2027 elections: Who delivers Kwara?

•As Saraki, AbdulRahman, Mustapha test might

Ahead of the Kwara State governorship election in 2027, intense jockeying within the APC and across opposition parties has triggered a high-stakes battle among political heavyweights seeking to succeed Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq. TAIWO AMODU reports on the dynamics shaping this battle.

THE governorship race in North Central state of Kwara will be nerve-racking for contestants and ordinary party faithful across the two dominant political parties in the state, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

At the centre of the unfolding power game are the entrenched political actors: incumbent governor, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, seeking to create his own power bloc, amidst the aloofness and discontent within APC, and a former Senate President, Bukola Saraki, who is smarting to regain lost ground and relevance since 2019. He is already basking in the Court of Appeal judgement which nullified the Ibadan National Convention of a faction of the party. He has sympathy for the Nyesom Wike-backed faction.

Also in the mix is the Turaki of Ilorin and Senator representing Kwara Central District, the ebullient Saliu Mustapha, seeking the exalted seat to address crunching existential challenges the average Kwara citizen is contending with.

Race of three senators?

Although the three federal legislators representing the three senatorial districts in the state in the current 10th National Assembly have expressed the intention to succeed Governor AbdulRazaq, Mustapha’s desire has a keener pep than others.

From Kwara South District, the Deputy Senate Leader, Lola Ashiru, who added a caveat to his ambition, will be the fifth to aspire to the seat.

Out of 59 years of the existence of the state, Kwara South has governed it for about 18 years. Past four governors from the District were Brig. Gen. David Bamigboye (9 years); Chief C.O. Adebayo (three months); Group Capt. Salahudeen Adebola Latinwo (one year, eight months) and Ex-Governor AbdulFatah Ahmed (eight years).

Addressing journalists last month, Ashiru, who discountenanced agitation for zoning, submitted that competence should be on the front burner. But he was quick to admit that Kwara Central District, with its voting strength, holds the ace. Checks revealed that Kwara South, however, lacks the numerical strength to convince the party stakeholders to foreclose the chance of a serious contender from Kwara Central.

Other aspirants from the southern district are a renowned neurosurgeon, Prof. Wale Suleiman, a former Chairman of APC in the state; Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa, and a former Commissioner for Agriculture, Chief Iyiola Oyedepo.

Another aspirant is the incumbent senator representing Kwara North, Sulaiman Sadiq. Speaking recently, before the just-concluded APC state congress, Senator Sadiq expressed confidence in his capacity to govern the diverse state.

He said: “My experiences span both the private and public sectors, and I believe this combination has prepared me adequately for the task …”

The federal lawmaker, whose senatorial zone has always sought the governorship seat since 1979, had a slot in 1992 when Sen. Mohammed Shaaba Lafiagi became the governor on the platform of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP). Before he emerged as the governor with the anointing of late Kwara strongman, Sen. Olusola Saraki, and the backing of Kwara Central District, there were other unsuccessful aspirants. They included a former Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Alh. Shehu Usman, and Sen. Gani. Lately, Alh. Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi joined the roll in 2023. A former female presidential aspirant, Mrs. Sarah Jibril (the first of its kind), also made history from the district.

Checks by Sunday Tribune, however, revealed that Governor AbdulRazaq, who is promoting the narrative of zoning to the North, may have pulled the rug off the feet of Senator Sadiq as he is speculated to be disposed to the Speaker of the House of Assembly, Engr. Saliu Danladi Yakubu. The supposed tilt towards Engineer Yakubu by the governor remains speculative.

In the ruling All Progressives Congress, party leaders dismissed Governor AbdulRazaq’s narrative of zoning as a façade to install his lackey as successor and, in the process, return Kwara to its traumatic years of patron-client politics of the Saraki dynasty.

The party stakeholders maintained that zoning the APC ticket to Kwara North will spell doom for the party. They cite the example of Senator Saraki, who in 2023 gave the Peoples Democratic Party ticket to Honourable Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi from Kwara North but lost to Governor AbdulRazaq from Kwara Central.

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Kwara Central: The electoral figures and the reality

This is the district with main gladiators and power brokers, including Governor AbdulRazaq and former President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki. It is also a unique district with about 50 per cent of the state’s voting strength.

In 2023, Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq of APC garnered 273,424 votes from 16 Local Government Areas to beat the PDP candidate, who scored 155,490 votes. The bulk of APC votes (105,487) came from the local governments in Kwara Central District, namely Asa (14,946), Ilorin West (46,468), Ilorin East (23,925) and Ilorin South (20,148).

The Kwara Central District figure excludes Moro Local Government Area (15,161), which is part of the Ilorin Emirate but shares electoral destiny with Kwara North Senatorial District.

Saliu Mustapha: the Turaki of Ilorin is the Senator representing Kwara Central in the Red Chamber. He was the Deputy National Chairman of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), which teamed up with other legacy parties to form the All Progressives Congress.

He played a crucial role in the merger negotiations. He was equally a former aspirant for the APC national chairmanship seat at the convention where former Nasarawa State governor, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, emerged as consensus candidate.

Checks revealed that the Chairman, Senate Committee on Agriculture, Production Services, and Rural Development, enjoys large followership across the three senatorial districts. A consummate philanthropist, Senator Mustapha has leveraged his committee position to attract federal presence to his home state.

Aside from leveraging his rich political antecedents, the electoral viability of his zone is the unique selling point for Senator Mustapha.

His Kwara Central District enjoys the numerical strength that dwarfs the other zones.

In the last general election, Senator Mustapha polled 109,823 to Senator Sadiq’s 78,015, while the Senator representing the South polled 55,966.

“It is very unlikely that the APC stakeholders will join Governor AbdulRazaq in his gamble for zoning to the North and ignore the political reality that the number to win elections resides in the Central,” a party leader told Sunday Tribune.

There are also other heavyweights in the APC from Kwara Central District seeking the ticket as successor to the incumbent AbdulRazaq.

The list includes the Director General of the National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies, Abubakar Olanrewaju Sulaiman (a defector from PDP who is relying on Ajimati’s family tie with the President’s late mother); the Director General of the National Orientation Agency (NOA), Lanre Issa-Onilu (currently involved in exploratory talks on his ambition); Dele Belgore (who was ACN governorship candidate before defecting to PDP) and Akeem Lawal (son of former Kwara Governor, late Mohammed Alabi Lawal, who may vie for a House of Representatives seat), and a billionaire, Alh. Yahaya Seriki (a mining giant). Belgore was an aspirant for the 2019 ticket, but he withdrew due to a pending case in court.

The Saraki factor

In the last three weeks, Saraki has used the Ramadan period to embark on house-to-house reconnection with the electorate in Kwara Central District. He has deployed much war chest in what appeared a battle of his political life. The number of Muslims and clerics he sent to Umrah (Lesser Hajj) during Ramadan was unprecedented. The two-term governor and former Senate President is determined to regain his lost grip on Kwara.

The 2019 general elections left him politically stranded as the P”P lost the governorship seat, the six House of Representatives seats, and three senatorial seats to the APC.

Checks revealed that Saraki will be fighting a proxy war against the incumbent governor in the battle for the soul of Kwara.

Investigation revealed that the former Senate President is divided between giving his backing to the Dan’Iya of Ilorin Emirate, Suleiman Bolakale Kawu, and former Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Prof. Ali Ahmad from Kwara Central. Saraki’s best joker for 2027 is Kawu, who will make the race tighter. But a source revealed that the Emir of Ilorin, Sulu Gambari, is wary of Kawu, the urbane politician.

“Kawu is from the Shitta ruling house in Ilorin. The experience the Emir had during the rule of late Mohammed Lawal, who was determined to upset the apple cart, is still fresh in the minds of the Emirate,” the source told Sunday Tribune.

Will Saraki seek rapprochement with President Bola Tinubu or work behind the scenes to be adopted by the Nyesom Wike faction of the PDP? The answer lies in the belly of time.

ADC and its contenders:

Amidst the looming war of attrition in the APC, the African Democratic Congress waits in the wings.

Aspirants on its platform are a former House of Representatives member, Honourable Mashood Mustapha from Kwara Central District. Former spokesperson of the House of Representatives, Honourable Zakari Mohammed, is also in the race.

Honourable Mustapha, whose aspiration enjoys the blessing of the embattled former Governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, is perceived as a thorn in the flesh of Governor AbdulRazaq.

APC ticket: Tinubu weighs options

Investigation revealed that the APC national secretariat and the Presidency will take more than a passing interest in whoever picks its ticket for the 2027 governorship race in Kwara State.

All the governors in the North Central region are in the ruling party. Incidentally, national chairman of the party, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, is also from the region. He cannot afford to let Kwara slip from his grip.

According to findings, the party national secretariat and the Presidency are overwhelmed with complaints from aspirants and stakeholders from Kwara, wary of losing the state to the opposition party if Abuja does not move in and prevail on the governor to halt his fixation on zoning, which ultimately could be politically fatal for APC.

“From the list of aspirants seeking his endorsement, Tinubu is looking in the direction of Kwara Central. The most formidable among them he believes can win the coming election is Senator Saliu Mustapha.

“In the uncertain days to wrestle power from Saraki in 2019, Senator Mustapha took the instruction to give full support to AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq.

“Leaders of the party in Kwara believe this is the time to reward party loyalty, and Tinubu will likely yield to their request.

“Aside from that is the Turaki’s acceptability, not only to the Emirate but the entire Kwara State Traditional Council. His support base also cuts across the three senatorial districts. With his NGO, the Saliu Mustapha Foundation, he has continued to impact lives and improve the living conditions of young people, the aged, women and children in several communities across Kwara State.”

Further checks revealed that the Electoral Act 2026 has precluded the indirect primary option often used brazenly by sitting governors with a vice grip on the party structures to impose their anointed choices on the party.

The new Act allows for direct primaries and the consensus option—a big relief to aspirants who believe they have genuine followership. Governors can no longer sit in the comfort of Government House and write lists of delegates for party chairman.