North’s insecurity caused by poverty, ignorance, unemployment — Anthony Sani

Member, Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) and former national secretary-general of the pan-northern organisation, Anthony Z. Sani, says Nigeria has already undergone restructuring even as he bares his mind on the raging wave of insecurity in the country, fallouts of the recent party primaries, insinuations that Nigeria has become a failed state, and other vexed issues. He spoke with KUNLE ODEREMI.

THE parties have had their primaries to determine their candidates though not without certain hiccups and spiralling protests across the board. So, generally speaking, what can you make of the road to the 2027 general election that is becoming more or less frightening and precarious?

Why use the words frightening and precarious to depict challenges which confront our democracy? I expect our media to encourage Nigerians to know that with hard work, we shall overcome. The media should encourage the public to be resilient and prevail instead of acting as pessimists. Yes, politics for the coming elections has started and party primaries have ended. That all the political parties have challenges of internal democracy does not make the elections frightening and precarious. We should be concerned with how best to improve our practices of democracy, instead of curtly dismissing it. As we do so, we must not forget the fact that being a third world country is not a matter of choice but of capacity.

But, the ding-dong within the political space raises a lot of concerns to other stakeholders in the Nigerian Project. The question remains why does the scenario that precedes major elections seem to re-enact itself at the dawn of every national cycle?

The scenario repeats itself in every circle of elections precisely because Nigerians have not changed their attitudes and values. Until voters change their attitudes and values against corruption, the practice of Cash-For-Peerage would not stop. But if voters stop regarding Nigeria as a TRUST FUND STATE that is financed by oil wealth which is not the result of hard work, and decide to make judicious use of their democratic rights and make votes count, the ensuing leaders would be accountable; and our practices of multiparty democracy would improve.

We have just marked another Democracy Day on June 12, after the forced exit of the military from political power. Yet, there is a sustained spectre of social vices and violent crimes that characterised the era of military dictatorship, which is now aggravated by banditry, abductions, kidnappings, and insurgency that have steadily spread to particularly the South-West. Do these stubborn growths and the grave situation therefrom affirm what some observers see as the failure of the Nigerian project, and what do you mean, sir?

Violent crimes did not start in the North. They started in the South. Recall the era of Oyenusi, which terrified people, and later militant activism in the Niger Delta. Insurgency emerged in the North-East around 2009. And if all these did not bring about Nigeria being on its knees, the violent crimes in the South-West would not make Nigeria a failed state, more so that the government is struggling hard to put an end to violent crimes across Nigeria. All Nigeria needs to do is consciously direct efforts to make desires possible and then actual.

Before now, political parties largely preferred elected delegates deciding who emerged as candidates for elections, an exercise considered to encourage all forms of inducements. Today, there’s a raging cacophony over the outcome of primaries conducted under the consensus and/or direct option. What can you say about the character of the parties, their main actors and stakeholders?

Because the delegate system pushes our democracy towards plutocracy, the direct system is expected to allow all party members to vote and produce candidates, thereby owning the candidates. But, because of our attitudes and values, which are driven by collapsed national ideals and moral values, the direct system has not been managed well by the political parties, hence the complaints by the aggrieved in almost all the political parties. This situation clearly shows the problems of Nigeria are not the system, but due to our collapsed national ideals and moral values, which are sine qua non for socioeconomic development.

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A major fallout of the conduct of primaries is the fresh wave of movements across party lines by prominent politicians in a bid to run for elective public office in 2027. What kind of paradigm shift do you envisage the emerging realignment, emergence of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC) as key opposition parties will bring about as they have unequivocally declared the All Progressives Congress (APC) administration an unmitigated disaster since the days of the late President Muhammadu Buhari?

I do not expect any major shift in the current realignment of political forces, precisely because history is about to repeat itself. You would recall that in 2023, the opposition split into the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and Nyesom Wike’s G5. As a result, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) said Bola Tinubu rose from the ashes of opposition split. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Today, the opposition has split into factions of PDP, ADC, and NDC. What is more, most of the governors have defected to the ruling APC. Besides the split of the opposition, there is the issue of old wine in new bottles. The wine cannot taste differently. Furthermore, as long as the politics of identity called zoning holds sway, the North would expect to produce the president in 2031 after serving eight years in the South. The South, in part, would also try to complete the eight years. Anything that would disrupt zoning is unlikely to be tolerated by both the North and the South, who seem agreeable on zoning. That may explain why Peter Obi has pledged to be President for only one tenure of four years. But, unfortunately, nobody can trust Peter Obi’s pledge to serve one tenure, especially when regard is paid to the fact that politics is a group mission, not an individual enterprise. What is more, because Peter Obi has not condemned the activities of the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB) and Nnamdi Kanu, most Nigerians believe President Peter Obi would play Gorbachev, who presided over the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Also, because of the politics of zoning, both the North and the South would not vote for former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who suffered the same fate when Bola Tinubu defeated him in the North in 2023. It was all because the North did not want to create problems for the zoning… That also explains why some of us believe the odds are in favour of President Bola Tinubu, not necessarily due to his performance, but because of zoning. I do not see the wisdom of voting for Peter Obi. This is because he has not espoused any alternative course of action away from what President Bola Tinubu has done, however flawed… Peter Obi has promised to do one tenure in order to respect zoning so the South can complete the eight years by 2031 after Buhari’s eight years. One tenure for him to do what differently? But can the North trust Peter Obi’s pledge? Certainly not. Given Peter Obi’s attitude to the heinous activities of IPOB and Kanu, which reeks of empathy for IPOB, most Nigerians may not trust that President Peter Obi will not play Gorbachev who presided over the collapse of the Soviet Union. As for Atiku, the problem is zoning which seems agreeable to the nation. That accounts for why the North did not allow Atiku to defeat Bola Tinubu in 2023. Left to the North, it should not matter the colour of the cat provided it can catch the rats. But the South used the annulment of June 12 and morally blackmailed the North into accepting it, and is not in a hurry to jettison it. That is why 2027 will be a repeat of 2023.

The entire North is battling an amalgam of grave challenges in all facets of life, especially in the basic needs of man, going by Maslow’s theory. Why does the North remain wholly devastated by poverty, the out-of-school-children crisis, banditry and insurgency and other shades of killings? Isn’t the trend more about leadership failure and dogmatism?

Would you say the insecurity in the South-West has to do with failure of leadership? The insecurity in the North is stoked by poverty, ignorance and unemployment. That explains why the United Nations always advises the affected states to address the underlying causes of insecurity, since hard power of military might alone cannot put an end to insecurity posed by insurgency, banditry, kidnapping and armed robbery.

The North-Central zone has become what could be described as the hotbed of killings, abductions for ransom, banditry, herder/farmer clashes, and kidnappings. Why has the unfortunate trend almost become a way of life, whereas there are legitimate and elected state actors empowered and mandated to guarantee the sovereignty of the State?

The insecurity in the country is not the exclusive preserve of the North-Central zone, but exists across the whole land. That is why it is said by some people that there is a swarm of locusts across the land, but it seems the pests are not known, hence we are unable to develop the appropriate pesticides. We, therefore, need to know the pests in order to determine the appropriate pesticides.

Don’t you think it is high time Nigeria really closed its international borders, particularly in the northern axis, to check the infiltration and influx of insurgents, bandits, and other hardened criminals from neighbouring countries? The general opinion is that Niger, Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, etc., serve as routes for fighters in the Sahel Region to sneak into Nigeria and wreak havoc of unimaginable proportions.

I am aware of the fact that ISIS has plans to make the Sahel its permanent home, due to weak governments. I am also aware of the fact that ECOWAS protocols stand in the way of closing the borders, hence the proliferation of ISIS-inspired terrorist groups in West Africa. But if closure of borders is possible and would reduce the influx of foreigners and thus reduce violent crimes, so be it!

What would you recommend as the best option to tame the rising scale of violent crimes that has imperilled and almost destroyed the fabric of national unity, oneness, trust in Nigeria as a sovereign State, as well as jeopardised ethnic, religious and mutual trust and confidence among the peoples of this country?

The effective measures against the prevalent insecurity are for government to prioritise its containment by having enough trained and equipped security personnel, who are well-motivated to secure the nation, while efforts are being made to address the underlying causes which include poverty, ignorance and unemployment.

What do you regard as the core gains of the North that has led the country for more years than the South in Nigeria’s history as an independent State?

You are not fair to the North when you ask such questions. Whatever the gains of the nation under the watch of northern leaders are also the gains of the South. Such questions by some of you ignore the fact that the military governments were not in a representative capacity. That may explain why the military regime could annul the elections won by Chief M.K.O. Abiola for whom the North voted massively. And I dare say the South has been at the helm in the current democracy more than the North, yet there is nothing to suggest the South is different from the North in terms of quality of leadership besides the advantages of earlier access to Western education and nearness to the ports.

What is the North likely to benefit from if it is able to produce a president of northern extraction next January and why?

I am not sure that is a serious concern for an average northerner who is concerned about taming insecurity in order to enable him to go to his farm. To the elite, there is nothing really special in the North producing the president in 2027. Were that the concern of the northerners, the North would not have allowed Bola Tinubu to defeat Atiku in the North, or the North would not have allowed M.K.O. Abiola to defeat Bashir Tofa even in Kano. The North is more concerned about even distribution of access to national resources by way of appointments, projects and contracts.

Talking about the upsurge in the abduction of schoolchildren and their teachers by armed gangs, what does it portend for the future of formal education, leadership and the future of Nigeria? What’s the way out of the quagmire?

I suspect those who abduct children are disciples of Boko Haram which regards Western education as taboo. The terrorists want to use the abduction of schoolchildren to frighten parents from sending their wards to school. That way, their aim would be achieved. The way out is to ramp up both punitive and preventive measures in the fight against insecurity.

Beyond the demand for state police and more vigilance groups to tackle the menace of insecurity ravaging the land, are you still not convinced that the authorities should have a deep reflection on the sustained call for the existing convoluted federal arrangement and set the necessary action in motion to restructure Nigeria to a more congenial, realistic, effective and workable configuration based on public clamour and demand? Please explain in detail because people say there is need for transparency and accountability in governance.

To explain what? This country has been restructured geopolitically, by forms of government and economic reforms several times. As a result, some of us do not believe any further restructuring would be the magic wand. President Bola Tinubu is doing some forms of restructuring, yet there are complaints. Amotekun has not contained insecurity in the South-West.

Some Nigerians have openly declared their loss of faith in the Nigerian project, hence the rising Japa and brain drain syndromes, coupled with the increase in the number of groups agitating for regional independence, a loose federation or whatever that will ensure each unit of the federation can progress at their own pace and encourage healthy competition. Are you not persuaded by these arguments which border on the fragility of the existing arrangement and why, sir?

I said this country has been restructured severally. Like in America, we tried a confederation with a weak centre which could not hold a diverse country with fissiparous tendencies together, and so it was jettisoned in favour of a national government that is appropriately balanced by state-level power.

America lost over 14,000 lives to gun-related violence last year. But you do not hear Americans say “America is finished” the way we write off the country when there is a challenge. Every country has its challenges which it tries to manage for performance. In the 1970s, Indians, people from the Philippines and Egyptians had problems and came to Nigeria. As soon as their economies improved, they went back home. I am sure when the economy improves, there would be no Japa anymore. I believe those who hanker for restructuring to enable different parts to develop at their pace are those who want Nigerians to live as if they are in different countries, where some are on the cutting edge, while some others are on the knife’s edge of survival. I believe there is need for a cultural renaissance in order to revamp national ideals and moral values, which have collapsed.