Presidential candidates scheme to control North

The 2023 presidential campaign is scheduled to kick off on September 28. In this piece, Northern Bureau Chief, MUHAMMAD SABIU looks at the strengths and weaknesses of five presidential candidates, especially in the North.

Not underestimating the chances of candidates of the various parties for the 2023 presidential election, there appears to be five of them that have dominated the political space since they became standard-bearers of their parties. The more resounding names are Senator Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Mr Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigerian People›s Party (NNPP) and Mr Dumebi Kachikwu of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). For every electoral cycle, presidential candidates are known to take their campaign to every geopolitical zone of the country with the intention of getting as many votes as possible across board. Whether in the North or South, the scramble for votes is fierce as the winning candidate must receive a majority of the votes and over 25 percent of the votes in at least 24 of the 36 states in the country.

The strategic North

The Northern zone comprises of three geopolitical zones: the North-West, North-Central and the North-East. With the quantum of total votes of the North, there is always a serious scramble for votes of the zone. In fact, the recently concluded Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) again justified the fact that the North will always be the beautiful bride of politicians in elections. In the exercise, the North had the highest number of 6,359,711 registrants as against the South with 5,939,233 new registrants. According to the present INEC register, the North-West zone, which comprises the seven states of Sokoto, Zamfara, Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and Jigawa, has a total of 22.67 million registered voters, is the highest number of registered voters. The North-Central with over 14.1million registered voters has the second highest number of registered voters followed by the Northeast with over 12. 8 million registered voters. In the present voter register, the northern region has at least half of the number of the total voters in the country with a total number of 49.57 million. As it has always been, the region will once again be an important battle ground for all the contestants. In the past weeks, it is not a coincidence that presidential candidates and their foot soldiers have continued to transverse the North, apparently in recognition of its electoral value.

Why North-West is critical

In the recent 2015 and 2019 presidential elections, the North-West showed that votes from the zone are critical to whoever will win the election. In both elections, for instance, President Muhammadu Buhari got the highest votes in the zone. While in 2015, Buhari’s candidate polled 46 percent of the entire votes cast, he amassed 39 percent of the total votes cast in the 2019 election. Generally, the number of votes that Buhari got from the North-West enabled him defeat his opponents, the former president Goodluck Jonathan and former vice president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. Again, the All Progressives Congress (APC) will hope for similar electoral feat from the zone in 2023. Speaking about the critical nature of the North-West, the APC senatorial candidate for Kaduna Central, Muhammad Sani Dattijo, said: “The North-West zone is critical to the party›s victory in 2023. So whoever wins in the zone will be the next president.” National vice-chairman of the APC North-West, Salihu Lukman, said the APC was all-out to have the most voting number of the North-West. “We will not give a breathing space for other parties to maneuvre in subsequent elections. The North-West is for APC,” Lukman said. The APC is not leaving any stone to amass as much votes as possible of the zone as it has embarked on regular consultations with the seven states in the zone to see how the zonal office and the state chapters can work together. The party has also reached out to aspirants who lost out in the battle for tickets. The zonal office is also consulting widely to promote the Tinubu/Kashim Shettima ticket. Also, the APC looks to be in good stead in the zone with six out of the seven governors of the zone. Only Sokoto State is controlled by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). At various fora, the likes of Governor Nasir El›rufai (Kaduna), Governor Abdullahi Ganduje (Kano), Governor Bello Masari (Katsina), Governor Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi), Governor Badaru Abubakar (Jigawa) and Governor Bello Matawalle (Zamfara) have all promised to deliver their states for Tinubu. The governors are also sponsoring different support groups for Tinubu/Shettima, to include the Tinubu Support Group and the APC Northwest Stakeholders. Though the APC appears optimistic of victory, it faces issues of high cost of living, insecurity, kidnapping, banditry, cattle rustling and anti-people policies adopted by some of the state governments.

For the PDP and Atiku, the North-West was once its stronghold until 2015 when its lost control to the APC. The task before the PDP is clearly to strategise to bounce back to reckoning in the zone. True to the task at hand, several support groups to include Atiku Support Organizations, Atiku PDP Ambassadors, Atikulated are all out, reaching out to people and marketing their presidential candidate. The party will be banking on its sole PDP governor, Governor Aminu Tamubwal (Sokoto), its few senators, members of the house of representatives, members of the house of assembly to woo electorates to vote its presidential candidate, Atiku. The PDP still boasts of being a formidable force in the zone having produced past national party leaders, former ministers, former senators, generals, ambassadors and party elders. In campaigning, the PDP will also be talking about the fact that it is out to rescue and relieve Nigerians of the hardship many are presently facing. However, there are those who argue that people are yet to forget the sour past antecedents of the party. To this end, some pundits are skeptical whether the party can be entrusted with power again.

Meanwhile, the Labour Party and its presidential candidate, Mr Peter Obi, are still trying to find its footing in the zone. The party is simply not popular in the zone. In recent times, however, the party is gaining popularity among the youths. No doubt, youths of the North-West zone are part of the 71 percent of the number of people that have registered to collect their voter card. Relying on the huge number of youth voters, the Labour party may pull off some surprises. Suffice it to note that concerted efforts by few elites to push for Obi’s candidature have been futile. The spokesman of the Northern Elders Forum, Hakeem Baba Ahmed openly declared his support for Obi›s candidature. But some pundits argued that he is doing so because of his brother, who is the Vice presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed.

Many people in the zone see Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso, the candidate of NNPP, as out to play ‘a spoiler role’ than being out to win the election. Pundits hold that his new party, the NNPP, will make its greatest impact in Kano apart from one or two other states in the zone. For several observers, NNPP is a party for the future.

Dubemi Kachikwu of ADC is largely unknown in the zone. Two weeks ago, his party came to Kaduna to mobilise supporters from the North West under a lecture series held at the Arewa House. It will be most difficult for Kachikwu’s candidature to fly in the zone.

Strengths and weaknesses of candidates in North-Central

The North-Central, which is made up of Nasarawa, Kogi, Benue, Niger, Kwara and Plateau, now has 14.1 million voters in INEC register. The zone is the second most important zone in the region due to its voting strength. Out of the five governors in the zone, APC has four governors, while PDP has the governor of Benue. Bearing this in mind, the probability of the APC or Tinubu having more votes than other presidential candidates is high. But, like the Northwest, the zone is also a strong base of the PDP when the party once held sway. All the five states were once the stronghold of PDP from 1999 to 2015, until they were swept away by the APC tsunami. In the 2023 election, the APC will like to repeat its feats of 2015 and 2019. However, it is a fact that, in the zone, religion plays a role in people’s choice of candidates to vote for. However, the power of incumbency might be used to get votes for the APC presidential candidate, Tinubu. Tinubu is expected to get good number of votes from Nasarawa where the National Chairman of the party, Abdullahi Adamu, hails from; Kogi which has a diehard Buhari supporter as governor in person of Governor Yahaya Bello and Governor Sani Bello of Niger state who might be supported by a general to garner votes for their presidential candidate. Plateau governor, Simon Lalong, who is the chairman of the Northern governors forum may also use his influence to get votes. But in states like Kwara and Benue, Atiku may have the upper hand. Though, Kwara has an APC governor, it is expected to be a tight race in scramble for votes as the influence of a former president of the senate, Bukola Saraki, cannot be wished away. The NNPP is not popular in the zone. Meanwhile, religion will play a significant role with the North-Central mostly dominated by Christians. The religion factor may make candidates of the Labour party and ADC get some votes in the zone.

Chances of candidates in North-East

The North-East is made up of Yobe, Borno, Taraba, Adamawa, Bauchi and Gombe with a total number of 12.8 million registered voters. Interestingly too, it has two political gladiators that will test their supremacy in the zone. Like the North-west, the North-east will also be a battle ground for the presidential candidates. Four out of the six governors in the zone are of the APC extraction, while two are PDP governors. Out of the four APC governors, two states, Borno and Yobe have consistently voted for APC for the past two decades. Thus, with a PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar and APC vice presidential candidate, Kashim Shettima from the zone, the scramble for votes will be fierce. Both APC and PDP are popular in zone. The candidates of NNPP, LP and ADC can only get a few votes as the real battle will be between Atiku and Shettima who are from the zone. Whether the issue of Muslim-Muslim ticket of the APC will have an impact will be determined by how well the minority are united.

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