Obstacles before PDP, APC candidates in Bayelsa bye-election

EBIOWEI LAWAL writes on the strengths and challenges facing candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the senatorial bye-elections in Bayelsa State coming up on October 31.

It is no longer news that some top political heavyweights are beginning to warm up for the 2020 Bayelsa West and Bayelsa Central senatorial districts bye-election in Bayelsa State. Even the fact that the dreaded coronavirus pandemic still poses a lot of danger, the incumbent Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the All Progressive Congress (APC) and other parties are keen on winning the seat. The question, however, begging for answer is: did political parties obey the INEC’s revised regulations and guidelines for election during this Covid-19 Pandemic era? On Saturday September 5, 2020 and Thursday September 3, 2020, the leading parties: PDP and the APC conducted their primaries respectively and their delegates and supporters thronged venues in carnival style, neglecting established safety protocol for Covid-19.

Irrespective of this, four candidates have emerged from the two leading political parties. In PDP, the former governor of the state,  Seriake Dickson, emerged as  the candidate for Bayelsa West, while former chairman of the party in the state, Mr. Moses Cleopas, emerged as candidate for Bayelsa Central. In the APC, former deputy governor during Timipre Sylva’s administration, Peremobowei Ebebi emerged as  the candidate for Bayelsa West, while the younger brother to former governor, late Alamieyeseigha, Abel Ebifemowei, emerged as the candidate for Bayelsa Central.

Bayelsa West

Bayelsa West senatorial district comprises Sagbama and Ekeremor Local Government Areas of the state. Sagbama has a   population of 186,869 and voting strength of 143, 728, While Ekeremor has a population of 270, 257 and voting strength of 137, 518. And over the years the two LGAs have consciously obeyed an uncompromised verbal zoning arrangement for the two seats in the upper and lower chambers of the National Assembly. For the seat in the Senate, Sagbama took the first shot in 1999 when it produced Senator Emmanuel Diffa, whose tenure according to the zoning arrangement elapsed in 2003. After Senator Diffa, Senator KojoBrambaifa took over in 2003 and handed over the baton to Ekeremor that produced Senator Heineken Lokpobiri who held that position until 2015. An attempt by Senator Lokpobiri to return to the Senate for a third term met stiff opposition, as the people of Ekeremor took his ambition as a flight of fancy.

During the 2015 general election, victory for the candidate of the PDP, Senator FostaOgula was a safe bet, as he won the election with a wide margin in both Ekeremor and Sagbama. And 2019, under circumstances that could not be explained, Senator Ogola was denied the ticket by his political party, PDP to return for a second term to completed the eight years tenure of Sagbama.

There were speculations however, that Hon. Dickson, the governor then, had plans to go to the Senate after he completed his tenure as governor in 2020. And in order to safe guard his ambition, he needed to sponsor a candidate that is loyal enough to run with his vision. According to political pundits, the vision is to sponsor his then commission of works and infrastructure, Senator Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo, to the Senate in 2019, and make him deputy governor in 2020.

In so doing, the seat in the Senate for Bayelsa West would become vacant and a bye-election would be declared in 2020. As it turned out, Ewhrudjakpo won the party primaries and went on to win the general election against his closest rival, Captain Matthew Karimo, who is also from Sagbama. As it stands today, Ewhrudjakpo is the deputy governor and Dickson is the candidate of the PDP that is set to complete the four-year tenure for Sagbama.

From all indications, the strength of Dickson in this election outweighs the strength of other candidates, considering the fact that he just left office as governor seven months ago. The incumbent governor who happens to be his political godson is the leader of his political party; all the chairmen and councilors from the two LGAs are his foot soldiers and for now, the zoning arrangement favours him. But, will Dickson leave the Senate after serving four years as prescribed by the zoning arrangement? That is the big question? According to reports, this question has raised a huge debate among stakeholders in Bayelsa West and is in turn, giving the camp of his opposition some level of hope. Dickson, on the other hand, is yet to say whether he intends to leave the Senate in 2024 or not.

Aside that fear is the issue that the APC candidate, Ebebi, is that it would not be politically equitable for Sagbama to produce a Senator while the current deputy governor is also from Sagbama. But some observerswere quick to dispel that postulation, saying there was nothing wrong with the arrangement because when Ebebi was deputy governor, Lokpobiri, who also hails from Ekeremor, was a senator.While Ebebi is from Ekeremor constituency 1, Lokpobiri is from constituency 2 Except the fact that the zoning arrangement does not favour him, other odds that are going well for Ebebi are that while he served as a member of the State House of Assembly and later as deputy governor; he was financially generous to all in dire need and created employment opportunities for youths and women across the state may give him sympathy votes.

Zoning    

Bayelsa Central senatorial district comprises Yenagoa, Southern Ijaw and Kolokuma/Opokuma Local Government Areas. Yenagoa has a population of 352, 285 and voting strength of 208, 962; Southern Ijaw has a population of 321, 808 and a voting strength of 185, 778, while Kolokuma/Opokuma has 79, 266 population and voting strength of 57, 480. In this senatorial district, in spite of the fact that it has the highest number of votes, the votes of Yenagoa have always been divided, with that of Southern Ijawalways the decider when it comes to election. And another thing that is peculiar about Bayelsa Central is the fact that the zoning arrangement has been altered several times for several reasons.

During the 1999 election, the area had the opportunity to begin its zoning arrangement on a healthy note, as the late DeprieyeAlamieyeseigha sponsored and stood by his Southern Ijaw brother, Senator Brigidi, against stakeholders from Yenagoa and Kolokuma/Opokuma who felt his decision was against their interest. Senator Brigidiserved eight years in the Senate (1999-2007).

It happened in 2007 after the political squabble between Goodluck Jonathan and NdutimiAlaibe in the PDP was settled. It was agreed that the senatorial slot should go to Yenagoa LGA. This was made possible by the fact that Bayelsathen was almost completely a PDP state. It was on this mandate that Senator Emmanuel Paulker went to the Senate.

Ironically, in 2015 when it was time for the baton to move to Kolokuma/Opokuma, Senator Paulker indicated the interest to go for a third term. In a keen contest, Senator Paulker refused to back out even though the governor then, Dickson nominated Senator DouyeDiri, who is from Kolokuma/Opokuma to fly the PDP ticket. It took the intervention of then President Jonathan to compel the PDP to give the party ticket to Senator Paulker, while Senator Diri was settled with a ticket to the House of Representatives. For the second time, the zoning arrangement was altered. Then in 2019, Senator Paulker stepped aside, making way for Diri to go to the Senate, and eventually became governor in 2020.

In what appears to be a tradeoff, the senatorial seat, which should rightly be the turn of Kolokuma/Opokuma, going by the zoning arrangement, has been zoned to Southern Ijaw by the two leading parties. This, according to stakeholders from the Bayelsa Central, is an alteration of the zoning arrangement.

Now that the parties have chosen their candidates, the zoning arrangement within the LGA is generating more controversies. Southern Ijaw has four state constituencies. Constituency one comprises communities such as Amassoma the largest community in Bayelsa, Otuan and Amatolo communities among others.Constituency two consists of Oporoma, the headquarters of the LGA,  Ayama, Angiama and others, while constituency three is made up of communities such as Igbomotoru, Ekowe, Peremabiri, Diebu, Opuamaand others. Meanwhile, constituency four is made up of Koloama, Olugbobiri, korokorosei, Ogboinbirietal.

By the zoning arrangement, constituency one where the APC candidate comes from has not had the opportunity to produce a senator. It had the opportunity to produce a House of Representatives’ member in 2003. The lawmaker then, HonourableEbikekeme Ere, spent barely a year in the National Assembly before an election petition tribunal sacked him.

In the case of the constituency, where the immediate past Speaker of the state House of Assembly and an aspirant in the PDP Senate primaries, Honourable Monday Obolo-Bubou, comes from, has been able to produce a member of the House, Hononourable Donald Egberibein from 2007 to 2011.

Then in 2011,Honoursable Henry Ofongo, who hails from constituency three, took over and later handed over to the current member, who hails from constituency four, HonourablePreyeOseke, in 2019. But for the seat of senator, only constituency three has filled the post in the person of Senator Brigidi..

But the many troubles for the PDP candidate is the fact that the APC has a very strong hold of constituency four, where he hails from because the candidate of the APC in the last governorship election, Chief David Lyon and the current House of Representatives member, who contested under the APC, HonourableOseke, are all from constituency four in Southern Ijaw.