Is Tinubu up for an upset? (1)

Politicians who will endure must be loved and hated with equal passion. His lovers, the base; his haters, the debased. When Hillary Clinton, infamously referred to Donald Trump supporters as a basket of Deplorables in the heat of 2016 race which she gifted the former president, she inadvertently helped in rallying and cementing the support base of the avant garde Washington disrupter. Proudly Deplorable shirts flooded everywhere. Now the Deplorables have become the nucleus of Trumpism.

Today in Nigeria, about four politicians command such deep sentiment and resentment: Olusegun Okikiola Obasanjo, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, Muhammed Buhari and Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Of the quartet, only Tinubu hasn’t been president and he is now seeking to be properly admitted to the Club. Of the four also, Obasanjo is the most charismatic, followed by Tinubu, then Jonathan and Buhari, in that order.

It is difficult to say who is richer between Obasanjo and Tinubu, but the latter is the bigger spender, in the mould of MKO and the Ota-farmer and Buhari are in the league of their own, when araldite (the stingy ones) are being lined up. Jonathan’s forever smile masks too many things about his private life, not yet known to the Nigerian public. Maybe, he would be closely scrutinised this time, if he miraculously regains the presidency.

Atiku Abubakar isn’t here, because Nigerians rarely get excited about his presidency prospects. The last time he supposedly ran a brilliant race, in an election he was thought to have been cheated out, it was because President Buhari wasn’t just a viable option, the same way Jonathan was viewed, four years, before the Buhari meltdown.

To confirm Atiku isn’t really an issue, though he is actively seeking Aso Rock again, the Nigerian public is rarely discussing him, while Tinubu’s undeclared presidential interest dominates the entire information highway. To Jagaban’s credit, he hasn’t only sought and got national attention and consciousness, he has found a firm place in the village square of Nigerian politics, coping with both his admirers and haters in equal proportion.

Despite an uninspiring presidential run of five years, Jonathan is still a home-boy, not worshipped by his people (South-South and South East), but still adored at home. He qualifies as a prophet with domestic honour. The searing hatred for him pre-2015 in the North is also dissipating. After all, once the proverbial thief dropped his loot and fled, what else, if not an overkill. In fact, the way fate is playing out with his life, North might be pouring a full basket of votes for him again, if their “idol,” endorses him.

Currently, President Buhari’s shrine in the North is shrinking in space and halo. But his past deliverables to his people have made it impossible yet, for them, to adopt the orisa bo le gbemi total disavowal of the libations that go into keeping the sacredness of his groove. Some “miscreants” tried playing Gideon for their Northern folks during the stoning incident, but Bubu is still their champion.

Yoruba race and Obasanjo have a foundational distaste for each other that borders on inability of one to force the other to its knees. Oh, I am aware the pronoun, shouldn’t be sync with the name of a person, but with Obasanjo, anything should pass because practically nothing is sacrilegious to him, except when in mischief mode, like offering full prostrate to Ooni of Ife, fresh from installation and in midst of a burgeoning personality smear that was quickly nipped. OBJ doesn’t obey rules, including the ojo a ku la n’dere stance of Yoruba, to honour the dead. In death, he didn’t stop “blowing” Kashamu Esho. Breaking syntactic rules on Baba’s head should also pass here.

Tinubu started his romance with the Oduduwa clan as a mini messiah and until 2014 when he unequally yoked to become a national leader of all title and no mantle, his obvious excesses and weaknesses were tolerated. Where Obj and co. didn’t get a second chance for redemption, Tinubu, with lesser pedigree compared to the Ota man, went away with crass demagoguery on multiple occasions as a local/regional leader.

Then the bubble burst for him. Yoruba will say, ewe sun ko(powerful hypnotising charm lost its potency). Suddenly, the “saviour” became the one whose poop community members do not want to behold on dumpsite. Unlike Buhari and Jonathan, who are still wanted at home, the talk practically everywhere in the South West now is how the Aso Rock cap doesn’t fit Tinubu again. And unlike Obasanjo, who is still a darling of the Northern conservative ruling class and with strong footing in the Eastern flank, Tinubu is practically forcing himself on the North, like an orphan, who was never up for adoption consideration.

Also, for a while now, his politics and Ndigbo have become day and night. He decimates their interest wherever he sees one and the Jews of Nigeria always take special satisfaction away from inflicting electoral misfortune on any political leaning(s), bearing Tinubu’s trademark jeun soke. Now that the talk about equity, justice and proper implementation of the 3Rs is inching Ndigbo the closest to occupying Aso Rock, their perennial foe, Bola Tinubu, has suddenly become the front-runner. A spoiler doesn’t come clearer. However, there is an old play-book in the hands of Tinubu’s inner men which delivered a joker for Obasanjo in 1999. Now, you hear things like, “Yoruba didn’t vote for Obasanjo in 1999 and he became president,” from them.

Without doubt, Tinubu is striving to get the North to own him and once he looks like their project and rejected back home, like Obj, he should be massively supported up North and the scattered and scattering votes from South West and South South powering him to Villa. Brilliant projection.

Political North, from time immemorial, has shown it isn’t a friend of anyone, except itself and alliances that would make it a junior, beggarly partner don’t usually sail with it. In boardroom politics and business battles, the one with a monopoly always comes into negotiation from the position of strength. If Tinubu is saying to the North, “here I am, send me,” and majority of Yoruba keep him away, the game plan, with significant modifications, may just deliver.

To be continued.

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