Who will fund the ECOWAS war?

The chants of “TinubuYunwa” (Tinubu hunger or Tinubu we are hungry) by protesters in the northern parts of the country were recently a strong, mournful message. It was a grim verdict by the protesters, who were predominantly women, from the densely populated Rigasa part of Kaduna State. Their message was plain and direct, but it was still like a metaphor to many other Nigerians. Indeed, the Kaduna women did what other zones of the country have been afraid to openly and sincerely talk about, let alone act upon. There has been stoical posturing and useless squirms whereas the gnawing economic hardship is gradually and steadily becoming a huge bite. It is not out of place for Nigerians to repeatedly highlight the worsening poverty and uncontrolled inflation. It is also not a show of contempt for the government. It simply means that euphemism cannot contain the current realities in Nigeria any longer, and also shows that the people are battling more than hunger.

Hunger forced the Kaduna women and their children to leave their homes, took to the streets and spoke in eloquent terms with their voices. The women had placards that said nothing. They were armed only with empty placards which aptly depicted empty stomachs. However, their blank placards were not an indication that their brains were blank. They knew exactly where their problem was coming from, and they named it. They also named the problem: hunger!

The Yoruba posit with ample correctness that when hunger takes its position in the stomach, nothing else — not even sweet words — would find a space to occupy in that belly. That informs the reason why Nigerians have not been able to understand nearly every logic put forward by the Tinubu-led government on the need to wrestle power from the junta that snatched it from Mohamed Bazoum in Niger Republic. The hungry Nigerian is not interested in what a military leader is saying in his Niger nor is he interested in what ECOWAS is trying to do differently in such a critical time. The hungry, beaten Nigerian wants his life back.

For those who still manage to cast a glance at the explanations of the government to hear what was last said about Niger and ECOWAS and the involvement of Nigeria, the question has been: “Who will fund the ECOWAS war in Niger?” Which country in the West African sub-region is balanced enough to cough out the necessary cash and sundry resources needed to prosecute a war in a country as vast as Niger Republic? How much would a country in the coalition bring to the table and for how long?

As things stand, Mali and Burkina Faso are not part of the coalition and their position has fractured the ECOWAS heads of state and government. Both countries have deployed warplanes and are said to be ready to respond to any military threat from ECOWAS. The regional body is not going to Niger as one indivisible entity and would have received contributions from the dissenting members.

On another plane, the countries angling to commence a military operation in Niger, to restore democracy there, have their own nagging domestic battles. Many of these countries are bedevilled by abysmal political leadership which has repeatedly caused violent change of government at intervals. Some of them also have civilian governments which would transmute to a dictatorship through forceful constitutional changes and blatant manipulation. These atrocious developments, aided by often orchestrated high poverty rates, have kept the sub-region in perpetual servitude and want.

Problems such as we have in our hands in Niger had taken place in Sierra Leone, Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Guinea Bissau, The Gambia, and ECOWAS had intervened by sending troops to help end the ensuing conflicts. ECOWAS had also helped Mali battle Islamist insurgents in 2013, and in 2017 was used to midwife the transfer of power in The Gambia.

How have these countries fared post-ECOWAS intervention? The threats of military intervention have not ceased neither are the reigning governments sending the right messages. Their messages are not encouraging and when they maintain civilian posture, they are dictatorial in actual character. President George Oppong Weah of Liberia complained that ECOWAS does not often wield the stick when civilian leaders alter the constitution or brazenly rig elections.

Poverty is one huge factor in all that happens in the sub-region. Interestingly, the main players in the Niger crisis are all battling poverty and corruption — both of character in the leaders and economy. Alassane Ouatarra of Côte D’Ivoire became president in 2010 after a protracted battle with Lauren Gbagbo. Since 2010, he has engineered the alteration of the country’s constitution to suit his third and fourth terms. The country’s roughly 27.5 million population has a poverty rate of 39.5 per cent. Benin Republic, with a modest population of 13 million people has a poverty rate of 38.5 per cent; Ghana’s 32.8 million people have 24 per cent of them living below the poverty line while Nigeria, the giant among them — in terms of population and economy — has more than just poverty as its albatross.

Beyond poverty, which World Data puts slightly above 40 per cent in the country’s 213 million population, Nigeria has insecurity as another major concern. Insurgency, Boko Haram, and banditry are lingering problems that have been transforming, transmuting and mutating in parts of (especially northern) Nigeria. These are not even the major considerations for the hundreds of Nigerians who have been vehement in their call against military intervention in Niger. A good number of senior elements in northern Nigeria have stated more than once that Niger has a special place in their hearts because of filial relationships and economic marriages. Nigeria and Niger, going by the summation many states which border the country, have special places in their hearts because they relate more with Niger than with their compatriots in southern Nigeria. So, apart from not looking at the ECOWAS/Niger issue as such, some northern Nigerians see the impending military action as Nigeria versus Niger.

When the sizes of the populations of the various countries are considered, Nigeria stands out. It’s also supposed to be so with their economies. But the Nigerian economy is currently in tatters. The country is currently servicing its debts with about 100 per cent of its earnings. Research groups and other bodies have claimed that military operations in Niger could cost as much as $2billion yearly. Nigeria’s ability to absorb this cost or most of it would further sink the country’s badly ailing economy. But without Nigeria’s money, the type that was the saving grace for ECOMOG of those days gone, where would the money come from? Reports claim that Nigeria lost an estimated $4billion to crises in Sierra Leone while $8billion was sunk into the Liberian civil war. These are apart from the human and other equipment that went into these crises.

With “TinubuYunwa” already laid ahead, what should Nigerians be looking at with regard to Niger? Where would the money come from? President Tinubu said he has been the one restraining ECOWAS from igniting the military action in Niger. Mr Chairman ECOWAS, keep doing that. You may also ask them how much they are going to put on the table for the war after the initial contributions. Do not let them pit you against many unsavoury factors. Do not throw away your democratic credentials to please some powers.

 

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