Climate change can lead to 123m malaria cases, 532,000 additional deaths in Africa — UNILAG VC

The Vice Chancellor of the University of Lagos, Professor Folasade Ogunsola, has said climate change could lead to 123 million additional malaria cases and 532,000 additional deaths in Africa between 2024 and 2050 under the current control levels.

The professor of medical microbiology, who also said climate change is a threat to humans, animals, and the environment, observed that there is an urgent need for climate-resilient malaria control strategies and robust emergency response systems to safeguard progress towards malaria eradication.

She stated this while delivering the 1st University distinguished lecture of the Federal University of Health Sciences, Ila-Orangun, Osun State, on Tuesday.

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The UNILAG don added that the probability of winning or losing battles against the effects of climate change depends mostly on activities in the city, calling for the commitment of all stakeholders in achieving climate action.

Speaking on the topic ‘Climate Change, Cities and Infection: The Triple Nexus Shaping Urban Health Futures In Africa’, Professor Ogunsola, said climate change is amplifying existing urban vulnerabilities, adding that mitigating the threat requires renewed focus on climate-resilient control strategies at all levels.

The lecturer declared climate change as the health challenge of the 21st century, and listed some of the solutions to include investment in more climate-resilient health and supply chain infrastructure, enhancement in emergency early warning and response mechanisms as well as decentralisation of vertical and horizontal health service delivery to foster local resilience.

She said, “We integrate 25 years of African data on climate, malaria burden and control, socioeconomic factors, and extreme weather.

“Using a geotemporal model linked to an ensemble of climate projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP 2-4.5) scenario5, we estimate the future impact of climate change in malaria burden in Africa, including both ecological and disruptive effects.”

“Our findings indicatethat climate change could lead to 123 million(projection range 49.5 million to 203 million) additional malaria cases and 532,000 (195,000-912,000) additional deaths in Africa between 2024 and 2050 under current control levels.

“Contrary to the prevailing focus on ecological mechanisms, extreme weather events emerge as the primary driver of increased risk, accounting for 79% (50-94%) of additional cases and 93% (70-100%) of additional deaths. Most increases stem from intensification in existing endemic areas rather than range expansion, with significant regional variation in impact.

“These results highlight the urgent need for climate-resilient malaria control strategies and robust emergency response systems to safeguard progress towards malaria eradication.

“Mitigating this threat will require renewed focus on climate-resilient control strategies at international and local levels.”

“Despite ongoing advocacy on the need to address climate change, practices including industrial emissions, burning of fossil fuel and deforestation continue to be on the rise in Nigeria especially in cities.”

“At this maiden, distinguished lecturer, professor Folasade Ogunsola, described climate change as a threat to humans, animals, and the environmental.”

In his own remark, Professor Akeem Lasisi, the Vice Chancellor of the Federal University Of Health Sciences, Ila-Orangun; Professor Simeon Bamire, OAU Vice Chancellor; Former Osun State governor, Bisi Akande and other dignitaries graced the occasion.