Bago, Sanni and the 2027 succession battle in Nigeria

The race towards the Niger State Government House in 2013 appears to have started even before the 2027 elections. In this report, Aliyu Hamagam looks into the maneuvering and permutations between the incumbent, Governor Mohammed Bago and the Senator representing Niger East senatorial district, Senator Mohammed Musa, who is interested in the seat.

Interest in Nigeria’s evolving political landscape is not only a driving force of alliances upon which loyalty is shaped and perhaps betrayal rationalised; it also assumes a deified status that is not only fiercely guarded but also defended like a fortress by political elite thus, like in every human endeavour, interests in politics remain constant.

Across the country, political relationships that were once rooted in mutual trust and shared visions are gradually giving way under the weight of competing interests.

Nowhere is this scenario more evident than in Niger State, where longstanding political allies have been unraveling over a grip for power consolidation by entrenched interests that left the state’s political space fragmented.

At the center of this unfolding drama are two prominent figures, the incumbent governor, Mohammed Umaru Bago, and Senator Mohammed Sani Musa, also known as 313.

Political synergy between the two political giants that was once seen as a source of inspiration is now widely perceived to be under strain.

Musa is not only one of the political heavyweights of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) in the state but also one of the closest, if not the most trusted, political allies of Governor Bago.

In the build-up to the 2023 general elections, Senator Musa was one of the driving forces in Governor Bago’s campaign team, who had not only been dominant in the campaign train of the governor but also believed to have provided substantial financial backing at most of the critical moments of the campaign.

At one point, it was speculated that Governor Bago’s campaign drive was almost about to be stalled as it had suffered some financial constraints until 313, as the senator is fondly called, came to the rescue.

Musa, who is the present senator representing Niger East, otherwise referred to as Zone B, is a real-time player who built a reputation as a grassroots politician with significant influence and in recent times was adjudged the most popular politician in the state.

Cracks in the relationship reportedly began to surface with Senator Musa, the 1990 graduate of Ahmadu Bello University Zaria, who championed a series of constituencies’ projects and programs that earned him unparalleled popularity within his senatorial district. Shortly after Bago assumed office, he started to play the cards indifferently.

The rift between the duo appeared in the public domain when the governor was said to have unilaterally dropped the names of the candidates submitted by Senator Musa in total disregard to the gentleman’s agreement earlier sealed while constituting his cabinet.

The senator, who has been a successful businessman before joining politics, is at present a second-term serving senator.

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He was said to have been promised to bring a candidate for the position of the Secretary to the State Government (SSG) and perhaps some other positions, which the governor later allegedly swept away.

The introduction of foreign scholarship for the indigent that runs into billions of naira, apart from executing physical projects that have direct bearing on the constituents, including building of hospitals and construction of roads by Senator Musa, added to his ever-growing popularity, which became a source of worry for the governor.

In March, Senator Musa awarded a scholarship to the first batch of 50 indigent students to study in Russia.

In his farewell message to the departing students, Musa said the initiative was driven by the belief that access to quality education should not be a privilege but a right for all citizens, regardless of religion or political affiliation.

“We are investing in the future of our young minds who will become leaders of tomorrow. This opportunity is a call to excellence and service. You must distinguish yourselves not only academically but also in character and integrity,” he said.

Tensions escalated further in April following a viral video in which Governor Bago was seen addressing APC supporters in Suleja Emirate, suggesting that constituents should reconsider their support for Senator Musa if he failed to meet expectations.

The remarks fueled speculation of a deepening rift, with political observers interpreting it as the formal signpost of a frosty relationship between the duo.

Pundits were of the view that the governor’s statement was deliberate in an attempt to instigate the people from Senator Musa’s senatorial district to go against him probably, as part of the governor’s political machination to clip the wings of the senator ahead of next general elections.

Musa, who appears ambitious, did not only embark on these impactful interventions that go beyond the borders of his senatorial district with an intent to have a smooth ride for only the 2027 election, but instead he was seen as somebody working for 2031.

Fillers indicated that all interventions rolled out by the senator were all part of his broader plan to expand his frontiers with a view to position himself towards his 2031 governorship ambition.

Niger State is one of the few states, if not the only state, in the country that has maintained rotational governorship within the three senatorial districts.

Since the inception of the present democratic dispensation, the zoning has been maintained in the state irrespective of the political party at the helm of affairs.

By his body language, the governor is uncomfortable with Senator Musa as a successor at the expiration of his second term in office for a reason only known to him; it is the turn of senator’s zone to produce the next governor.

Senator Musa’s ambition and perhaps many other reasons that are yet to be made public formed part of what informed the governor’s hard stand that draws a line by ensuring that the senator did not come closer to the seat of power in the state come 2031 and that the first step is to thwart his ambition of going back to the Senate in the next general election.

The governor, who was categorical in his statement while in Suleja, said, “313,” referring to Senator Musa, “it is compulsory for you to do well.”

He added by telling the people of the Suleja emirate that “If he fails to do well for you, we should change him. But if he changes, we should leave him, and I know he would change.”

The fight reached a crescendo when Senator Musa, while flagging off his foreign scholarship program, said that he would have run against the incumbent Governor Bago in 2027 if not for the zoning arrangement in the state.

He said, “We are one broom. But who are the people building APC? Am I not one of those building APC? I have a question. We are in one party. Our party does not stop anyone from contesting.

“Today, let me tell you, I swear by Allah, if not for the fact that we had zoned the governorship seat, I would have contested for the seat. I have helped some people to win elections, but they are going about to discredit me. No matter what they may do, I remain the strongest APC member and politician in the state,” he said.

The situation has been further complicated by the emergence of Barrister Bello Bawa Bwari into the race for the Niger East senatorial seat under the APC. Bwari’s emergence will overheat the contest, with many considering him as a candidate with strong backing from the governor.

To support their argument, all serving local government chairmen that made up the senatorial district, with the exception of the chairman of Rafi Local Government Area, who was indisposed, were in the company of Barrister Bwari when he went for the purchase of the form for ‘Expression of Interest’.

However, despite all the odds, Senator Musa has been insisting that there is no rift between him and the governor.

All fingers are now crossed, as only time shall tell.