The battle for the soul of Edo State seems to have entered another stage, given intense intrigues and ongoing realignment of forces ahead party primaries. KUNLE ODEREMI and SUNDAY ADEPOJU examine some issues that may influence the 2020 election in the state.
It is increasingly becoming well-defined some key factors that are bound to shape the 2020 governorship election in Edo State. With the main combatants not ready to yield ground on their individual and class interests, ongoing alliances and realignments of forces comes in another scene in the script being acted by the parties and the gladiators
A similar election in 2016 was preceded by combined subterfuge and theatrics that almost turned bloody, and the emerging scenario seems to dwarf or vitiate the 2016 experience in a state regarded as among the most volatile in the country.
Then, there was seething anger in the main parties: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), with their leaders at each other’s throat. At dawn of his eight-year tenure, Adams Oshiomhole became the Man Friday of Godwin Obaseki, in the former’s quest to install his successor. Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, the former Secretary to the Edo State government, was the standard-bearer of the PDP in the race to Denis Osadebe House. He came with much pedigree, including having been the director-general, of former President Goodluck Jonathan Presidential Campaign Organisation in the state in 2015.
The statistics for the governorship election in the 2016 poll indicated that the state had a population of 3,218,332; number of registered voters as 1,925,105; with 192 wards; the number of polling units as 2,627, while the number of voting points was 4,011. As expected, the governorship election turned out to be a tough battle especially between the PDP and APC. There were complaints about vote-buying, intimidation of the opposition parties and their candidates, as well as disruption of the campaign plans of rival parties, with little issues of interest to spur voters, who were instead intimidated by the factor of personalities.
The dizzying tension that predated the poll was caused by warring factions during party primaries, with the attendant possibility of violence which eventually became a major excuse by INEC to postpone the election from September 10, 2016 to September 28 in 2016. Therefore, the police authorities compelled all the 19 candidates for the election to sign a Peace Accord in the presence of representatives of INEC, Department of State Services and other key stakeholders. In spite of the shambolic acts of the political gladiators, the INEC declared the standard-bearer of the APC, Godwin Obaseki, as the winner of the poll, having satisfied the requirement of the law and scored the highest number of votes. The returning officer for the election, Professor Kayode Soremekun, said Obaseki polled 319, 483 votes to defeat his closest rival, Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the PDP, who scored 253, 173 votes, with the between them as 66,310 votes. With the realignments going on, analysts believe some of the dynamics may have changed. Permutations on the voting pattern across the state have either emerged or now based on current realities pertaining to the choice of camps by perceived kingmakers, godfathers in the power calculus.
Political configuration
Going by the performance of the PDP and the APC in the state in the previous elections, the recent crisis in the state chapter of the APC seems to pose a threat the party’s bid to retain the governorship seat. During the 2016 elections in Edo, Governor Obaseki, on the platform of the APC polled 319,483, representing 52.9 per cent of the votes cast to defeat the PDP’s Osagie Ize-Iyamu scoring 253,173 representing 41.28 per cent.
In the 2019 general election, however, the performance of the APC waned in such elections despite that Edo is the home of the APC national chairman, Comrade Oshiomhole. For instance, at the 2019 presidential election in the state, the PDP’s candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, defeated Muhammadu Buhari, of the APC with 275,691 votes and 267,842 votes respectively.
The 2019 results of the senatorial elections in the state gave the PDP upper hand in the race. Out of the three senatorial seats, the PDP got two while the APC had one. Senator Clifford Ordia of Edo Central senatorial district polled 56,048 votes to defeat his APC opponent, John Inegbedion, who had 49,168 votes. That represented a difference of 6,880 votes. In Edo South senatorial district, PDP’s Mathew Orhogide was re-elected, defeating Patrick Obahiagbon of the APC with 121, 957 votes. However, Senator Francis Alimikhena of the APC won Edo North with 117,783 votes. He defeated Abubakar Momoh of the PDP who only got 80,752 votes.
Just like in the Senate, out of the nine House of Representatives slots, five went to the PDP, while four went to the APC. The following constituencies were won by the PDP: Esan North-East/Esan South-East, Oredo, Esan Central/West/Igueben, Ovia South/West-OviaNotrth/East and Egor/Ijpoba-Okha. For the APC, the four constituencies won include: Orhionmwon/Uhunmwode, Akoko/Edo, Etsako East/West/Central and Owan West/East.
Power brokers
A number of political groupings are now emerging that are keen to exploit popular disillusionment with the APC and PDP. They are raising awareness of the power that citizens hold, and calling for an end to political impunity by encouraging the electorate to hold political leaders to account. Before, Obaseki announced his resignation from the APC, many elders of the party had openly condemned the perceived move to witch-hunt him due to his re-election bid on the ticket of the party. The immediate past national chairman of the party, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, had consistently warned against the grave implication of the injustice being meted out to the governor. Similarly, another national leader of the party of the APC, Price Tony Momoh, had stridently cautioned that the move to punish out Oyegun out of the party portended danger. On Monday, the leader of the South-South Region and elder statesman, Chief Edwin Clark, re-echoed the warning with an advice to Obaseki to defect to the PDP if the APC refused him its governorship ticket.
Incumbency power
It is in two ways: at the centre and at the state level. The APC will be poised in retaining the lever of power by possibly using the power of incumbency to rally support for the candidate of the party. Similarly, the governor still enjoy the privilege of office which could serve in a good stead. He will be relying on massive support from the harvest of new political allies to firm up his grip on the mechanisms necessary for winning elections. There were incidents of the major actors using inflammatory language, religious, ethnic and sectional sentiments to hoodwink the electorate during the campaign for the 2016 election. Besides, alleged violations of campaign regulations became pronounced, as the opposition accused the governing party of abusing the power of incumbency.
External forces
The conspiracy of external forces characterising the Edo poll cannot be ruled out, due to the intrigues playing out at the moment. The interest of the power-that-be, the ruling APC and its national leadership to hold tenaciously to the state constitutes part of the external influence. The other factor is the opposition, which controlled all but one senatorial district in the state. It also controls all but one the six states in the South-South. The five is bound to team to snatch Edo from the APC.
New trend
More categories of voters have since joined the voting population after Nigeria returned to civil 21 years ago. They consistently contribute in reshaping the nation’s electoral configuration in terms of voting pattern and sustenance of public awareness. While women remain at the top of the voting population over time, the teeming youths have joined the fray, redefining the direction of election, issues and campaigns. With their increasing capacity made possible by any governor, these two critical mass could influence the Edo poll.
Party agents
The action of the agents is also important. Their integrity matters because it is on record that many of them were accused of colluding with security agents to subvert the will of the people during elections. According to a report by an observer team, “in a few polling units it was noted that agents were violent and aggressive either towards INEC officials who wanted to be impartial in their work, or voters who did not want to be influenced or observers accredited to observe the election process.”
Alignment
There are likely to be further realignment of forces after the candidates would have emerged. Some aggrieved politicians will switch camps either because of ambition or primordial factors. The quality of such defecting politicians could contribute to the direction the pendulum, might swing at the poll. From their antecedents so far, none of the parties is insulated from such lack of ideological principle and shortcomings. Nonetheless, the governors are bound to play a dominant role and function in many ways before and after the election proper. Because they are in charge of the ‘food chain,’ the governors will mobilise massive logistics for their parties’ candidates leveraging their influence cross board.
Ethnicity
Edo is among the most heterogeneous states in the country. So the issue of synergy during elections at the major elections, especially where there is no common political affiliation, is neither here nor there.. The voting pattern is usually a reflection of the political affiliation of political godfathers and kingmakers, as the traditional institution.
Insecurity
Insecurity remains a serious problem in Edo and other states in the Niger Delta. The activities of militant groups have not fizzled out in the zone, despite the heavy presence of military supervision of oil installation to stave off economic saboteurs. Thus, security conditions at pre- and post-election period remain critical. The comportment and neutrality of the security personnel will have immediate and far-reaching factor in the poll. For the 2016 election, a total of 25,000 police officers were deployed across the state to ensure peace and security during the 2016 polls, while 44 observer groups were accredited by the INEC monitors.
INEC
The role of the commission is critical in the election, which will set a new template for polls in the country due to the fallouts of COVID-19 pandemic. The benchmark will be used to conduct a similar poll in Ondo State in October. The commission has already cried out over the extra burden being imposed on it by the acrimony in the party ahead their primaries. It has threatened to ply the rules of engagement fully against any erring party. The warning was reinforced by the INEc chairman, Professor Mahood Yakubu recent that, “The process for Ondo State is scheduled for July 2 – 5, 2020. As you are aware, the conduct of primaries by political parties tends to be very acrimonious. The acrimony is carried forward into the electioneering and Election Day activities. Already, there are warning signals.The security agencies need to act proactively. An early engagement with political parties and aspirants is necessary to create the atmosphere for peaceful primaries and consequently peaceful elections.”
Logistics
Election in Nigeria hase become more about deep pockets. It has gone beyond the prismn of do-or-die, but controlled by the by cases of vote-buying and compromise. The perpetrators are becoming increasingly more ingenious than the INEC in its mechanism designed to checkmate politicians. Neither has other stakeholders, including law enforcement agencies rose above the challenge of vote-buying and other electoral offences bordering on inducement of votes. Instead, the security agencies are often accused of complicity. So, the question is; who will be the highest bidder, as delegates and prospective voters seem ready to be compromised because of leadership failure?
Campaign issues
In the run-up to the 2016 election, little or no attention was on if the candidates had any blueprint to address the fundamentals: economy, unemployment, insecurity, erratic energy supply and the healthcare system. In other words, a wrong agenda dominated the political space instead of issues of critical economic growth and development. After all, Anselm Adodo, the director of Africa Centre for Integral Research and Development, which focuses on new approaches to social, economic and political reform in Africa, based on African culture and world views once said: “In Nigeria, the fastest way to become rich is not by becoming an entrepreneur, a thinker or a good person. Gaining political power gives unhindered access to state money.”
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