pee. Except the Governors are ready to let go, Tinubu stands to lose the support of one of the two major voting blocs. It is his call to make.

Without doubt, the power equation in APC has been altered with the victory of Tinubu, without Buhari’s input, aside the unearned praise his media handlers, are heaping on him, for “allowing” a level-playing field. No, Pastor Femi Adesina, your boss, has no democratic credentials to flaunt over Tinubu’s victory. He never wanted him. Both of them know this fact. Nigerians know. Pastor Adesina knows. But God works in miraculous ways. Instructively, it was Tinubu’s boy, Speaker Femi Gbajabiamila that began the move to cut the governors to size, using the Electoral Act. Incidentally, it was those mini-emperors that eventually delivered his boss. A big lesson for those digging pits for others. In trying to cut the governors to size, the lawmakers, including Lawan, who could have benefitted massively from the inclusion of statutory delegates, completely cut themselves off. An attempt at a remedy was a little too late. President Buhari too, thought he was paying the lawmakers back for refusing his amendment to the Act after assenting it, by refusing to sign the statutory delegates’ inclusion, days to the convention. Of course, he didn’t envisage voting. Bad strategy. Having them in, would have given him room to maneuver over his “anointing” agenda, knowing governors would corner the elected delegates. His refusal to sign, left the field open wide for the governors to dazzle as desired. They mesmerized Buhari and Adamu into stupor.

Even at that, what President Buhari actually lost to, is nifaq. Impurity of heart. Deception. He obviously goaded the VeePee into the race, just to throw further impediments in the way of Asiwaju, and not to enthrone his Deputy. Or maybe, he wanted to humiliate the gentleman Pastor for whatever offence. Adamu was the gramophone but he would not drop the President’s name beside the Lawan consensus nonsense if he wasn’t ordered to so do. Though it has become a norm for the President to throw allies under the bus once a “consensus” goes wrong, the way Adamu was treated like a plague when the Lawan coup failed, will leave a bitter taste for anyone. But that is what you get, getting a job, like an opportunist. From a conciliator to a coupist.

The Osinbajo/Buhari saga reminds of a cantankerous Villa Chaplain who was tricked into the governorship race of his state, to rid him of the holy job. The President who talked him into it, told associates he wanted the clergy to spend all the money he illegally made from extorting the President’s visitors and favour seekers. He failed woefully at the primaries and had no job to return to. Yoruba will call it, ma jo lo mo nwo eyin e. May the sun rise for the VP again. Congrats Asiwaju.