Despite COP26 pact, experts warn 2030 climate target updates have stalled

As negotiators from about 200 countries meet on Monday in Bonn, Germany, for talks on how to reignite momentum on tackling global warming, experts have warned that progress on 2030 climate target updates has stalled.

The Bonn negotiation talks are set to prepare the grounds for a new round of UN talks slated to take place later this year in Egypt.

A new analysis published by Climate Action Tracker (CAT) at the weekend shows there has been not much progress on new, more ambitious 2030 climate targets and participation in sectoral initiatives since COP26 in Glasgow last year.

CAT is an independent scientific analysis birthed by a collaboration between Climate Analytics — a non-profit organisation based in Berlin, Germany — and NewClimate Institute, a non-profit institute that supports research and implementation of action against climate change around the globe.

The stalled progress, CAT says, goes against the clear agreement of the Glasgow Pact to update national 2030 climate targets in 2022.

The implications of the stalled progress could be dangerous and Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics fears that “The world appears to be sleepwalking to disaster.” He is worried that “governments appear to think taking more action is too hard” and warned that “what will be more difficult is dealing with a three-degree world.”

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“Already this year we’ve seen horrific impacts, like the heatwave in India and Pakistan, and floods in the same region. This is just the beginning,” he said.

Without increased government action, the world will still emit twice the greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 than is allowed under the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement. The world is heading to a warming of 2.4°C with 2030 targets and even higher, 2.7°C, with current policies, CAT says.

The analysis warns that with the looming emissions gap in 2030, it is important that all governments revisit and strengthen their climate targets, noting that it is not enough for governments to make marginal or no improvements.

For Niklas Höhne of NewClimate Institute, “We need to see action, whether it’s signing up to the sectoral initiatives released in Glasgow, or ramping up renewables.”

“The EU could take the lead as it’s already set to overachieve its renewables targets. It would be good to see at least one big emitter to step up and take a lead now to bring others along,” he said.