Winning the terror war

NO doubt, Nigeria is at a crossroads vis-à-vis the capability of the state to contend effectively with the ongoing terror war in the land. The primary responsibility of any state worth its salt is the ability to maintain peace and security. All philosophers took a dim view of the role of the state in enhancing peace and tranquility both within the state – internal security – including irredentist claims and without the state – in terms of warding off any external aggressors to do other wise is to risk the possibility of  going into extinction. No government, democratic or otherwise can afford to ignore the value of security. It has for long become clear to all that for a nation to be really secured, security of life and properties must be seen from a wholistic or comprehensive viewpoint.

It is not surprising therefore that recently, a national daily in an editorial comment noted that more than anything else, the greatest obstacle to the sustenance and consolidation of the nascent democracy is the  pervasive insecurity of life and properties as evidenced by the spate of armed robbery attacks, assassinations, ethnic and religious conflicts coupled with the seeming helplessness of security agencies to handle criminality. The aforementioned now appears to be a child’s play when the ongoing terror war spear-headed by the extra judicial killing of Mohammed Yusuf, his deputy and the suspected financier of the Boko Haram sect as a result of one week of violent brutalities that cost 800 lives with over 4,000 people made homeless in 2009. Since that time the Nigerian state has no respite rather Boko Haram transformed into an insurgent adding long list of new set of terrorists such as the ISIS, ISWAP and the rampaging Fulani herdsmen.

The jihadists, who want to create their own Islamic caliphate in Nigeria, have killed thousands and forced millions to flee their homes in the country’s north-east since 2009! The snag however is that ever since Nigerian state has demonstrated helplessness over time in winning the terror war. Niccolo Machiavelli – a war strategist – was of the view that ‘the chief foundation of all states, whether new, old or mixed are good laws and good arms … there cannot be good laws where there are no good arms and where there are good arms there must be good laws’. Machiavelli went on in his all-time book The Prince to postulate further that ‘the best ordinances in the world will be despised and trampled underfoot when they are not supported, as they ought to be, by military power. Thomas Hobbes too wrote that ‘covenants without sword are but words. The dilemma is twin in Nigeria’s case, no good laws and no good arms! Nigeria is a weak state where laws are made but hardly enforced or selectively enforced. Sadly, many engage in impunity because of who they are and where they come from.

Rather than the state to regain its strength terrorism has been rationalized on various grounds from small arms proliferation, pervasive culture of poverty in the North which World Bank put at as all-time high as 87% in the North; criminal impunity by the state and extraneous factor like the political crisis in far away Libya which according to Mr. President necessitated the dissidents to move to Nigeria causing mayhem as if this is a good reason. Could miscreants move from Nigeria to Libya and cause mayhem without being detected and punished? Methink this is unthinkable. Such explanation could only come from hapless political leaders leading the war. Meanwhile, Nigerians are not bereft of ideas in terms of winning the war. Numerous suggestions from experts and public analysts have been coming from diverse sources to assist public policy makers most especially the Armed Forces to defeat the terrorists. The suggestions range from the complex, theoretical to even the mundane. Let me highlight some of the ideas so far before I come up with a three-prong way out.

In a memorandum presented to the Senate ad hoc Committee on Nigeria’s security challenges, Ona Ekhomu, a private sector security expert, averred that Federal Government should adopt ‘threat vulnerability integration in re-engineering the security architecture of the country. The TVI according to him involves tactical threat analysis, strategic threat analysis and vulnerability assessment – to solve the nation’s current security challenges. He came up with this after concluding that the current security architecture of Nigeria as it is no doubt is ‘outdated, antiquated, antediluvian and patently ineffective’. He went further to adduce a number of reasons for the fresh Boko  Haram attack in Kaduna State on February 12, 2020 which resulted in the burning to death of a family of 16 persons, that was caused by ‘observable and exploitable vulnerabilities which included: absence of guardians (Military, Police, Vigilantes etc); absence of capable guardians (proper arms and equipment for the security agents), no air raid alarm, no rapid response, no force multipliers, impunity on the part of the bandits amongst others. This may sound theoretical, but all these are known to our security chiefs having attended several courses both at home and abroad.

The real problem lies with the capacity of the state to make all do the right thing at the right time. For the Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, his recipe a very simple one: more recruitment into the Armed Forces. The governor of Borno State, Prof. Babagana Umara Zulum, too supported this idea of more recruits of both officers and men which for security experts may be a suicide bid. Terror war is never won by the number of soldiers but rather technology. Zulum also went on to suggest that the recruits should be from his state perhaps with the thinking that they know the geography of the terror war-torn state. What a desperate solution without taking into consideration federal character principle that guides recruitment into the Armed Forces! The governor has also called for prayers and fasting to defeat the insurgents! This is mundane in 21st century warfare. Another ludicrous solution by a parliamentarian is amnesty for the criminals which ordinarily does not add up; when soldiers are already demoralized, and  captured insurgents are being released with the hope that they could be reintegrated into the society when purged of the radical tendencies in them. Perhaps the latest in the barrage of suggestions is the call for the sack of service chiefs for ineptitude, which is not even the solution anyway.

Considering the debilitating effect of the terror war on the country which is already telling on us all with the US review of visa entry to America, the volume of direct foreign investment that is at its lowest ebb and battered foreign image; Nigeria cannot but think outside the box as quickly as possible. Winning terror war is no joke anywhere in the world. One can not easily forget the idea of the late strong man of Libyan politics – Muammar Ghaddafi – that Nigeria can not be prosperous and be peaceful if not allowed to disintegrate into Moslem North and Christian South! His wild suggestion may not be unconnected with the inability of our leaders to think aloud and proffer pragmatic solutions. Thus, one may not rule out the role of international comprador as his suggestion portends in the whole messy terror war in the country with his ludicrous assumption as if there are no Christians in the North.

How do we wriggle out of this? First, the Nigerian state as it is now is too weak to fight terrorism. A weak state where laws are made but either not enforced or selectively enforced is unfortunate. Few days ago, Chad executed ten members of the Islamic militant group terrorizing their country after a three-day trial while Nigeria is contemplating amnesty and demoralizing her soldiers! Only God knows how many soldiers and officers had been ambushed and slaughtered by the terrorists for a bloc to be calling for amnesty for the insurgents! Let the law takes its due course the table will definitely turn against the nihilists who derive joy in inflicting pain on the hapless Nigerians. To do this, the security apparatus must be rejigged and as quickly as possible. Not only that the level of excruciating poverty in the land is absurd. Nigeria is a country flowing with milk and honey, but brazen larceny/corruption has eaten deep into the marrows of an average Nigerian. It is one thing to budget heavily for the Military/Police, it is another thing for the money to be released and be used for the purposes for which it was budgeted ab initio. The league effect of anti-corruption war will be technically releasing fund to develop education sector in the North from the statutory allocation to Northern states. With better living condition and access to basic education in the North it may be reasonably assumed that the terror war may be won in the not too distant a future.

Finally, the greatest obstacle to winning the terror war no doubt is the techno-economic structure of the Nigerian society. No country that is as technologically backward and economically dependent has ever won terror war so quickly as expected by Nigerians. The best bet for Nigeria is to leverage on technology in pronto. Developed countries that knows the debilitating impact of terrorism vis-à-vis internal displacement cum refuge/migration problem will be ready to assist; our leaders should condescend and reach out to them. No country can win terror war without technology; it is not about the size of the army. The twin solution is the economy that should be expanded to be able to acquire the technology. Developed countries are never at ease when talking of technological transfer. You pay for it or develop yours. Locally, we need to grow our technological base for the Armed Forces to be as effective as expected and fight corruption to a standstill. Nothing is as heinous a crime as diversion of money meant for arms purchase to something else. This twin solution will expectedly raise the morale of our fighting soldiers.

• Ojo, Associate Professor of Comparative Politics and former Chief of Staff to the Oyo State governor, is Head of the Department of Political Science, University of Ilorin

YOU SHOULD NOT MISS THESE HEADLINES FROM NIGERIAN TRIBUNE

Buy and read digital replicas of your TRIBUNE titles by subscribing through E-VENDING

Pantami Used Armed Officers To Evict Our Staff, Abike Dabiri Alleges
The chairman, Nigerians in the Diaspora Commission (NIDCOM), Abike Dabiri-Erewa, has alleged that the Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Dr Isa Pantami used armed security men to eject NIDCOM from the offices which they occupied in the NCC building located at Mbora District… Read full story

Naira Set To Rally As CBN, ABCON Finalise BDCs’ Resumption Of Forex Sale
The naira is facing its greatest risk from the COVID-19 pandemic as currency speculators continue to make spurious demand for dollar with the hope of making good returns from the rising gaps between… Read full story

MONDAY LINE: Buhari’s Fifth May 29
MUHAMMADU Buhari’s first coming was from December 31, 1983 to August 27, 1985. It was a period of famine and pestilence; of queues for coins and corn and of lean liberty. His second coming will be five years old on Friday. Can he sit back and use his tongue to count his teeth? What has changed between his past… Read full story

China Tells US To Stop Wasting Time In Coronavirus Battle
The US should stop wasting time in its fight against the coronavirus and work with China to combat it, rather than spreading lies and attacking the country, the Chinese Government’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, said on Sunday. The Sino-US ties have nosedived since the outbreak of the new coronavirus… Read full story

The Continued Harassment Of Essential Workers
NOT a few Nigerians were miffed by the reports of arbitrary arrests and continued harassment of essential workers by the police immediately after the recent extension by the Federal Government of the partial lockdown and curfew imposed across the country to curtail the spread of the Covid-19 global pandemic. Initially,many thought that the police operatives were at it again, acting outside their briefs for pecuniary gain… Read full story

Subsidy Removal: Those Who Can’t Fix Refineries Should Give Way ― NLC
The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has warned that the Federal Government should not talk about; or contemplate fuel price increase; even as it stated that subsidy is a cover-up for inefficiency and corrupt in the system. The NLC gave this position, as the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association… Read full story

The Looming Fiscal Crisis And The Wisdom Of Awolowo
In terms of financial wizardry and sheer genius in economic statecraft, the only master I bow to is the legendary sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo. I believe he was an extraordinary statesman and an economic genius to boot. Former Head of State General Yakubu Gowon once observed: “If you know of a man greater… Read full story

COVID-19: Curfew Now 8pm To 5am In Oyo
The Oyo State COVID-19 Task Force, on Sunday, relaxed the existing curfew imposed on the state in respect of the ravaging COVID-19 pandemic to between 8 pm and 5 am. A statement by the Chief Press Secretary to Governor Seyi Makinde, Mr Taiwo Adisa, confirmed that the decision was reached at the… Read full story

Adeboye Speaks On How Coronavirus Will End, Urges Nigerians Not To Panic
The General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG), Pastor Enoch Adejare Adeboye on Sunday said only a big miracle would make the deadly coronavirus pandemic leave the world completely. Pastor Adeboye stated this on Sunday during a live broadcast to his members on Dove… Read full story

Southeast Governors Meet In Enugu, Explain Delay In Implementation Of Zonal Security Outfit
GOVERNORS of the Southeast geo-political zone on Sunday explained why they are foot-dragging on the commencement of their zonal security outfit, saying that the Inspector-General of Police is not keeping with the agreement they reached with him… Read full story

No Rift Between Makinde And I ― Oyo Deputy Governor
Contrary to speculation of a cold war between him and his boss, Oyo State Deputy Governor, Raufu Olaniyan, has said there is no rift whatsoever. Olaniyan described the relationship between him and Governor Seyi Makinde as “robust and cordial… Read full story

Buhari Tasks Farmers On Massive Food Production, Says ‘No Money For Food Importation’
President Muhammadu Buhari has challenged Nigerian farmers on the need to embark on massive productive agricultural activities this farming season as Nigeria has no money for food importation. The president gave the challenge shortly after observing this year’s Eid prayer alongside members of… Read full story